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1/5/17-1/8/17 Southern System.


John1122

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20 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I'm gonna hope the WWA 1 inch can verify. Then watch the 5 different rain events the GFS is currently advertising probably all come to pass over the next two weeks.  

Ditto that John. Guarantee those pan out. It appears our best hope was with the first wave of which trended north and leaves us in a gap between the two for the most part. A dry tongue of sorts.

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5 hours ago, PowellVolz said:


Was that during the 2 week stretch where snow was on the ground the whole time and we got below zero a few mornings?


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5 hours ago, PowellVolz said:


Was that during the 2 week stretch where snow was on the ground the whole time and we got below zero a few mornings?


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It was the Miller A that was supposed to stay mainly East of the area according to most models and forecasters.

    Feb. 2015 was the long stretch cold/snowy one as 35 to 45 inches fell here in Lee county in about a 3 week period. 16 below zero at my home the 20th. 20 below reported in Pennington gap.

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Here's the latest disco from MRX:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
355 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)...
Clouds will increase across the forecast area this morning, ahead
of a clipper system that will push through the area this evening
through Friday morning. High temperatures today will reach the
upper 30s across the Cumberland Plateau and southwest Virginia, the
lower 40s across the Tennessee Valley, and the mid 40s near the
TN/GA line before colder air rushes in behind the arctic front.

Rain showers will change over to snow this evening across the
northern Plateau and Cumberland Mountains, then snow showers will
spread further south overnight. With overnight lows in the 20s,
snow will accumulate and cause some travel difficulties --
especially on untreated roadways. Total snowfall through Friday
morning will range from 1-3 inches (with locally higher amounts)
across northeast TN and southwest VA to 0.5-1 inches across the
northern Tennessee Valley to a few tenths south of I-40.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)...
As the first snow maker leaves the area tonight, a second system
starts to wind up in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Models have been
consistently showing this system for the last several days, but
location is everything, and that is where the models have been a bit
more inconsistent with it. ECMWF has been fairly steady over the
last several days with sfc low moving along the northern Gulf coast
Friday and moving off the SE coast Friday night. GFS and NAM have
also been depicting low in the northern Gulf, but the track has been
a bit further south. Models coming a bit more in line this morning
on the track which brings wintery precipitation right to our eastern
and southern doorsteps. Presently there is consensus among the SREF,
GFS, ECMWF, and NAM that snow will be primarily confined to the
extreme eastern portion of the area and southwest North Carolina.
Similarly, snowfall totals look to be on the order of 1-2 inches in
northeast Tennessee increasing to 2-3 inches over the southern third
of this area. Going back to the fact that location is everything,
a slight change in the surface low track could have significant
implications on snowfall in our area. A bit further south and the
area in northeast Tennessee would see nearly nothing, a bit further
north and portions of the East Tennessee Valley could see some
accumulations overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Certainly
need to keep a close watch on the model handling of this system
over the next run or two.
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Here's the latest disco from MRX:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
355 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)...
Clouds will increase across the forecast area this morning, ahead
of a clipper system that will push through the area this evening
through Friday morning. High temperatures today will reach the
upper 30s across the Cumberland Plateau and southwest Virginia, the
lower 40s across the Tennessee Valley, and the mid 40s near the
TN/GA line before colder air rushes in behind the arctic front.

Rain showers will change over to snow this evening across the
northern Plateau and Cumberland Mountains, then snow showers will
spread further south overnight. With overnight lows in the 20s,
snow will accumulate and cause some travel difficulties --
especially on untreated roadways. Total snowfall through Friday
morning will range from 1-3 inches (with locally higher amounts)
across northeast TN and southwest VA to 0.5-1 inches across the
northern Tennessee Valley to a few tenths south of I-40.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)...
As the first snow maker leaves the area tonight, a second system
starts to wind up in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Models have been
consistently showing this system for the last several days, but
location is everything, and that is where the models have been a bit
more inconsistent with it. ECMWF has been fairly steady over the
last several days with sfc low moving along the northern Gulf coast
Friday and moving off the SE coast Friday night. GFS and NAM have
also been depicting low in the northern Gulf, but the track has been
a bit further south. Models coming a bit more in line this morning
on the track which brings wintery precipitation right to our eastern
and southern doorsteps. Presently there is consensus among the SREF,
GFS, ECMWF, and NAM that snow will be primarily confined to the
extreme eastern portion of the area and southwest North Carolina.
Similarly, snowfall totals look to be on the order of 1-2 inches in
northeast Tennessee increasing to 2-3 inches over the southern third
of this area. [B]Going back to the fact that location is everything,
a slight change in the surface low track could have significant
implications on snowfall in our area. A bit further south and the
area in northeast Tennessee would see nearly nothing, a bit further
north and portions of the East Tennessee Valley could see some
accumulations overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Certainly
need to keep a close watch on the model handling of this system
over the next run or two.[/B]
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10 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Is it just me or do they continue to push the storm track to the NW?  Seems like that pocket in southeastern Arkansas was much further south yesterday.  Central Oklahoma seems in line for more snow on the newer maps now as well.  

Not really the storm track that is changing. The increase to the North and West is due to stronger frontogenic convergence with a piece of Upper Level energy in the flow. The Two main areas of Snow are associated with 2 different forcing mechanisms, in other words . ..

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With the gradient of snow being so tight with the system(s), it's going to be very interesting to watch it unfold.  The west end of the valley could see around an inch or less, while areas just 50 miles further east could see 3+ per the GFS & now the NAM.  Meaning, if you aren't seeing snow in your area, you might not have to drive far to see a lot more.

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  • Mr Bob changed the title to 1/5/17-1/8/17 Southern System.
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