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1/5/17-1/8/17 Southern System.


John1122

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I think it is fair to say that not having one of the major models in line is concerning.  However, the GFS is known for suppression.  Here is the 12z 3K para NAM.  You can see the three systems.  One has already exited the area and is in the Atlantic.  Makes it very difficult to model.  Plenty of moving pieces.  It is a possibility this does the splits.  I don't want to wishcast.  But it is not a matter of proving a point...it is about figuring things out.  But the para below shows how tough it is for a model to put these moving pieces together. 

IMG_0319.PNG

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1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think it is fair to say that not having one of the major models in line is concerning.  However, the GFS is known for suppression.  Here is the 12z 3K para NAM.  You can see the three systems.  One has already exited the area and is in the Atlantic.  Makes it very difficult to model.  Plenty of moving pieces.  It is a possibility this does the splits.  I don't want to wishcast.  But it is not a matter of proving a point...it is about figuring things out.  But the para below shows how tough it is for a model to put these moving pieces together. 

IMG_0319.PNG

Yea there definitely are a lot of moving pieces, It's going to be fun to see how it all Plans out. 

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6 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Yea there definitely are a lot of moving pieces, It's going to be fun to see how it all Plans out. 

And that is what makes this a great hobby.  Even when a system "fails" there is plenty of opportunity to learn - not saying this one fails.   Great forum to learn on as well...plenty of great folks.

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The 500mb feature on the 12z GEM in the northwest is just about over NA.  Let's see if this does not cause a shift.  I am not sure when the newer model data(once it is over land) gets ingested - maybe 0z tonight.  IMO, it will get sampled much better now that it is over the US.  Certainly, the data from the energy now coming on board in CA will sharpen the focus...my guess would be 18z or 0z.  Feel free to add... This is for the timeframe 0z...i.e. the beginning of the run.

IMG_0321.PNG

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1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

i dont have much trust in the gefs and gfs runs anyone else think its missing somthing.

Do you have a reason not to? The Op GFS has been very consistent and is supported by its ensembles...you have to consider it as a possible solution at this point. 

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Looking back at the threat I accidentally placed in banter, it was 00z before the main storm arrived that saw the GFS make it's proper adjustment, it was 12 hours before when the NAM really got on board.

RGEM did the best in the short range. Euro did the best overall. The GFS and NAM kept developing the wave in the GOM too late for our area and thus the precip shield was always to our east.

Just have to wait and see if this is a repeat of the GFS/NAM are right vs the foreign models.

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