Reb Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Trying to temper my enthusiasm but all I can say is WOW. Storm hype is fixing to go up across social networks that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Wow, that's enough to bring the weather weenies (me) out of lurkdom... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 We've topped the hill on the coaster, almost everything is bound to be down from here but hopefully there's a lot of fun towards the end on this run. We're still likely to see Ens members that have nothing or next to it for us. As well as monster runs. Also, GGEM is way south again and very much less amplified. That's still a solution on the table. Though the GGEM has the worst verification scores at 500mb in this range out of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, John1122 said: We've topped the hill on the coaster, almost everything is bound to be down from here but hopefully there's a lot of fun towards the end on this run. We're still likely to see Ens members that have nothing or next to it for us. As well as monster runs. Also, GGEM is way south again and very much less amplified. That's still a solution on the table. Though the GGEM has the worst verification scores at 500mb in this range out of models. I like the ggem being south and suppressed for now. We have time for it to come north there. Hopefully the Euro either holds serve or moves into the direction the GFS shows. Still plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cotton7204 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Geez, this one wasn't a weenie run, it was a keilbasa run. If the euro gets even remote close to this, Its going to be hard not to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 12z GEM just whiffs on the storm. Would like to see better consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Looks to me like the GEM misses due to lack of separation between the two systems. It is almost like the model could not decide which piece of energy to jump on. Suppression city due to first storm driving the second south. Everything gets strung out. Hopefully the GFS is not on its own here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z GEM just whiffs on the storm. Would like to see better consensus. I agree. Sadly, we're probably a couple days away from getting any real consensus at this point. As the ensembles have shown, all options are still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Remember earlier in winter when the models would depict 1040+ highs in the upper midwest, one even in Illinois, yet rain here with lows to our south and I said it shouldn't be showing that? This is what the models should show with that upper atmosphere set up. Granted, at the time of verification the HP was in Idaho so it was a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 GEM is faster and weaker with the system in the west and carvers is right, less separation as a result. It's a lot like the 0z Euro at 500mb, but is it right? Even if right I would anticipate more precip at the surface than what is being shown across the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Super weak low in the GL region on the CMC...It interacted with the first system. Still, looks like separation was the issue between the engine and the caboose. I think what Mr Bob said earlier in the medium range discussion thread is important. We do not want the boundary for this near us as almost all storms have trended north due to the cold air not penetrating southward as far as modeled. Still plenty of time for changes...good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Tough to tell much...but here is the 12z UKMET which sometimes gives a hint to the Euro. Looks suppressed but 500 maps by themselves are not my specialty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 12z UKMET looks remarkably similar to the GEM at 114 below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 We are all going to crown a new king here (at least momentarily, lol) or never believe the GFS again. It's sudden consistency at 500 and the surface the couple of runs is remarkable. Of course the less amped solution model runs are also being pretty consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 So, two camps...the quicker solutions on the CMC/UKMET that don't allow room for the caboose to develop. The GFS solution is on its own right now with the slower solution and more robust caboose. What is the trend on the GFS, north or south...slower or faster at 12z compared to 0z and 6z? Bout to the point where trends matter as much as ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, John1122 said: Remember earlier in winter when the models would depict 1040+ highs in the upper midwest, one even in Illinois, yet rain here with lows to our south and I said it shouldn't be showing that? This is what the models should show with that upper atmosphere set up. Granted, at the time of verification the HP was in Idaho so it was a cutter. A lot of H's on that image. It really doesn't get any better than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 18 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: We are all going to crown a new king here (at least momentarily, lol) or never believe the GFS again. It's sudden consistency at 500 and the surface the couple of runs is remarkable. Of course the less amped solution model runs are also being pretty consistent. I tend to think a juicier system makes more sense provided there is room to develop. What are the odds that it all just ejects from the West in one piece(if the energy is all Pacific) or phases if they are two separate pieces? There is not much separation on the CMC. I have seen these caboose deals morph into one storm even at this late time frame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 The GFS/UK are not terribly far off but make a big difference in surface details here. The highs to our N/W are a little more N/W and slightly stronger on the GFS. This allows the system to be a little bit further NW on the GFS and slightly stronger. This is literally about a 200 mile window and a 1012 low on the GFS vs a 1014 on the UKIE. This image from the SE thread show how close they are on the set up right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Lots of heavy hitters on the 12z GEFS, small timing differences leads to several whiffs as well. Also has a BIG and wide snowfall mean. Lots of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 13 minutes ago, John1122 said: The GFS/UK are not terribly far off but make a big difference in surface details here. The highs to our N/W are a little more N/W and slightly stronger on the GFS. This allows the system to be a little bit further NW on the GFS and slightly stronger. This is literally about a 200 mile window and a 1012 low on the GFS vs a 1014 on the UKIE. This image from the SE thread show how close they are on the set up right now. That slp off the West coast....on the UKMET, it may be pumping that ridge a bit and forcing our energy to dig more into the GOM. The really good GFS solutions have the West coast energy coming in further south near the California and Oregon. Keeps things slightly flatter. Might be something to watch on the short range models...just where that energy comes into NA. Also, I suspect we see a major jump in modeling once that energy comes ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Some monsters in there. Some misses as expected. The good thing is looking at the low centers, only 2 were depicted as north of us on the entire suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, John1122 said: Some monsters in there. Some misses as expected. The good thing is looking at the low centers, only 2 were depicted as north of us on the entire suite. I agree. I have been more worried about something missing south and east for a couple of days.....moreso than something missing north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, tnweathernut said: I agree. I have been more worried about something missing south and east for a couple of days.....moreso than something missing north. While that happens, it's much more rare to see the suppressed track verify vs the NW trend. Most of our big events end up being borderline due to that trend, we've all seen them in go from Brownsville to Cuba every run until 2 days out and then they're suddenly rolling across the Central Gulf Coast states and warm nosing is an issue. So I worry much more about the potential NW solution like last nights track that ran I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, John1122 said: While that happens, it's much more rare to see the suppressed track verify vs the NW trend. Most of our big events end up being borderline due to that trend, we've all seen them in go from Brownsville to Cuba every run until 2 days out and then they're suddenly rolling across the Central Gulf Coast states and warm nosing is an issue. So I worry much more about the potential NW solution like last nights track that ran I-40. I concur! In fact I'd much rather see southern track modeling to allow for the common N and NW jogs we see year after year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Some -10 to -20 degree weather pops up over East Tennessee after the snow event. Probably too cold, as the GFS has been crazy cold over snow pack all winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 looking at the nam vrs the gfs at max time the maps almost look the same at 1-6 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, John1122 said: While that happens, it's much more rare to see the suppressed track verify vs the NW trend. Most of our big events end up being borderline due to that trend, we've all seen them in go from Brownsville to Cuba every run until 2 days out and then they're suddenly rolling across the Central Gulf Coast states and warm nosing is an issue. So I worry much more about the potential NW solution like last nights track that ran I-40. Oh, I don't disagree, but I am pretty perplexed. The GFS is usually the weaker/progressive one and the Euro/UK usually stronger and more wound up. It's like we are in bizarro world with this potential system. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 20 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Oh, I don't disagree, but I am pretty perplexed. The GFS is usually the weaker/progressive one and the Euro/UK usually stronger and more wound up. It's like we are in bizarro world with this potential system. lol That's true, it's rare to see the Euro kicking things out so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Euro more of the same, suppressed like 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Reb said: Euro more of the same, suppressed like 0z. does it happen often that the gfs see's things that the euro and Canadian models don't ? or maybey its to far for the euro and the Canadian to get a grip on it. I looked at the past few euro and it has the high following the piece of energy then suppressing it south to mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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