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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley First Half 2017


xram

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12 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

 Thanks id appreciate it  

 

 

So my brother said if it was a damp spot it may have been snow that got blown in through the vent but with modern vents that really shouldn't happen. He said that if it was out right dripping water he was thinking it wasn't snow blown in but some other roof problem. 

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5 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm tracking how quickly or not the mid to late March climate will melt the current snow pack. I picked a flat spot that has no sun until the afternoon.
I ended the evening on Tuesday the 14th with a snow pack of 21 inches.
By Wednesday morning even with frigid overnight temps near 10 the compression had brought it down to 19.5 inches.
With the high of 22 on Wednesday, little sun and snow showers throughout the day the snow pack Thursday morning was 18.8, probably mostly compression more than anything.
After a high of 35 yesterday the snow pack this morning (Friday) was 17.5 inches.
It's standing up pretty well considering the time of year and sun angle. I'm hoping to enter April with the lawn at least still covered. That's my kind of March.
I'll be tracking this every day so people that like to watch paint dry can also follow this. I find it interesting at least, which says a lot about me.

At 1pm today I had 18.5" at the stake. The march sun is def doing its dirty work. 

Expecting a general 2-4" for the area. I guess there is that possibility of something higher in isolated areas but as we all know these IVTs can set up shop anywhere and just dump. 

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going to have to wait to hear Mt Holy NWS informs later tonight.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Concern for a band of heavy wet snow developing from Sussex through Morris county NJ late Saturday afternoon. WSW update possible at 930 PM Friday. GFS and NAM RGEM are quite wet and I think more correct than the drier EC/GGEM. The reasoning is instability with a healthy easterly inflow developing Saturday evening into the oncoming closing off upper low. The heaviest snowfall would be elevation based. Closed lows aloft are bad news, especially northern half. No major changes attm.

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16 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I've said it in a few threads already and I'll say it again. The ground is not frozen under this snow so it's melting from both sides. It will be gone in very little time compared to if it was on frozen ground.

Totally agree. One of the best packs was in 2015 that built itself on top of frozen ground after that freezing rain event, the base of the pack was literally ice.  Not at all the case this year. 

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57 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I've said it in a few threads already and I'll say it again. The ground is not frozen under this snow so it's melting from both sides. It will be gone in very little time compared to if it was on frozen ground.

Yep. Plus, my pack is carpeted with pine needles from the wind which darkens it and heats it up even quicker. :(

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2 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Yep. Plus, my pack is carpeted with pine needles from the wind which darkens it and heats it up even quicker. :(

That's a location specific issue, very few areas have that problem.   In fact, for the most part this is a pretty clean pack from what I see in my travels around the region.

 

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Quote

New Jersey

... Morris County... 
   Kinnelon               0.8   702 PM  3/18  public                  
   Succasunna             0.7   800 PM  3/18  social media            

... Sussex County... 
   Hopatcong              1.1   758 PM  3/18  social media            
   Highland Lakes         0.9   708 PM  3/18  trained spotter         
   Wantage                0.5   705 PM  3/18  trained spotter

I wish more spotters would indicate elevation with their reports.  I got 1.0" exactly, and would be interested in seeing how others at varying elevations did in terms of accumulations.

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1 minute ago, JerseyWx said:

I wish more spotters would indicate elevation with their reports.  I got 1.0" exactly, and would be interested in seeing how others at varying elevations did in terms of accumulations.

I dont think its the spotters, its the report itself. Ive always included elevation during elevation dependent events and such, and ive never seen it listed.

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6 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

I dont think its the spotters, its the report itself. Ive always included elevation during elevation dependent events and such, and ive never seen it listed.

Oh alright, I assumed when the elevation was listed that meant they put it in.

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After a high of 56 Tuesday (21st) with sun most of the day and a Wednesday morning low of 29, the snow pack Wednesday (22nd) morning is 7.5 inches.

Yesterday 3.5 inches in snow depth was lost, the biggest loss in a day since I began following. A 56 degree day in late March with full sun, will do that. If this was not a mature snow pack most likely more would have been lost yesterday.

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On 3/22/2017 at 7:01 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

After a high of 56 Tuesday (21st) with sun most of the day and a Wednesday morning low of 29, the snow pack Wednesday (22nd) morning is 7.5 inches.

Yesterday 3.5 inches in snow depth was lost, the biggest loss in a day since I began following. A 56 degree day in late March with full sun, will do that. If this was not a mature snow pack most likely more would have been lost yesterday.

Here is what I got in the yard. Mid winter on the ridge line.

Weekly High temps

Monday - 48.7

Tuesday - 56.2

Wednesday - 39.5

Thursday - 38.5

Friday - 44.7

 

IMG_0913.JPG

march 24th snow measure 2.jpg

march 24th snow measure 3.jpg

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UPDATED - March 25, 2017

I'm tracking how quickly or not the mid to late March climate will melt the current snow pack. I picked a flat spot that has no sun until the afternoon.

I ended the evening on Tuesday the 14th with a high of 26 that day with a snow pack of 21 inches.

By Wednesday (15th) morning, with an overnight low of 17, the compression had brought it down to 19.5 inches.

With the high of 24 on Wednesday, little sun and snow showers throughout the day and a Thursday morning low of 20, the snow pack Thursday (16th) morning, probably due more to compression than anything is 18.8 inches.

After a high of 35 Thursday and a Friday morning low of 11, the snow pack Friday (17th) morning is 17.5 inches.

After a high of 45 Friday and a Saturday morning low of 10, the snow pack Saturday (18th) morning is 15.2 inches.

After a high of 35 Saturday with clouds and snow showers most of the day and a Sunday morning low of 23, Sunday (19th) morning is 15.1 inches.

After a high of 44 Sunday (19th) with sun most of the day and a Monday morning low of 16, the snow pack Monday (20th) morning is 12.6 inches.

After a high of 49 Monday (20th) with sun most of the day and a Tuesday morning low of 32, the snow pack Tuesday (21st) morning is 11.0 inches.

After a high of 56 Tuesday (21st) with sun most of the day and a Wednesday morning low of 29, the snow pack Wednesday (22nd) morning is 7.5 inches.

After an afternoon high of 29 Wednesday (22nd) with sun and high winds most of the day and an impressive Thursday morning low of 10, the snow pack Thursday (23rd) morning is 6.8 inches.

After an afternoon high of 41 Thursday (23rd) with sun most of the day and a Friday morning low of 21, the snow pack Friday (24th) morning is 6.0 inches.

After an afternoon high of 47 Friday (24th) with clouds most of the day and a little rain and a Saturday morning low of 33, the snow pack Saturday (25th) morning is down to 4.7 inches.

Yesterday 1.3 inches in snow depth was lost. It is interesting to note that the inches lost each day seems to decrease the lower the depth becomes as the compression and LE of the remaining snow increases proportionately to the remaining snow depth. Areas on hills sloping towards the sun all day and under trees have bare spots. I would probably target Tuesday the 28th when the landscape will be more than 50% snow less. 82 days of snow cover this winter and counting, to be continued tomorrow.

Below is the snow cover of 1 inch or more so far this season. Despite a top ten warmest December through February it stands at 82 days and counting this season.

..............Eastern Orange County Winter 2016/17
................Days with snowpack and total snow
.........................................Consecutive......Snowfall
Begin date........End Date.....Days 1" cover....during period
20-Nov-16.......26-Nov-16.........6...................4.0
05-Dec-16.......26-Dec-16........21..................9.6
29-Dec-16.......31-Dec-16..........2..................1.7
06-Jan-17........12-Jan-17..........6..................2.7
14-Jan-17........16-Jan-17..........2..................1.0
23-Jan-17........22-Feb-17.........30................26.0
10-Mar-17........25-Mar-17.........15................25.7

...............................Totals......82................70.7

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UPDATED - March 28, 2017

Below I tracked the daily progress of how quickly the 21 inch snow pack that stood at the end of the evening of Tuesday March 14th would stand up to the mid to late March sun. I picked a flat spot that has no sun until the afternoon. With no additional measurable snow after the 14th it took 15 days to reduce the 21 inch snow cover to less than an inch over less than 50% of the landscape.

It was a flawed study in many respects but I did find it more interesting than watching paint dry but not by a wide margin. I noted several things during the period as noted below.

The day of the greatest loss in depth was Tuesday the 21st when the high hit 56 and the next days morning low was 29. 3.5 inches of snow was lost during that 24 hour period. It was the warmest day during the period so perfectly understandable.

From 10 pm Tuesday night the 14th, to 8 am Wednesday morning the 15th with temperatures in the teens and snow showers throughout the night the snow compressed and settled overnight from 21.0 to 19.5 inches. It may have been even a little more as the snow showers most likely added a few tenths of an inch overnight but like the conservancy I did not add that to my snow totals.

The least amount of snow depth lost on a day when there was no additional snow was on Wednesday the 22nd when the high hit only 29 but with sun and high winds most of the day and the next morning low of 10 only 0.7 inches of depth was lost that day, from 7.5 to 6.8 inches.

Also of note the day after the storm on the 15th, when the high only reached 24 and there was virtually no sun during the day and scattered snow showers throughout the day with the next days morning low of 20 the snow depth decreased from 19.5 to 18.8 inches a similar 0.7 inch loss as was seen on the 22nd. Since snow showers may have also added several tenths of an inch during the day most likely the loss that day was due more to additional compression and settling than melting.

On Saturday the 18th with clouds and snow showers most of the day and a high of 35 and a Sunday morning low of 23 the depth only went down 0.1 inches from 15.2 to 15.1. I was gone during most of the day and evening so I can only assume the snow showers during the afternoon added several tenths of an inch to the snowpack even though nothing stuck on paved surfaces.

The day by day progress

I ended the evening on Tuesday the 14th with a high of 26 that day with a snow pack of 21 inches.

By Wednesday (15th) morning, with an overnight low of 17, the compression had brought it down to 19.5 inches.

With the high of 24 on Wednesday (15th), little sun and snow showers throughout the day and a Thursday morning low of 20, the snow pack Thursday (16th) morning, probably due more to compression than anything is 18.8 inches.

After a high of 35 Thursday (16th) and a Friday morning low of 11, the snow pack Friday (17th) morning is 17.5 inches.

After a high of 45 Friday (17th) and a Saturday morning low of 10, the snow pack Saturday (18th) morning is 15.2 inches.

After a high of 35 Saturday (18th) with clouds and snow showers most of the day and a Sunday morning low of 23, Sunday (19th) morning is 15.1 inches.

After a high of 44 Sunday (19th) with sun most of the day and a Monday morning low of 16, the snow pack Monday (20th) morning is 12.6 inches.

After a high of 49 Monday (20th) with sun most of the day and a Tuesday morning low of 32, the snow pack Tuesday (21st) morning is 11.0 inches.

After a high of 56 Tuesday (21st) with sun most of the day and a Wednesday morning low of 29, the snow pack Wednesday (22nd) morning is 7.5 inches.

After an afternoon high of 29 Wednesday (22nd) with sun and high winds most of the day and an impressive Thursday morning low of 10, the snow pack Thursday (23rd) morning is 6.8 inches.

After an afternoon high of 41 Thursday (23rd) with sun most of the day and a Friday morning low of 21, the snow pack Friday (24th) morning is 6.0 inches.

After an afternoon high of 47 Friday (24th) with clouds most of the day and a little rain and a Saturday morning low of 33, the snow pack Saturday (25th) morning is down to 4.7 inches.

After an afternoon high of 42 Saturday (25th) with clouds and some drizzle and light rain most of the day and a Sunday morning low of 31, the snow pack Sunday (26th) morning is down to 3.3 inches.

After an afternoon high of only 36 Sunday (26th) with clouds and and light rain most of the day and a Monday morning low of 33, the snow pack Monday (27th) morning is down to 2.5 inches.

After an afternoon high of 46 Monday (27th) with clouds and and light rain at times through the day and a Tuesday morning low of 36, the snow pack Tuesday (28th) morning is down to 1.2 inches and will end the 18 consecutive days of snow pack for the month after today and 85 days for the season.

Yesterday 1.3 inches in snow depth was lost, with the depth now at 1.2 inches in the flat areas that receive 1/2 sun and 1/2 shade and about 50% total coverage the winter barring any April snows will end with 85 days of snow cover, and 18 consecutive days this March.

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Friday night still looks very interesting for northern and/or elevated areas. Looking at the soundings, that would be rain -> snow -> sleet -> rain imby, but another tick or two colder and an epic paste job would be within reach. I've been idly watching this threat for something like a week now, and I am pleasantly surprised that a wintry event is still in the cards.

LvSvEz1.png

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