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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley First Half 2017


xram

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2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I really don't think that dry slot makes it up here with filling 

 

Just now, White Gorilla said:

What I am thinking too.  

Yeah it kind of looks like I might see that slot but I'm thinking it stops at Mt Beacon/Stormville Mt area so you guys may just lose some intensity but keep accumulating.  I went to a sleet/pellet mix a few minutes ago but there's still a lot of snow too and it's all pouring down and piling up.

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2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

FWIW, it looks like the 12z GFS has less than .1" LE in NJ after 17z.  And only a few .1-.4 in the HV.  I hope it's wrong.

I think some of us are probably within sight of our final totals. A general 15-20" in the valley as we all expected before the models started going ape with 3" QPF and 10"/hr snowfall rates.

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The storm's not over by any means so any summation is premature, but it's pretty clear the best mid-level forcing ended up well NW.  I suspect final total QPF will be in the 1.5 - 2" range with roughly 10:1 ratios.  Great storm but ultimately probably slightly less snow than short term guidance indicated.

I expect some 25-30" totals in NEPA, SNY, and possibly up towards the Capital District.  They will probably end up with similar QPF but better ratios.

 

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1 minute ago, eduggs said:

It looks like the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area slightly overperformed and the BGM are significantly overperformed model consensus.  NNJ, SENY, and NW CT slightly underperformed.  The final CCB band could have a potent stinger, however.  Fingers crossed.

I know, had 4 inches from 930 to 1030 but that was really the only epic hour of this storm. Had a 50 gust too. Thought it would last longer. Have 12 on ground and  I'm dry slotted, very light sleet falling, hoping Rgem and HRR verify which still focus a heavy band over the river in a bit. 

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