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StoneColdWeatherAustin

Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

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5 hours ago, burgertime said:

 

Any worry for you over getting convection robbed by the gulf coast? Hi-res NAM looks like it's firing a lot of thunderstorms. I know it's always like a 50/50 shot with that so probably pointless to even speculate but just curious. I think either way it's look pretty ****ing awesome with all the models now converging into a 3-6 event for most. Good stuff overnight! 

Always a concern. Hopefully the positive tilt orientation to this thing will fight that impact off.

I will also say that I am issuing a 'radar hallucination freak-out watch' for this system. With the orientation of this thing and the way precip should blossom this evening, there will be screams of this missing people to the south by late today.

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Snow/Sleet Totals Effective 12pm Friday to 12am Sunday (Final Call)

Atlanta,GA = 2-4
Athens,GA = 1-3
Asheville,NC = 2-4
Greenville,SC = 2-4
Hickory,NC = 4-6
Charlotte,NC = 4-8
Davidson,NC = 4-8
Columbia,SC = Trace-1
Greensboro,NC = 6-10
Raleigh,NC = 6-10
Greenville NC = 4-6
Roanoke Rapids,NC = 8-12 
Richmond,VA = 4-8 
DC = 1-3

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Here in Florence, SC it appears we're going to get close to 1" of rain before the cold air gets here smh


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3 hours ago, ncskywarn said:

tmp_17129-prec(2)-2083886373.png

Still mixing but a big change an improvement between 00Z and 06Z NAM runs

tmp_17129-prec-705327077.png

Where can I access this information for different models and locations? I've seen these graphs posted many times in this forum before.

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Always a concern. Hopefully the positive tilt orientation to this thing will fight that impact off.

I will also say that I am issuing a 'radar hallucination freak-out watch' for this system. With the orientation of this thing and the way precip should blossom this evening, there will be screams of this missing people to the south by late today.


Lol. Thanks for statement. Will we reference it :)


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31 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

It looks like it's the ARW part of the SREF that is crazy. 

For Hickory, I removed the top four amounts on the SREF plumes (all greater than 12"), and the mean was still just shy of 8".  The minimum value is just over 2".

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42 minutes ago, SeVa said:

Looks like we might be making a run at a top 5 event. Would just have to break 12 for that to happen.

AKQ is even making mention of blizzard conditions on Saturday

Just wanted to update with new graphic.

I think we get at least 10 area wide!!

SnowTotal.png

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Well unless the 12Z suite comes in really colder, 1-4" (which has been my official call all along on FB) is good for ATL. More way up in far northern burbs. Too bad the GFS got my hopes up occasionally but this is actually (with a couple of notable exceptions) that way it usually plays out here. The key is the dynamic cooling at changeover and rates for just a few hours- could come down pretty heavy just before ending. Congrats the mountains and CLT-RDU-ORF. I may just head up to about Ball Ground a little later today to get in the butter zone.

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I expect to see some mixing down east in North Carolina. I am a long way east (western edge of the coastal plain) but I wonder if the mixing will make it this far north. Will be interesting to watch and I'll report, if I can.

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25 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Snow/Sleet Totals Effective 12pm Friday to 12am Sunday (Final Call)

Atlanta,GA = 2-4
Athens,GA = 1-3
Asheville,NC = 2-4
Greenville,SC = 2-4
Hickory,NC = 4-6
Charlotte,NC = 4-8
Davidson,NC = 4-8
Columbia,SC = Trace-1
Greensboro,NC = 6-10
Raleigh,NC = 6-10
Greenville NC = 4-6
Roanoke Rapids,NC = 8-12 
Richmond,VA = 4-8 
DC = 1-3

Good calls. I agree.

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6 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Well unless the 12Z suite comes in really colder, 1-4" (which has been my official call all along on FB) is good for ATL. More way up in far northern burbs. Too bad the GFS got my hopes up occasionally but this is actually (with a couple of notable exceptions) that way it usually plays out here. The key is the dynamic cooling at changeover and rates for just a few hours- could come down pretty heavt just before ending. Congrats the mountains and CLT-RDU-ORF. I may just head up to about Ball Ground a little later today to get in the butter zone.

Trying due north up 400 in Dahlonega.  Get a little elevation under your belt and hang out on the square eating Pizza.  LOL.

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29 minutes ago, msuwx said:

Always a concern. Hopefully the positive tilt orientation to this thing will fight that impact off.

I will also say that I am issuing a 'radar hallucination freak-out watch' for this system. With the orientation of this thing and the way precip should blossom this evening, there will be screams of this missing people to the south by late today.

1

:lmao: Would love to see the AFD for that one! I'll be watching the meltdown for the first time and not have to worry about meltingdown myself. 

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5 minutes ago, RaleighWx said:

Hey Guys my final call for those interested.

 

Thanks Allan! Your maps are the ones I share most with people in these events - enjoy the weather.

Great/exciting thread all around getting to track something like this that doesn't happen all too often in the southeast - shout out to everyone for posting helpful/interesting comments and mods who keep things running smoothly!

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Just now, magpiemaniac said:

Perhaps the mets at WRAL should looks at model estimates for areas outside the Triangle. They're prognosticating from their echo chamber. They need to shift that map to the northwest and increase their totals slightly.

I'm still not sold on the whole NW shift thing yet.  I still think Raleigh sees a lot more snow than WS

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24 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

I expect to see some mixing down east in North Carolina. I am a long way east (western edge of the coastal plain) but I wonder if the mixing will make it this far north. Will be interesting to watch and I'll report, if I can.

Even if there is some mixing, and I think there could be, you will still get a big storm. I'd rather be on the snow/mixing borderline where you know QPFs won't be a problem than on the northern fringe where temps are fine but moisture could be severely limited.

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Sucky JB as some have said, Says It's goona crank Raleigh on NE from there foot in lot of places. He likes the NAM packages. He's said for days that models would correct west and it appears they are doing that!! No? I'm not saying He's going to be right, but models seem to be falling in line with his thinking right now, that could change as we all very well know................

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