griteater Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Decent run of 00z Euro Ensemble Mean for the second wave scenario on Saturday. It was an improvement from its previous run. There are a few different camps with tonight's runs: GFS/GFS Ens Mean/UKMet: dig northern stream hard southeast and key on 1st wave on Thurs with light snow potential, then go cold with no Pac wave kicking out Euro: digs northern stream southwest and picks up Pac wave resulting in rain on Friday Euro Ens Mean/CMC/CMC Ensemble Mean: dig northern stream southeast, but not as much as GFS/UKMet, so no wintry precip with 1st wave on Thurs, then relatively cold high moves in over the Midwest, then Pac wave kicks out for a light snow on Saturday with sfc low off SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Roughly 18 of the 51 Euro Ens members have at least 2 inches of snow in portions of our forum outside of the mtns through the end of next weekend ...an increase from the previous run. 8 of the members have areas with 6 inches or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Well the 6z GFS looks to be a major ice storm for the NC piedmont up into S. Virginia. All this come on Sunday. Other CAD areas in Ga and SC would also start as ice before switching to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Models all over the place. The 6z GFS loses the first wave for a stronger Sunday wave that drops a major ice storm from RDU north and west. Just looking at the NAVGEM coming in and it still has the first wave on Friday with what looks like snow from NE Ga through upstate SC and a good portion of NC (but light). The CMC looks to be a storm on Saturday which would be an inch or two for RDU but higher amounts south and eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 So as RAH has inferred we need more time, and more model runs to iron this all out: The forecast for the end of the week remains highly uncertain, as there remains large model spread in the geometry of a broad trough forecast to encompass much of the contiguous U.S. late in the week. The most notable differences in the models begin with the amplification of Nrn stream energy into MT on Wed. There has been a signal in recent days for at least some of this energy to progressEwd across the lower OH/TN Valleys, with an associated chance of light rain/snow across central NC late Thu-Thu night. Thereafter, arctic high pressure is forecast to expand Ewd into the Middle Atlantic region, but how fully it does so, and what/if any degree of upstream shortwave energy and moisture stream Ewd, remains highly uncertain. This forecast will continue previous trends toward drier and colder conditions for Fri-Sat, but with admittedly low forecast confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 6z GEFS mean went back up, after dropping at 0z. It's now similar to yesterdays 12z and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Here's what we don't want from the 6z gfs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 12 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Here's what we don't want from the 6z gfs: Well, That would be a possible out-come. I am just glad we are not 24 hours out looking at a scenario like that. Don't worry it will all change many times before we get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 hour ago, packfan98 said: Here's what we don't want from the 6z gfs: 1 1 Yup. That is .88" of Freezing rain for my location in the foothills. Would not be good. As others have stated, the air is going to be cold. Bufkit is giving KGSP a 36:1 for a time stamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 15 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Yup. That is .88" of Freezing rain for my location in the foothills. Would not be good. Yeah I'm just east of accumulating ice. Yall can have that garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 4 hours ago, griteater said: Decent run of 00z Euro Ensemble Mean for the second wave scenario on Saturday. It was an improvement from its previous run. There are a few different camps with tonight's runs: GFS/GFS Ens Mean/UKMet: dig northern stream hard southeast and key on 1st wave on Thurs with light snow potential, then go cold with no Pac wave kicking out Euro: digs northern stream southwest and picks up Pac wave resulting in rain on Friday Euro Ens Mean/CMC/CMC Ensemble Mean: dig northern stream southeast, but not as much as GFS/UKMet, so no wintry precip with 1st wave on Thurs, then relatively cold high moves in over the Midwest, then Pac wave kicks out for a light snow on Saturday with sfc low off SE coast. Good model ageement I see...:-) Even as early as day 4 the ensembles diverge with EPS most strung out trough and GEFS deeper trough in east. UK agrees with GEFS and GEPS is in maybe in the middle. Not sure which ultimately gives the best chance so let the chips fall where they may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 12z Para finally ran from yesterday. Shows two chances, both just miss the SE...first on Friday morning and second on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 GGEM ENS mean (GEPS) shows the 2nd low just off the coast on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiftMania Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Anyone know the verification scores for the JMA? I have been watching it on tropical tidbits for some time now and it seems to be onto something. At least consistency wise. Can't get the pics to upload but I'm referring to hr 120 to 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KENW0728 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Watching for freezing precipitation in Cobb County is such a departure from watching it in SE Wisconsin. Our nail biter with storms was whether or not a Lake Effect plume would set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Models everywhere WRT the second wave. GFS kicks it back out into the ULL out in the N Pac (too much separation) while the Euro brings it down the backside of the US trough but shears it out. The 6z GFS did trend back some toward bringing back to the coast, but not enough as it pops the W ridge in front of it too quickly. Then moves it through the polar jet which will take most of the south out of it. It needs to be an STJ system. Once the W ridge pops it has to be in front of it to let it dig south while not shearing out. We're not going to get a good handle on this particular wave for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiftMania Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, Wow said: Models everywhere WRT the second wave. GFS kicks it back out into the ULL out in the N Pac (too much separation) while the Euro brings it down the backside of the US trough but shears it out. The 6z GFS did trend back some toward bringing back to the coast, but not enough as it pops the W ridge in front of it too quickly. Once the W ridge pops it has to be in front of it to let it dig south while not shearing out. We're not going to get a good handle on this particular wave for a while. Great analysis, fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 43 minutes ago, RiftMania said: Anyone know the verification scores for the JMA? I have been watching it on tropical tidbits for some time now and it seems to be onto something. At least consistency wise. Can't get the pics to upload but I'm referring to hr 120 to 168. Don't know the specific score but not very good. But fwiw, meteocentre has it out to hours 240 hours at 12z.....and 84 hours on at 0z, 06z, and 18z in more useful plots. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=jma&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest 40 minutes ago, KENW0728 said: Watching for freezing precipitation in Cobb County is such a departure from watching it in SE Wisconsin. Our nail biter with storms was whether or not a Lake Effect plume would set up. ouch... I can't imagine moving from some place like that to here if you are a snow lover. The one positive is it makes you appreciate it a lot more when it happens and most of the time if there is a chance it's extremely difficult trying to pin down specifics, especially if there is a wedge, which makes for a challenging forecast. 21 minutes ago, Wow said: Models everywhere WRT the second wave. GFS kicks it back out into the ULL out in the N Pac (too much separation) while the Euro brings it down the backside of the US trough but shears it out. The 6z GFS did trend back some toward bringing back to the coast, but not enough as it pops the W ridge in front of it too quickly. Then moves it through the polar jet which will take most of the south out of it. It needs to be an STJ system. Once the W ridge pops it has to be in front of it to let it dig south while not shearing out. We're not going to get a good handle on this particular wave for a while. Yep..At this point, and i'm pretty much stating the obvious here, but it's pretty pointless to get too worked up or too down on each run until there is some across the board consistency for a few runs. Folks might as well save their emotions until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 I grew up in the Mtns. of NC thru the sixties and seventies, and we had snow seems like all the time around Asheville, anymore its tough to get a light snow let alone a nice snowstorm, weather has certainly changed for the worse if you like some good snows during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 What I want to see is the Pac ULL to trend back west again to put the ridge further west. That'll ensure the wave digs south ahead of it but without getting sheared out by the PV. Yesterday's GFS 0z had nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 17 minutes ago, Wow said: Models everywhere WRT the second wave. GFS kicks it back out into the ULL out in the N Pac (too much separation) while the Euro brings it down the backside of the US trough but shears it out. The 6z GFS did trend back some toward bringing back to the coast, but not enough as it pops the W ridge in front of it too quickly. Then moves it through the polar jet which will take most of the south out of it. It needs to be an STJ system. Once the W ridge pops it has to be in front of it to let it dig south while not shearing out. We're not going to get a good handle on this particular wave for a while. Yep, this is a very typical lead up to a potential SE winter storm. We may need to get to Wednesday or so to get a decent idea. Even then how many times have we had to get to looking at radar returns to really know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Yep, this is a very typical lead up to a potential SE winter storm. We may need to get to Wednesday or so to get a decent idea. Even then how many times have we had to get to looking at radar returns to really know. Wednesday would be a good cut off imo. Thanks for the disco guys. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 14 minutes ago, Wow said: What I want to see is the Pac ULL to trend back west again to put the ridge further west. That'll ensure the wave digs south ahead of it but without getting sheared out by the PV. Yesterday's GFS 0z had nailed it. Yes the main thing I did not like about recent model runs is how instead of a large broad based trough they moved to a more narrow one similar to mid December, when we had a good cold shot but not enough of a broad trough to allow amplification for a good storm to slide underneath. Weather patterns tend to repeat, but hope this time it turns out different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 20 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Yep, this is a very typical lead up to a potential SE winter storm. We may need to get to Wednesday or so to get a decent idea. Even then how many times have we had to get to looking at radar returns to really know. Exactly...seen this movie before many times. Just think few times we have seen the models go back and forth at this range, how few times a storm works out so far in advance, and how many times have we had winter weather where it wasn't until a few days before hand did the models actually start showing any form of precipitation at all. Fact is, when we actually do get a winter storm/frozen precip...its kind of rare for it to show up in the models many days in advance. I mean sure, you might get a run here or there that shows something but just like this 'threat', it's there one run, gone the next, and with no consistent agreement either between models. When we do get one, It only is when you get within day 3 or 4 that the models often pick up on them...sometimes even less...and even then what actually happens vs what is being progged is often very different at that range. And that is just dealing with having precipitation at all...not what form and temps. One has to have patience around here that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jonesing for a chase said: Yes the main thing I did not like about recent model runs is how instead of a large broad based trough they moved to a more narrow one similar to mid December, when we had a good cold shot but not enough of a broad trough to allow amplification for a good storm to slide underneath. Weather patterns tend to repeat, but hope this time it turns out different. The 12z NAM looks to create more of a broad trough. But I know better (...NAM at hour 84). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, FallsLake said: The 12z NAM looks to create more of a broad trough. But I know better (...NAM at hour 84). The NAM the last 2 years or so has been much better in the 60-84 hour range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 0z Para follows the GFS/UK with popping a ridge day 4 and thus keying everything on that trough digging/sharpening enough to pop a low. Light snows. Personally I would prefer this track, cold would be around and would be a light event, anything big we always get burned on. But, if it goes this route I would like the ridge to pop more. These changes all happen day 4 so 12z runs will be 84 hours, I would think we would have an idea of a flatter pac with 2nd wave maybe hitting or everything in the 1st wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: 0z Para follows the GFS/UK with popping a ridge day 4 and thus keying everything on that trough digging/sharpening enough to pop a low. Light snows. Personally I would prefer this track, cold would be around and would be a light event, anything big we always get burned on. But, if it goes this route I would like the ridge to pop more. Also shows a good bit of ice in the immediate CAD region closest to the blue ridge. Something to keep an eye on considering how cold temps will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avalanche Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 20 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Also shows a good bit of ice in the immediate CAD region closest to the blue ridge. Something to keep an eye on considering how cold temps will be. Yes, from Boone to southern Virginia look out for ip/fzrn if you're in the valley areas east side of the apps. There's been mention of this for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, avalanche said: Yes, from Boone to southern Virginia look out for ip/fzrn if you're in the valley areas east side of the apps. There's been mention of this for a while now. Yep. However you need to be off the mountain if you want the CAD. Higher elevations will be warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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