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StoneColdWeatherAustin

Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

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21 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Matt East in his video mentioned he thought the 850 line would set up somewhere SW of CLT and NW of the city should stay 90% snow.  Sitting at Mt Island lake, about as far NW Mecklenburg County you can be, I hope that tune stays.  The NW trend can stop now!

I'm feeling good at you and I staying mostly snow once things settle in.  Have to keep our eyes on Phil's coefficient radar loop though. Grit should feel prettt good too, Wow and QC are sitting best when it comes to keeping mixing at bay.

 

Edit:. And then there is the latest HRRR.  Gonna be close here.

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3 minutes ago, phil882 said:

Good question! The answer depends on where the strongest baroclinicity (i.e., temperature gradient) is. Right now the system is weak because the baroclinicity is starting out diffuse and the front at 850hPa is detached from where the front is at the surface (which is why there are p-type issues in the first place). As the storm intensifies, these baroclinic zones will get closer together due to frontogenesis (which just means tightening of the temperature gradient). This pulls the sfc cyclone closer to the 850hPa low, and the 850hPa low pulls closer to the sfc cyclone.

In this case, the sfc vortex is still stronger than the 850-hPa low which is barely closed, so the 850-hPa vortex is probably more likely to migrate towards the sfc cyclone than vice versa over time (and why the warm nose should probably crash towards the NC/VA coastline at the end of the event).

Great stuff as always.  Thank you.  Really helps illustrate how all of these processes relate to each other.  Hopefully, we can crash the warm nose east a little sooner than forecast with this one, though that's not seeming like a high probability at present.

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4 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

I'm feeling good at you and I staying mostly snow once things settle in.  Have to keep our eyes on Phil's coefficient radar loop though. Grit should feel prettt good too, Wow and QC are sitting best when it comes to keeping mixing at bay.

Yeah, I hope so, everything I've seen so far other than the HRRR keeps the 850s SE of CLT proper the whole time starting at midnight or so.  To me this is a quick hitter so if we get into sleet, I think the lower 3 inch calls will be a good bet

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What is the best radar to use that shows CC mode?  I've lost the link for it.  I'd like to be able to watch my 3000 ft snowstorm on the computer tonight.  Thanks!

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So how accurate is the HRRR for say 10-20 miles on the snow/IP gradient?  I am literally that close in Cary when it comes to the latest HRRR.  Is the high res usually pinpoint tight at this range or could it be off?---even way off one way or the other??

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Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi  2h2 hours ago

If nothing else, the GFS is stubborn on attempt at all time record lows in central NC

C1gMwbtXUAE_BU4.jpg:large

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2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Latest HRRR at hour 18. looks like the Triangle is being hit hard:

 

pounded2.jpg

Holy cow. 

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3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Great stuff as always.  Thank you.  Really helps illustrate how all of these processes relate to each other.  Hopefully, we can crash the warm nose east a little sooner than forecast with this one, though that's not seeming like a high probability at present.

Yeah nice write up from Phil....and for my laymen's comments on it, the upper wave at 500mb kind of dictates everything.  In the Jan 2002 storm for example that hit ATL to RDU (a different setup with a very strong diving upper wave/low), the 500mb vort max tracked through S GA into S SC and the 850mb low popped in NE SC.  That's ideal for you and I.  Ideally, both of those features are farther south than they are with this storm.  That keeps all of the elevated warmth out of play and it's a more dynamic storm as the 500mb wave/vort, 850 low, and sfc low are all closer together.  You can see it here - http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2002/us0103.php 

Of course, there are other types of setups that give us snow...like Jan 1988 which was strong overrunning into a very cold airmass (diff setup)

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4 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi  2h2 hours ago

If nothing else, the GFS is stubborn on attempt at all time record lows in central NC

C1gMwbtXUAE_BU4.jpg:large

That is absolutely insane, but makes sense with the snow cover. 

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yeah nice write up from Phil....and for my laymen's comments on it, the upper wave at 500mb kind of dictates everything.  In the Jan 2002 storm for example that hit ATL to RDU (a different setup with a very strong diving upper wave/low), the 500mb vort max tracked through S GA into S SC and the 850mb low popped in NE SC.  That's ideal for you and I.  Ideally, both of those features are farther south than they are with this storm.  That keeps all of the elevated warmth out of play and it's a more dynamic storm as the 500mb wave/vort, 850 low, and sfc low are all closer together.  You can see it here - http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2002/us0103.php 

Of course, there are other types of setups that give us snow...like Jan 1988 which was strong overrunning into a very cold airmass (diff setup)

Yeah, that's good stuff.  Seems like lately, most 850 lows go right over the Triangle.  Would love to get a true overrunning event again.  We just don't see those outside of the digital universe anymore.

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42 minutes ago, JQPublic said:

Chatham County Line doing work son!  Good luck to all!

 

1-6-2017 1-29-05 PM.jpg

(My house is a gnat's wing north of that red circle.)

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1 hour ago, phil882 said:

Careful though... because upstream obs show that the warm nose is actually strongest a little bit above 850-hPa which also is showing up on the forecast HRRR soundings near Raleigh overnight. I fear that a lot of the snow in the Euro Snowfall maps may actually be heavy sleet...

52S5W14.png

This seems pretty typical for NC winter storms. That 750-800 mb layer loves to screw us over.  I've seen it many times in my time following these things.

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6 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yeah nice write up from Phil....and for my laymen's comments on it, the upper wave at 500mb kind of dictates everything.  In the Jan 2002 storm for example that hit ATL to RDU (a different setup with a very strong diving upper wave/low), the 500mb vort max tracked through S GA into S SC and the 850mb low popped in NE SC.  That's ideal for you and I.  Ideally, both of those features are farther south than they are with this storm.  That keeps all of the elevated warmth out of play and it's a more dynamic storm as the 500mb wave/vort, 850 low, and sfc low are all closer together.  You can see it here - http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2002/us0103.php 

Of course, there are other types of setups that give us snow...like Jan 1988 which was strong overrunning into a very cold airmass (diff setup)

Good point... see in the case of the the Jan 2002 storm you had a lot of upper-level forcing that was running the show (i.e., the 500hPa low was stronger than the sfc vortex) so where the 500-hPa low went, so did the other low-level features in tandem slightly to the south and east (with the exception of the sfc vortex). The surface vortex is a trickier entity to figure out because at the surface there is always a lot of natural baroclinicity offshore (because the gulf stream is so warm, and the land immediately adjacent is typically much colder).

This event is closer in setup to the January 1988 snowstorm which was almost all frontogenesis/overrunning precipitation which featured a broad open 500-hPa wave. 

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1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said:

Fwiw hrrr seems to keep shifting snow rain line south. Hopefully a trend 

Cary's getting HRRRd!  Don't do it man!  I've seen it do that before, only to break your heart with wintry mix.

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2 minutes ago, phil882 said:

Good point... see in the case of the the Jan 2002 storm you had a lot of upper-level forcing that was running the show (i.e., the 500hPa low was stronger than the sfc vortex) so where the 500-hPa low went, so did the other low-level features in tandem slightly to the south and east (with the exception of the sfc vortex). The surface vortex is a trickier entity to figure out because at the surface there is always a lot of natural baroclinicity offshore (because the gulf stream is so warm, and the land immediately adjacent is typically much colder).

This event is closer in setup to the January 1988 snowstorm which was almost all frontogenesis/overrunning precipitation which featured a broad open 500-hPa wave. 

2

29 years to the date of the 88 storm. 

Thanks for the thoughts Phil.

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Cary's getting HRRRd!  Don't do it man!  I've seen it do that before, only to break your heart with wintry mix.

Yes, I noticed 18z ticked south and east around CLT as well.  This is going to drive me and my family crazy the rest of the night. I don't know why I do this to myself...:wacko::twister:

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