CentralNC Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: The SLP track exiting the gom off the se coast is the whole key now. Gfs has consistently been off shore through the gom and exiting stage right central florida coast. Hence why its been able to keep everyone colder. It's been on a island imo with the deepest track. Ukie and now every model has SLP tracking lock tight along gulf coast and exiting jax north into atlantic. Interested to see gfs track of SLP here in a few minutes. That track effects everything. So true. everything keys off of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: RGEM this run is just killing the upstate through Charlotte to Raleigh. Looking good as we progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: RGEM this run is just killing the upstate through Charlotte to Raleigh. So it's colder than the NAM for RDU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 And now the RGEM clown map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sakau2007 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, shahroz98 said: I think CAE and BMX are out of the game at this point, as well as Macon,GA Really? I thought things were actually trending a little bit better for Birmingham, particularly the south and east areas of town. We were never going to get 6"+ like NC... but 2-3" of sleet/snow seems plausible... 1" seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The rock steady RGEM just moved the rain/snow line northwest. And so will the rock steady GFS and the rock steady CMC and the rock steady European in just a little bit. That's a bummer...RGEM is probably 50/50 sleet snow for Wake give or take. And it may not be done shifting north.... The QPF is crazy though...I don't even know how much sleet/snow this is yet but it's alot. 925's were fine and 2m's were just below 30 and the bottom drops off at the end, 850's were close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 rgem did tick northwest a bit with snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, MotoWeatherman said: And now the RGEM clown map... Josh , that's got us in the double digits and Shetley! Lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM does have some PType issues in ATL and RDU possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Starting to get some consistency with the 0z models nam, sref, and rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Hell, that puts me at about 1.1 qpf! I can sacrifice.25 or so to the sleet/rain gods! GGEM FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, shahroz98 said: Im assuming thats a sold 4 to 8 inches in Atlanta ? ATL will have some PTYPE issues so likely not 8 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: That's a bummer...RGEM is probably 50/50 sleet snow for Wake give or take. And it may not be done shifting north.... The QPF is crazy though...I don't even know how much sleet/snow this is yet but it's alot. 925's were fine and 2m's were just below 30 and the bottom drops off at the end, 850's were close. Maybe the storm can bomb off ga, carolina coast, go neg and just cool the column from top down. Just don't see sleet mixing in no wider than a 30 mile path if that. It's Snow/ Rain, it's miller A textbook. If your rates are thumping the column will cool top down and hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 How would you like to be a forecaster in the southern half of Alabama, toggling the 0z NAM and 0z RGEM back and forth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Why does the Para NAM have a lot more snow south and east of RDU than the regular NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM was a thing of beauty for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Raleigh had wiggle room at 18z run of RGEM....we don't now with 0z run. Question is, does it keep ticking NW. Whoever is just north of that sleet/rain line is going to jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Looks like the Georgia sweet spot will be from Gwinnett to Gainesville to Toccoa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS out to 15, slightly warmer in NC/SC....otherwise, the wave in N Mexico looks about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Meteo out for RGEM for Raleigh...90% snow but a hair more NW and we cave to alot more sleet. This is 12" of snow and some sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 rgem looks like all snow for wake cty, but it is dang close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, ST21 said: Looks like the Georgia sweet spot will be from Gwinnett to Gainesville to Toccoa. Seems more like Cobb, N Fulton, through hall after the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM for ATL is a mess...that would be a nasty winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MississippiWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Raleigh had wiggle room at 18z run of RGEM....we don't now with 0z run. Question is, does it keep ticking NW. Whoever is just north of that sleet/rain line is going to jack. I guess the RGEM on Tropical Tidbits can differentiate between ice and snow. If not, then the RGEM and NAM are vastly different in their snow/ice accumulations in South MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The GFS has finally figured out it isn't going to be 44 at 18z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Wave at 24 in OK is very similar, a tad faster, just barely...doesn't looked like it will be an amped up run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RPM still 4" most of ATL north of I-20. Same as last run basically. Snow/sleet line very close to the city. Farther south than the NAM for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, mckinnonwg said: Where can you find the RGEM meteo Here you go. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=us&run=00&mod=gemreg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS out to 15, slightly warmer in NC/SC....otherwise, the wave in N Mexico looks about the same 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The GFS has finally figured out it isn't going to be 44 at 18z tomorrow. Which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Nice plume of moisture on GFS between 27-30 from ATL to Greenville, NC...will have to diagnose ptypes...CLT to RDU is snow...and N upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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