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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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1 minute ago, superjames1992 said:

The NAM is a Big Frosty special. Even the Triad looks close to mixing, it would seem.  Yikes.

Never fails lol. Goes from 0 to jackpot on coastals like clockwork espeacilly if the run just inland by a hair, which is what just happened on the nam. I'd could see this happening, not to far fetched and it will screw the. Coastal plain till backside. But caution it's nam and sref, they are one of the same family. Need more evidence before buying this sharper tit to the trough. Both options are on the table still. 

Nam has been to fast and that's why we haven't seen it spit out one of its extreme runs. It finally slowed down the sw, had time to deepen and turn sharper.

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2 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

All this NAM run was confirm to me personally that if the actual low pressure center comes in any farther South than what the NAM is modeling, Atlanta will be getting a very nice snow storm. That or hope the high pressure to the north is stronger than modeled or further to the southeast.

The low levels will be cold enough.  Its the mid level warmth.  It may end up mostly a sleet event there not changing to snow til 07-08z

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NAM might just be NAM-ing me and now I'm on the southern fringe of high totals. Not complaining because it still has SE VA at 8-12". If GFS or Euro follow along tonight to a warmer solution for MBY I'll start sweating. NWS Wakefield is still not issuing wsw's even though we are around 24 hrs from the onset of precip.

Hopefully my post won't be deleted again, I know it's a busy time however idk what rule did I break

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Where the NAM goes wrong..is further out in time it explodes Asheville mountain area with fantasy precip and shoves it north-west. Out to 26 looks right with little to nothing south-central VA, north-west NC, north-west GA, while the main areas pile up.

Precip progression is key and the main areas see it first. Makes me doubt further out in time.

nam3km_asnow_seus_27.png

gfsp_asnow_eus_fh72_trend.gif

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8 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

About half the SREF is made up of a NAMesque suite so this is not a surprise, or really an indication where the 0z globals or RGEM will go.

I said same thing in my post and to re emphasize sref and nam are 1 in 2 , 2 in 1 same family, so everyone would be wise to wait for more evidence from other models before tipping the hat. I will say this though the nam and sref really throw suport to trough axis sfl placement in the ukmet and that german model camp. Now thermal profiles that's always impossible to nail exactly this far out.

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2 minutes ago, packbacker said:

12z Para...hard to argue the NW trend inside 48.  The NAM's are probably onto something...sucks for us in Raleigh but can't deny it.

 

The way I'm thinking about it is we may get some mixing, but that's due to getting more moisture on shore - the jackpots are very close to us.. 

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1 minute ago, packbacker said:

12z Para...hard to argue the NW trend inside 48.  The NAM's are probably onto something...sucks for us in Raleigh but can't deny it.

gfsp_asnow_eus_fh72_trend.gif

The NW trend is happening but i really think the NAM is too far NW. i remember models showing the heaviest precip to our southeast.  it's slowly moved up in our direction.  Unless the Euro and GFS cave to the NAM i wont take it seriously

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Where the NAM goes wrong..is further out in time it explodes Asheville mountain area with fantasy precip and shoves it north-west. Out to 26 looks right with little to nothing south-central VA, north-west NC, north-west GA, while the main areas pile up.

Precip progression is key and the main areas see it first. Makes me doubt further out in time.

nam3km_asnow_seus_27.png&key=1dcca8877c4fa408cf81d5b335d488deb52b8670af528f663c9f2d4bf6699b67

gfsp_asnow_eus_fh72_trend.gif



That's not fantasy precip, I mentioned several days ago to keep an eye out for a finger of precip that could extend out from the main batch. This happened with the Dec '10 storm for the Mtn's and foothills adding to the totals drastically. Some folks in the Mtn's and foothills may get 1-3" before the main show even arrives and that's what the NAM is showing.


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Just now, ajr said:

The way I'm thinking about it is we may get some mixing, but that's due to getting more moisture on shore - the jackpots are very close to us.. 

I have little doubt the triangle will mix, especially in SE Wake but the NAM's are almost all sleet, and a shout away from rain.   I was hoping for 50/50 mix.

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5 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

The NW trend is happening but i really think the NAM is too far NW. i remember models showing the heaviest precip to our southeast.  it's slowly moved up in our direction.  Unless the Euro and GFS cave to the NAM i wont take it seriously

what you are forgetting is that the 18Z OP GFS stopped its NW trend and held firm. OP and Para have been step and step together so at 18z the para very very likely quit its NW trend

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About the mixing - I don't see that as such a bad thing.  Sure a boatload of snow is cool.  However, my experience has taught me that the same qpf of sleet takes longer to melt than the same qpf of snow.  Also, the sleet makes for much better sledding.  So, I don't put as much distinction between snow and sleet as most.  Enjoy whatever you get.

TW

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