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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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3 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

I've seen the SREF used in many storms on here in past years... it gives a false hope and many times is WAY off so I wouldn't put much stock in it at this point. RGEM and GFS/Euro combo are tough to beat imo especially under 36 hours. 

Tell GSP NWS that. They love the SREF and have a pretty good track record. The SREF members for GSP have anymore from zero to twelve inches. :blink: :lol:

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I'm having trouble putting much faith into the SREF plumes, in general. They seem to tend to have a lot of outliers on either end wrt snowfall output. For example, the 21z SREF plumes for the Person County Airport station (which I'm using because it's the closest to my location) has about 4-5 members showing very little snow (<1") and 4-5 showing more than 16". This seems to happen with every notable storm here, and it tends to balance out in the end, but that's not really how I'd want to be achieving that sort of end result.

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9 minutes ago, rdwhynot said:

Latest Plume for KBHM...  A few showing some nice accumulations.  

 

2017-01-05 19_48_00-NCEP SREF Plume Viewer_KBHM.jpg

Okay, need help with this one. Does the clusters of data points at the lower end mean that most members fall between 0 and 2 (7 total), and then 4 between 2 and 4, then 2 between 4 and 6, finally 1 at 6-8 then the other at just over 10?   

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Roa has 13 member above the mean and 8 below and like I said, 1 was 0.  I do not trust it because it gave me some snow on some storm in the past couple of years that just did not happen but this is a big jump late.  Also, at least the last two para hi-res and 4k NAM runs were better here than the normal runs so if it is the NAM on crack, it is the whole NAM family.

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3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Tell GSP NWS that. They love the SREF and have a pretty good track record. The SREF members for GSP have anymore from zero to twelve inches. :blink: :lol:

 

Every year this happens when we get a snow threat within 72 hours, people pull out the SREF and get their hopes up. Most times it disappoints. I've found over the years the RGEM is one of the best models inside 36 hours especially with transition zones and qpf. 

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Like others have said, don't buy into SREF just yet.  That much of a shift in the track and pulling the low up the east coast seems a little out there when there are so many reasons why that shouldn't happen.   The Globals have all held serve.   I still think a blend of the EURO/GFS is still the most likely outcome. 

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13 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

Folks in RDU and points east sweating it out right now..

Nah the NAM is the NAM, even the para NAM disagrees with it or at least it did at 18Z, it also has a well known bias to over amplify storms in the 24-36 hr range....if the 00Z GFS suddenly jumps ship then I will sweat since its been rock stready more or less since Tuesday..... the RGEM which is a much better short term model IMO has trended back SE with its snow totals and the GFS absolutely destroys us.....still expecting 6-12" here east of RDU.....

 

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

Nah the NAM is the NAM, even the para NAM disagrees with it or at least it did at 18Z, it also has a well known bias to over amplify storms in the 24-36 hr range....if the 00Z GFS suddenly jumps ship then I will sweat since its been rock stready more or less since Tuesday..... the RGEM which is a much better short term model IMO has trended back SE with its snow totals and the GFS absolutely destroys us.....still expecting 6-12" here east of RDU.....

 

 

im not too concerned seeing that literally every gefs ens member/euro ens member/rgem disagrees with the nam. truly on an island.  like i said in the sanitarium, if it nails this it will be the coup of the century.

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2 hours ago, Wow said:
3 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

The NAM is a Big Frosty special. Even the Triad looks close to mixing, it would seem.  Yikes.

Since the NAM initialized 5 degrees warm here, might want to check and see if it did so elsewhere. Not sure what difference it would make, but it started us at 48 degrees ... where it's 43 now.

 

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