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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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9 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

AM 500mb analysis shows the short wave over northern CA looking a bit stronger than the GFS showed at 6 hours. This seems to be borne out by water vapor loops.

Screen Shot 2017-01-05 at 8.28.42 AM.png

This is looking like a decent event for Atlanta isn't it?  I've never seen you so engaged and optimistic about a winter event for us. 

 

To ecpand and on your point about temps.  It was 29 in Lithia springs this morning in the way in to the office. 

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3 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I'm  not sure I buy that warm nose in this situation. Is the GFS the only model showing it? I can't think of what would cause  it in such a pronounced  and small location.Hopefully that doesn't happen or it's  heartbreak city for those of us! 

Lookout had a very good write up about it. It is the way the winds converge in the Savannah river basin that causes a warm bubble and it seems it is pretty common when you need to cold air to come over the mountain and the moisture from the GOM. I am sure Lookout could explain it better. 

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. Hopefully there will be enough cold air near the end of the storm to allow you to receive at least a little snow.

Appreciate the positive thoughts, Don!  Your input is always welcome! You're right...the only hope we have is for a changeover during the early morning hours Saturday before the moisture pulls out.  I would be glad just to see a few flakes flying!  If I drive about an hour north, I should be able to get into the accumulating snow south of Atlanta.

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Ahh I love it.  NAM clearly moving toward the ICON with a stronger s/w.  It's pulling in more energy from the tail end of the northern energy as it slides down.  You can clearly see the 540dm contour trend west and bend into the s/w.

ZyFDaj5.png

Compared to yesterdays 18z

BKqF5xp.png

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I wonder why NWS Raleigh didn't feel inclined to include the Triad in the Winter Storm Watches?  Models have been steadily increasing totals. If it doesn't pan out, they could go to an Advisory tomorrow instead of a warning.  In their briefing this morning, my county (Randolph) is projected to get from 3 to as much as 8 inches.  Call me mildly perplexed.

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4 minutes ago, Wow said:

Ahh I love it.  NAM clearly moving toward the ICON with a stronger s/w.  It's pulling in more energy from the tail end of the northern energy as it slides down.  You can clearly see the 540dm contour trend west and bend into the s/w.

 

Absolutely.  AT hr 18 its' stronger and digging further south and west around the four corners.  East looks the same so far.

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2 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said:

Absolutely.  AT hr 18 its' strong and digging further south and west around the four corners.  East looks the same so far.

This is usually why NW trends occur.  The s/w trends stronger and/or weakens slower.  Hopefully we can deliver wintry precip to as many of us before WAA takes over for those further east.

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1 minute ago, packfan98 said:

I wonder why NWS Raleigh didn't feel inclined to include the Triad in the Winter Storm Watches?  Models have been steadily increasing totals. If it doesn't pan out, they could go to an Advisory tomorrow instead of a warning.  In their briefing this morning, my county (Randolph) is projected to get from 3 to as much as 8 inches.  Call me mildly perplexed.

Me too - if this pans out anywhere near what models are showing, I have a feeling a lot of people won't be prepared. 

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Just now, ajr said:

Me too - if this pans out anywhere near what models are showing, I have a feeling a lot of people won't be prepared. 

Oh, I think they will be between social media and TV.  Most TV mets have everyone with at least an inch of snow.  I'm sure that will go up today.  It's just a little curious that NWS didn't put their entire region under a Watch.

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4 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

I wonder why NWS Raleigh didn't feel inclined to include the Triad in the Winter Storm Watches?  Models have been steadily increasing totals. If it doesn't pan out, they could go to an Advisory tomorrow instead of a warning.  In their briefing this morning, my county (Randolph) is projected to get from 3 to as much as 8 inches.  Call me mildly perplexed.

I think they said they planned to wait until the midday update to hoist watches. 

TW

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5 minutes ago, Wow said:

This is usually why NW trends occur.  The s/w trends stronger and/or weakens slower.  Hopefully we can deliver wintry precip to as many of us before WAA takes over for those further east.

Sounds like some are worry about temps near RDU if it keeps coming in stronger. You think that's a concern?

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3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

NAM looks basically identical to the GFS at 24. However, it looks again to be weakening the vort too fast so I expect snow totals will not ramp up to GFS levels just yet- we shall see.

Usually does, but the trend is quite clear.

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4 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

They did.  However they just hoisted them anyway for all counties except for Forsyth, Guilford, Randolph, Davidson, and Alamance.

C1aX4pLWQAA0bK8.jpg

same here I still thought with nw trends going on that all of wnc would be in the winter storm watch area, its not that far off from all in wnc a good snowfall

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This is usually why NW trends occur.  The s/w trends stronger and/or weakens slower.  Hopefully we can deliver wintry precip to as many of us before WAA takes over for those further east.


One thing Robert used to talk about was how long track upper lows/waves tend to weaken slower than modeled so that the models slowly pick up on it over time. This is a long track wave. The obvious concern there is that those on the southeast fringe may not like it due to possible warming with a stronger system
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4 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

DG on wyff 4, must be the Glenn Burns of GSP!!!!! SMDH! Just showed a model, don't know where he even dug it up from!? Shows about an hour of snow Friday night, and that is IT!! While the Fox met, showed all possibilities, even showed the NAM and RPM, and said we could get 2-6", and are under a WSW! DGs model gives us 0!? They are all hyping the cold to follow 

In January 2011, I never forgot Dale Gilbert on the 12pm newscast said there would be only a few flurries in the upstate overnight, "sorry kids" there will be school tomorrow. Woke up the next morning with 9 inches of snow and could hardly open the back door.... Just saying.... Our area had widespread snow of 6-9 inches....

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2 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said:

In January 2011, I never forgot Dale Gilbert on the 12pm newscast said there would be only a few flurries in the upstate overnight, "sorry kids" there will be school tomorrow. Woke up the next morning with 9 inches of snow and could hardly open the back door.... Just saying.... Our area had widespread snow of 6-9 inches....

Yeah, this storm has a good chance to be the biggest over a more widespread area, since the 2011 storm!

IF, IF, temps aren't a concern! They showed that bubble with windflow arrows on TWC this morning, and it looked like through Greenville, the winds were NEasterly, and coming from ATL, they were NWesterly, and they kind of converged on the Lookout bubble.

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