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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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Heh, RNK is saying 1-3" IMBY in Blacksburg (up from 1" in the morning forecast cycle). 0z RAP and HRRR say something closer to 4-6" (5" on 10:1 0.5" liquid), SREF went ham at 21z and says something closer to 9". I didn't really prepare for anything. Mescoscale discussion with me smack in the 1" hourly rates means maybe RNK is most likely to bust here. That gradient is going to be tight...

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2 minutes ago, The Alchemist said:

I can attest to that up here in saluda NC....  Been snowing about an hour, and have 1 1/2 inches on top of the inch I got this afternoon...  hasn't snowed this hard up hear since Dec. 2010...

 

Same here. Just rolling outside. However, 2010 brought tons of small flakes that added up. 

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5 minutes ago, Gastonwxman said:

That's what I'm hoping for here in my area.  Been through 3 rounds of pure raging sleet all day with no flakes of snow to show despite having such being reported all around my area except to my south...It's a bit annoying when it snows in nearly every other direction but not where you live lol.  Snow should get going here pretty soon between now and midnight, at least...

your description matches mby this afternoon perfectly lol...although i actually had some plain rain too.  the snow sort of seemed to move in an arc around here and then finally came roaring in

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3 minutes ago, RaleighWx said:

NAM has 1.75 to 2 inches of QPF for Raleigh area from 7pm today to 7pm Saturday. Down below 32 now, so that should be all frozen for me.

Thanks Alan.  Has the temp profile changed on the Nam...moved further south at all?  Or are we just looking at an increase in moisture?

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Why do we keep looking at this farce!

its had me anywhere from 7-9", every run! I've had only rain and 0 850s are like 50 miles to my north! Ground truth is that model sucks! 

Actually the 0 degree 850 line is about right over you and 925 is well below 0.  I think surface temps are killing you guys down there as well as up here in the bottom 2/3's of Mecklenburg

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3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Why do we keep looking at this farce!

its had me anywhere from 7-9", every run! I've had only rain and 0 850s are like 50 miles to my north! Ground truth is that model sucks! 

You would think it would be better as we get closer to the storm.  Here is the 4K NAM snow map:

nam4km_asnow_seus_11.png

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6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Here you go you circus animals!  This is the 12K NAM.namconus_asnow_seus_9.png

 

we are gonna get rocked! i hope.. scary how close this is to the GFS posted earlier. GFS was on to something by sticking to it's guns.  if it verifies the GFS won this event..

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I'm not gonna call no names but a Met with Initals  JB  said He thought models would correct west for several days!! then that NAM run last night he said he could believe it. Some on here laugh and said he sucked. Well guess what they shifted west...................... Guess he didn't suck all that bad with this storm. huh!! 

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