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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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1 minute ago, SnowNiner said:

Matt East in his video mentioned he thought the 850 line would set up somewhere SW of CLT and NW of the city should stay 90% snow.  Sitting at Mt Island lake, about as far NW Mecklenburg County you can be, I hope that tune stays.  The NW trend can stop now!

SW OR SE of CLT?

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1 minute ago, SnowNiner said:

Matt East in his video mentioned he thought the 850 line would set up somewhere SW of CLT and NW of the city should stay 90% snow.  Sitting at Mt Island lake, about as far NW Mecklenburg County you can be, I hope that tune stays.  The NW trend can stop now!

Warmest panel on the latest HRRR brings rain to the south tip of Meck and Wake counties

be7otf.gif

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3 minutes ago, griteater said:

Warmest panel on the latest HRRR brings rain to the south tip of Meck and Wake counties

be7otf.gif

pfew! If that image happened my house in Concord would be getting smoked with ++snow. Gonna be a long evening and night watching where the transition line set up

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Just now, Cold Rain said:

Awesome, thank you.  So last question for future learning...if this storm were stronger (let's say it were to bomb out, which it won't...but if it did), would that drag the 850 low farther south in better proximity to the surface cyclone?  I realize that if it were strengthening rapidly, it would gain latitude, in which case all features would eventually be north.  I guess I'm just wondering if it were stronger, would the 850 low be closer to the surface cyclone farther south?

Good question! The answer depends on where the strongest baroclinicity (i.e., temperature gradient) is. Right now the system is weak because the baroclinicity is starting out diffuse and the front at 850hPa is detached from where the front is at the surface (which is why there are p-type issues in the first place). As the storm intensifies, these baroclinic zones will get closer together due to frontogenesis (which just means tightening of the temperature gradient). This pulls the sfc cyclone closer to the 850hPa low, and the 850hPa low pulls closer to the sfc cyclone.

In this case, the sfc vortex is still stronger than the 850-hPa low which is barely closed, so the 850-hPa vortex is probably more likely to migrate towards the sfc cyclone than vice versa over time (and why the warm nose should probably crash towards the NC/VA coastline at the end of the event).

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21 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Matt East in his video mentioned he thought the 850 line would set up somewhere SW of CLT and NW of the city should stay 90% snow.  Sitting at Mt Island lake, about as far NW Mecklenburg County you can be, I hope that tune stays.  The NW trend can stop now!

I'm feeling good at you and I staying mostly snow once things settle in.  Have to keep our eyes on Phil's coefficient radar loop though. Grit should feel prettt good too, Wow and QC are sitting best when it comes to keeping mixing at bay.

 

Edit:. And then there is the latest HRRR.  Gonna be close here.

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3 minutes ago, phil882 said:

Good question! The answer depends on where the strongest baroclinicity (i.e., temperature gradient) is. Right now the system is weak because the baroclinicity is starting out diffuse and the front at 850hPa is detached from where the front is at the surface (which is why there are p-type issues in the first place). As the storm intensifies, these baroclinic zones will get closer together due to frontogenesis (which just means tightening of the temperature gradient). This pulls the sfc cyclone closer to the 850hPa low, and the 850hPa low pulls closer to the sfc cyclone.

In this case, the sfc vortex is still stronger than the 850-hPa low which is barely closed, so the 850-hPa vortex is probably more likely to migrate towards the sfc cyclone than vice versa over time (and why the warm nose should probably crash towards the NC/VA coastline at the end of the event).

Great stuff as always.  Thank you.  Really helps illustrate how all of these processes relate to each other.  Hopefully, we can crash the warm nose east a little sooner than forecast with this one, though that's not seeming like a high probability at present.

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4 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

I'm feeling good at you and I staying mostly snow once things settle in.  Have to keep our eyes on Phil's coefficient radar loop though. Grit should feel prettt good too, Wow and QC are sitting best when it comes to keeping mixing at bay.

Yeah, I hope so, everything I've seen so far other than the HRRR keeps the 850s SE of CLT proper the whole time starting at midnight or so.  To me this is a quick hitter so if we get into sleet, I think the lower 3 inch calls will be a good bet

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So how accurate is the HRRR for say 10-20 miles on the snow/IP gradient?  I am literally that close in Cary when it comes to the latest HRRR.  Is the high res usually pinpoint tight at this range or could it be off?---even way off one way or the other??

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