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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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Most recent HRRR model run has 0" of snow now for my area....west of Atlanta.  Dang that 850 warm is killing us.  Surface continues to hover at 34/35.  With the day not yet at one.  Worried the cool won't get to us in time.  It's going to be a frozen mess with very little snow I am afraid.

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17 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Looks good to me. I have a gut feeling that most of these areas will pan out on the high end of those estimates.

Your earlier comment on Mt Pisgah picking up the higher amounts or a foot seems possible and thankfully we can watch it go down via this webcam... 

http://brpwebcams.org/cam/10/1 

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27 minutes ago, Supercane said:

Was going to ask the same thing. Just looking at those maps, that doesn't look as terrible from CLT to RDU as the P-type maps. Maybe the modeled warm nose is stronger at a slightly lower or higher level than 850mb?

By the way Supercane and Packbacker, remember back in the summer how we talked about +QBO/Cool ENSO winters being better for snow chances than -QBO/Cool ENSO winters...ha

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With the amount of arctic air pouring in, and already starting to make it over the mountains, I really struggle to see how surface temps would support plain rain for the upstate, CLT, and even points further south and east. Sure 850s may torch and we end up with a sleetfest, but I'm just not seeing this as a rainstorm (yet).

 

I'm also hoping the low deepens closer to the warm waters (72+) of the gulf stream off SC/SE NC rather than the relatively cold waters just offshore, which would allow winds aloft to scour out the WAA.

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1 minute ago, localyokelweather said:

Your earlier comment on Mt Pisgah picking up the higher amounts or a foot seems possible and thankfully we can watch it go down via this webcam... 

http://brpwebcams.org/cam/10/1 

Wahhh?! Heck yea! I didn't even know they had one up there. These type of storms are where Pisgah really cashes in.

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2 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said:

Most recent HRRR model run has 0" of snow now for my area....west of Atlanta.  Dang that 850 warm is killing us.  Surface continues to hover at 34/35.  With the day not yet at one.  Worried the cool won't get to us in time.  It's going to be a frozen mess with very little snow I am afraid.

Having lived all of my life in Carrollton I would say there will be more sleet than snow but I could be wrong.

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13 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

MBY had been in the bullseye on the GFS, now I am thinking I may get hosed.  That warm nose just sucks.

 You might end up having to deal with more sleet than expected but looks like you should start seeing sleet mixed in maybe as early as late this afternoon..certainly by 0z. You are right on the line aloft like many..a few miles will make a big difference as far as time of changeover using 850mb temps (low level temps are much more in your favor) . Trust me you are in a lot better spot than i am...which is why i'm heading for the hills lol

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3 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said:

Most recent HRRR model run has 0" of snow now for my area....west of Atlanta.  Dang that 850 warm is killing us.  Surface continues to hover at 34/35.  With the day not yet at one.  Worried the cool won't get to us in time.  It's going to be a frozen mess with very little snow I am afraid.

The HRRR right now shows a huge division from NW side to SE side.  It more or less never turns the southern suburbs over til maybe the last hour or two.  I don't know if I buy that because those are some low DPs just to the north.  I think surface cold is being underestimated slightly by the HRRR by you.

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1 minute ago, SnowDeac said:

With the amount of arctic air pouring in, and already starting to make it over the mountains, I really struggle to see how surface temps would support plain rain for the upstate, CLT, and even points further south and east. Sure 850s may torch and we end up with a sleetfest, but I'm just not seeing this as a rainstorm (yet).

 

I'm also hoping the low deepens closer to the warm waters (72+) of the gulf stream off SC/SE NC rather than the relatively cold waters just offshore, which would allow winds aloft to scour out the WAA.

The 925s are too warm. There's a ridiculous warm nose at 925mb for GA, SC, and parts of NC hours 6-12 based on the latest GFS run. That being said, I agree that Charlotte will have more sleet than rain.

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3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

 You might end up having to deal with more sleet than expected but looks like you should start seeing sleet mixed in maybe as early as late this afternoon..certainly by 0z. You are right on the line aloft like many..a few miles will make a big difference as far as time of changeover using 850mb temps (low level temps are much more in your favor) . Trust me you are in a lot better spot than i am...which is why i'm heading for the hills lol

Long time lurker, weather enthusiast... I just recently moved to Braselton, Georgia.. just above I85. Do you have that map? Curious to see what the 850mb temps look like IMBY.

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32 minutes ago, BFF said:

Grit, do you have links to any FGEN products? Lost my links for those.

College of Dupage has 850mb and 700mb FGEN - http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

FSU page has it for a mean layer - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/

Here's the 850mb frontogenesis on the NAM as seen from NW of CLT to GSO

y2t8o.gif

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4 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

The 925s are too warm. There's a ridiculous warm nose at 925mb for GA, SC, and parts of NC hours 6-12 based on the latest GFS run. That being said, I agree that Charlotte will have more sleet than rain.

Are the 925mb temps supposed to retreat because according to the SPC mesoscale analysis page they're subfreezing across N. GA (0°F line S of I-20; running parallel to I-85).

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13 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said:

Most recent HRRR model run has 0" of snow now for my area....west of Atlanta.  Dang that 850 warm is killing us.  Surface continues to hover at 34/35.  With the day not yet at one.  Worried the cool won't get to us in time.  It's going to be a frozen mess with very little snow I am afraid.

I would not use the HRRR for temp profiles.  Just use it for the reflectivity.

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14 minutes ago, Wow said:

For once, it would be kind of nice to see a storm over-perform from what the models are showing.  Is Jan '03 the last one, or Feb '04?

Feb 2004. Big time over performer, We doubled and almost tripled forecast totals.

Thinking I have a shot for this storm to get into my top 5 all time greatest NCSNOW events here. Not sure it'll make it but its got a shot to push the envelope.

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It basically starts just east of 285, thats probably why the HRRR more or less freezes that FZRA or PL line from 01-05Z right there.

 

GFS is a little more generous when it comes to that warm nose and keeps it farther east. HRRR kind of screws me though. Hoping the GFS temp profile verifies so I can get more sleet than rain.

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1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said:

It's mainly a problem for Eastern GA. 925s are fine for the Atlanta area and most of North GA.

What do the 925s need to be at? They appear to be at 1c and the 850s at 4c at my specific location in far nothern Barrow county.

gfs.850th.us_se.2017010612-loop.gif

gfs.925th.us_se.2017010612-loop.gif

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15 minutes ago, Lookout said:

 You might end up having to deal with more sleet than expected but looks like you should start seeing sleet mixed in maybe as early as late this afternoon..certainly by 0z. You are right on the line aloft like many..a few miles will make a big difference as far as time of changeover using 850mb temps (low level temps are much more in your favor) . Trust me you are in a lot better spot than i am...which is why i'm heading for the hills lol

I don't blame you.  I have a lot of friends in Athens who are just super upset with this setup.  LOL

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1 minute ago, phobos said:

What do the 925s need to be at? They appear to be at 1c and the 850s at 4c at my specific location in far nothern Barrow county.

 

 

 

If you want snow, the entire column needs to be below freezing(both 850s and 925s). If you want more sleet instead of rain, you need the 925s to be below freezing.

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