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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

^ Corrected my statement...meant to say NW of Charlotte to Hickory

Yep, looks like the gradient packing is literally running 85.  I don't think I miss out on the mixing here across from Mt Holly but have a feeling that the majority of precip will be snow.  We are basically in nowcast mode anyway, that said the temperature and dew point currently shown at KCLT is a little concerning.  The good thing going is we do have a NE wind, interesting to see what observations become as we enter the mid to late afternoon.

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Just now, MotoWeatherman said:

When we get in this super short range I like to track the HRRR model for potential shifts.  It runs every hour and the latest 14z run has the heavy precip band further north for sure across GA.  I don't really like it for P-Type stuff so this look all I'm interested in is the potential radar presentation.

 

hrrr_2017010614_ref_georgia.gif

yeah..same here. I also don't like following it's surface temps..usually it's way too warm.  You sure look to be in a good spot now. 

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5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

The track of this system looks like a decent track for the Triangle back toward Charlotte in terms of snow, but the thermals don't match that at all.

Sfc low track and upper jet structure are classic.  The 500mb wave and 850mb low are tracking too far north....need those farther south to be ideal

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12 minutes ago, griteater said:

Here are the warmest panels with respect to CLT to RDU on the RGEM and GFS.  Very similar with the 0 deg line, but go with the higher resolution RGEM in terms of the tight packing / gradient in the contours just north of the 0 deg line.  Going to see enhanced precip where that gradient packs (frontogenesis).  This suggests somewhere NW of Charlotte, to Hickory, to Greensboro and Burlington is potentially in the sweet spot in this area.

wujmv7.gif

Reminding me of March '09 a bit

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21 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Southern Upslope areas would likely cash in very good as well. 6-7"+ for Southern Jackson, Transylvania and most of Henderson I would assume.

That's our thinking. The escarpment is gonna ramp up and hold onto moisture more than other areas across SW NC. I think the max spot will be near Hogback and Lake Toxaway. This is our call for the event... 

1.5.17 SNOWCAST MAP_3.png

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19 minutes ago, CherokeeGA said:

After days of thinking this would mostly be south of us, I'm starting to hope we'll get a few inches.  You might have some good luck around here, we're a bit southeast of Ball Ground.

The bufkit at kpdk has it at 7.1" sn when I last looked.  For what that's worth. 

KPDK is still some 16-18 miles south of me, though, and over the ridge.  I have often wished we had a station a bit more central to north GA, there's nothing between KPDK and KBRA/KCHA and that's a lot of pretty fairly populated land between those three.

Mr. Chill, as long as it happens on a weekend, I say shut it ALL down.  Jan 2011 was great for that reason, it happened on a Sunday and so we were all home (for days, heh).  I only get unhappy about it when kids are on buses at 3am because nobody here ever wants to close a school or business on a weekday. :)

Try wunderground there are plenty

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3 minutes ago, localyokelweather said:

That's our thinking. The escarpment is gonna ramp up and hold onto moisture more than other areas across SW NC. I think the max spot will be near Hogback and Lake Toxaway. This is our call for the event... 

 

 

Thanks for posting Yokel! Would be a great hike up the Blue Wall Tomorrow. 

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3 minutes ago, localyokelweather said:

That's our thinking. The escarpment is gonna ramp up and hold onto moisture more than other areas across SW NC. I think the max spot will be near Hogback and Lake Toxaway. This is our call for the event... 

1.5.17 SNOWCAST MAP_3.png

Looks good to me. I have a gut feeling that most of these areas will pan out on the high end of those estimates.

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14 minutes ago, SnowDeac said:

Grit, if those are the warmest panels, I'm confused why models (especially short term) are now showing plain rain for a good portion of the storm for CLT and points SE. Overdoing WAA somehow, I hope?

Hard to say, but when it doubt, go warm as Cold Rain would say.  The one thing with this setup is that the 850 low isn't strong...it gets a little stronger as it treks east.  Also, the 850 trough is positive tilt so there's not a ton of warmth at 850 screaming in from the SE, but the tight gradient does setup.  Again I like 2-4 sleet/snow on south side, 3-6 snow and sleet on north side of CLT

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2 minutes ago, WXinCanton said:

Try wunderground there are plenty

Yeh I mean official stations, that are logged in the historical records with fairly complete data.  It's actually quite difficult to find detailed snow records for this area, b/c GA doesn't have a university compiling those really great reports with p-type/amt maps like NC has, and there's only one official station north of ATL metro and it's way up in Blairsville near the state line.  There's some basic temp data and stuff for the Cherokee airport station but they don't keep good p-type/amt records, just basic unattended personal weather station type data.

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Hard to say, but when it doubt, go warm as Cold Rain would say.  The one thing with this setup is that the 850 low isn't strong...it gets a little stronger as it treks east.  Also, the 850 trough is positive tilt so there's not a ton of warmth at 850 screaming in from the SE, but the tight gradient does setup.  Again I like 2-4 sleet/snow on south side, 3-6 snow and sleet on north side of CLT

 

What is your prediction for just west of Atlanta

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15 minutes ago, Supercane said:

Was going to ask the same thing. Just looking at those maps, that doesn't look as terrible from CLT to RDU as the P-type maps. Maybe the modeled warm nose is stronger at a slightly lower or higher level than 850mb?

Yeah, just from what I've seen and read, that is true that the max temp in the warm nose is typically just above 850mb....but again, in this setup, we don't have a ton of warmth pouring in from the SE in the CLT area at least (at 850)

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14 minutes ago, Lookout said:

yeah..same here. I also don't like following it's surface temps..usually it's way too warm.  You sure look to be in a good spot now. 

MBY had been in the bullseye on the GFS, now I am thinking I may get hosed.  That warm nose just sucks.

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15 minutes ago, Wow said:

Reminding me of March '09 a bit

That's what I was afraid of earlier with the map I posted.  Grit seemed confident that there would not be a leeside minimum in this storm though.  Latest runs of GFS and RGEM seem to back off from the leeside minimum too.  So, maybe it's similar in track but different in dynamics.

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4 minutes ago, CherokeeGA said:

Yeh I mean official stations, that are logged in the historical records with fairly complete data.  It's actually quite difficult to find detailed snow records for this area, b/c GA doesn't have a university compiling those really great reports with p-type/amt maps like NC has, and there's only one official station north of ATL metro and it's way up in Blairsville near the state line.  There's some basic temp data and stuff for the Cherokee airport station but they don't keep good p-type/amt records, just basic unattended personal weather station type data.

Check georgiaweather.net, reporting station in Blue Ridge.

 

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5 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said:

What is your prediction for just west of Atlanta

Probably 1-2 inches is my guess, closer to 1.  The HRRR and RGEM now are showing a massive ice storm there from 01-06Z.  Hopefully that is more sleet than freezing rain, otherwise they could get a half inch of ice.

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Probably 1-2 inches is my guess, closer to 1.  The HRRR and RGEM now are showing a massive ice storm there from 01-06Z.  Hopefully that is more sleet than freezing rain, otherwise they could get a half inch of ice.

 

Geeeeeeeeez........my thoughts.  That would cause a major shut down here.

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It's been a while since I posted on here, but just wanted to give thanks for everyones input on this storm. I'm only a weather amateur but love it nevertheless. Question on the HRRR and the other short term models. I've heard they generally come in to amped and warm. Would you say that's especially true with this storm? I'm pretty much due ENE of Charlotte a couple of miles and am really hoping mixing is less of a factor then is currently being advertised. Really hoping this storm comes to fruition for all on this board though. I hope E. NC gets in on the love too, as just yesterday they looked to be golden. Good luck to everyone, I hope we all can reel this one in last minute!

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