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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

I saw what the model said, I'm just going with what I think will be realistic for those areas. 10-12" in the Balsams and atop Mt. Pisgah is very likely.

I gotcha. Yeah, I agree, i think it's over done too. I wouldn't be surprised to see a place like highlands get 12+ with that much qpf.

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1 minute ago, NC_hailstorm said:

850 line currently is right on the NC/SC border right through CLT and a little south of Raleigh.-2 to -3 up across the I-40 corrider.

Where the 850 line is now won't matter once this storm begins to develop and ramps up. The track of the 850 low will create big winners and losers.

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1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said:

I gotcha. Yeah, I agree, i think it's over done too. I wouldn't be surprised to see a place like highlands get 12+ with that much qpf.

Sapphire Valley, Highlands, Cashiers, Balsam Grove, Lake Toxaway. Those areas may see a foot. I think for Franklin, Brevard, Hendersonville could all see in the 6-8" range. These areas always do go with winter storms coming out of the GOM.

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1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said:

Atlanta got screwed by the last minute trends yet again. Dissapointing...at this rate IMBY I'll be lucky to get an inch.

Yep.  I'm in a little worse shape here ene of you.

The only thing "good" I could see for our back yards in this run is the GFS paints a rather intense band of rain overhead this evening.  So, in full weenie mode, maybe, just maybe we see a surprise dynamic cooling miracle. 

Actually considered a chase since I could damn near walk, but with the cold following this storm don't want to get stuck away from home for a couple of days.

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12 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Where is moto? Gfs just dumped a foot at his house! 

LOL...Just saw that.  GFS really up ticked the main heavy QPF band along with the RGEM.  But NAM cut it big time for some reason.  Personally I would put more weight with the GFS/RGEM.  But I still feel pretty good for 3-4" at least for Dahlonega.

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2 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said:

Yep.  I'm in a little worse shape here ene of you.

The only thing "good" I could see for our back yards in this run is the GFS paints a rather intense band of rain overhead this evening.  So, in full weenie mode, maybe, just maybe we see a surprise dynamic cooling miracle. 

Actually considered a chase since I could damn near walk, but with the cold following this storm don't want to get stuck away from home for a couple of days.

Yeah the cold after the storm is what worries me. I would go on a snow chase if I knew it would melt relatively quick.

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1 minute ago, Wild Weather Monger said:

Yep.  I'm in a little worse shape here ene of you.

The only thing "good" I could see for our back yards in this run is the GFS paints a rather intense band of rain overhead this evening.  So, in full weenie mode, maybe, just maybe we see a surprise dynamic cooling miracle. 

Actually considered a chase since I could damn near walk, but with the cold following this storm don't want to get stuck away from home for a couple of days.

 

Don't count on dynamic cooling to save you until after midnight at the very least. The fast SW winds at the 850 levels are going to kill you until the 850 mb low is far enough for the north winds to cool down the lower levels again. That's not projected on models until possibly even 2 AM.

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1 hour ago, Cheeznado said:

Well, damn. This looks like a few earlier GFS runs. FWIW the 12Z RPM has less than this, 2-4 across most of north GA from ATL north. Also, the cold air is really coming in, KPDK is down to 34/25. Hmmmmm.

After days of thinking this would mostly be south of us, I'm starting to hope we'll get a few inches.  You might have some good luck around here, we're a bit southeast of Ball Ground.

The bufkit at kpdk has it at 7.1" sn when I last looked.  For what that's worth. 

KPDK is still some 16-18 miles south of me, though, and over the ridge.  I have often wished we had a station a bit more central to north GA, there's nothing between KPDK and KBRA/KCHA and that's a lot of pretty fairly populated land between those three.

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'll be living vicariously in your obs thread. I'm really stoked for you folks that get hit flush. I've said multiple times over the years that I root for you guys and I hope this one closes interstates and paralyzes neighborhoods for a little while. Some may think that's a nasty thing to root for but anyone who knows me...that's how I roll. And I know it's how many of you roll too. Even a fair # of those who deny it. LOL

Mr. Chill, as long as it happens on a weekend, I say shut it ALL down.  Jan 2011 was great for that reason, it happened on a Sunday and so we were all home (for days, heh).  I only get unhappy about it when kids are on buses at 3am because nobody here ever wants to close a school or business on a weekday. :)

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3 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said:

LOL...Just saw that.  GFS really up ticked the main heavy QPF band along with the RGEM.  But NAM cut it big time for some reason.  Personally I would put more weight with the GFS/RGEM.  But I still feel pretty good for 3-4" at least for Dahlonega.

Think it will cross the mountain?

 

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21 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

That warm nose in NE GA concerns me. Isn't that near Lookout's house ?

yep. With each run the models have trended slightly warmer..sometimes just a half a degree. Up until now the temps aloft and just above the surface made me believe snow was likely to overcome any near ground warm layer where i'm at. But with each run this is becoming less likely...to the point now that unless there is some truly heavy precip/strong dynamical cooling processes...accumulations here..even of sleet...seem to be slimmer and slimmer.  To be sure things haven't changed a hell of a lot for most...it's just that i've been right on the line for a while and these tiny changes mean a lot where i'm at. So

that doesn't mean the same applies for areas just north of here...generally along and north of a line from just north of athens to royston to hartwell should be ok...although sleet will probably be an issue. But where i'm at, east of athens, it looks like a no go for the most part....so it looks like i'm going to head to gainesville this afternoon. don't think i could possibly sit here and watch it pour rain while 30 miles away they are getting slammed. 

I have to be back by monday...preferably late sunday afternoon though... i just hope i actually can if it snows that 10 to 12 inches lol. 

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Here are the warmest panels with respect to CLT to RDU on the RGEM and GFS.  Very similar with the 0 deg line, but go with the higher resolution RGEM in terms of the tight packing / gradient in the contours just north of the 0 deg line.  Going to see enhanced precip where that gradient packs (frontogenesis).  This suggests somewhere NW of Charlotte, to Hickory, to Greensboro and Burlington is potentially in the sweet spot in this area.

wujmv7.gif

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2 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

 

Don't count on dynamic cooling to save you until after midnight at the very least. The fast SW winds at the 850 levels are going to kill you until the 850 mb low is far enough for the north winds to cool down the lower levels again. That's not projected on models until possibly even 2 AM.

Oh, I'm certainly not counting on it lol.  But I'll admit, I will be starring out the back door looking for a sleet pellet or flake to mix in hoping for a miracle. 

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Here are the warmest panels with respect to CLT to RDU on the RGEM and GFS.  Very similar with the 0 deg line, but go with the higher resolution RGEM in terms of the tight packing / gradient in the contours just north of the 0 deg line.  Going to see enhanced precip where that gradient packs (frontogenesis).  This suggests somewhere NW of Hickory, to Hickory, to Greensboro and Burlington is potentially in the sweet spot in this area.

wujmv7.gif

 

That pretty much shows exactly what I'm talking about when it comes to the 850 mb low. Those just under it will get enhanced lift because of the colder north/northeast winds and warmer South/Southwest winds colliding.

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Here are the warmest panels with respect to CLT to RDU on the RGEM and GFS.  Very similar with the 0 deg line, but go with the higher resolution RGEM in terms of the tight packing / gradient in the contours just north of the 0 deg line.  Going to see enhanced precip where that gradient packs (frontogenesis).  This suggests somewhere NW of Hickory, to Hickory, to Greensboro and Burlington is potentially in the sweet spot in this area.

wujmv7.gif

Grit, if those are the warmest panels, I'm confused why models (especially short term) are now showing plain rain for a good portion of the storm for CLT and points SE. Overdoing WAA somehow, I hope?

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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

Here are the warmest panels with respect to CLT to RDU on the RGEM and GFS.  Very similar with the 0 deg line, but go with the higher resolution RGEM in terms of the tight packing / gradient in the contours just north of the 0 deg line.  Going to see enhanced precip where that gradient packs (frontogenesis).  This suggests somewhere NW of Hickory, to Hickory, to Greensboro and Burlington is potentially in the sweet spot in this area.

wujmv7.gif

Grit, do you have links to any FGEN products? Lost my links for those.

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1 minute ago, SnowDeac said:

Grit, if those are the warmest panels, I'm confused why models (especially short term) are now showing plain rain for a good portion of the storm for CLT and points SE. Overdoing WAA somehow, I hope?

Was going to ask the same thing. Just looking at those maps, that doesn't look as terrible from CLT to RDU as the P-type maps. Maybe the modeled warm nose is stronger at a slightly lower or higher level than 850mb?

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When we get in this super short range I like to track the HRRR model for potential shifts.  It runs every hour and the latest 14z run has the heavy precip band further north for sure across GA.  I don't really like it for P-Type stuff so this look all I'm interested in is the potential radar presentation.

 

hrrr_2017010614_ref_georgia.gif

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