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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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5 minutes ago, SnowDeac said:

This seems scarily close to a Feb 2015 redux for the CLT metro. That under-performed badly for everyone, and the southern parts of the metro were left with a slushy/sleety inch or two.

Very concerning to see the short term models increasing 850s during the storm, while the globals have been crashing temps for many runs in a row.

Seems global models can't pick up on the 850mb low that passes to the west of Charlotte and the SW winds begin to pick up in the 850s levels. The 850mb low placement will pretty much tell the story for most areas on the edge. You'd rather be to the North, East or under the 850mb low as it passes so the warmer WSW winds can't screw you.

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Yep, calc I like this setup for your area.  Should be a good looking radar once it gets cranking tonight.  I don't see a lee side drying scenario for this one...we'll see.  I still like a more conservative 3-6 down this way in CLT area as there could very well be some sleet mixing.  Also, I still view this as more of a 'moderate' level storm in central NC.  It's a good one, but we don't have a closing off and strengthening low at 700mb where the flow gets backed strongly to the NW (similar thoughts at 850mb).  Here are the warmest RGEM panels with respect to Charlotte to Raleigh

33jjyif.gif&key=3bf4ac47a38b4313f93d825baa46aae7a8c0c9f851319ea5374621eb594d2254



Thanks for talking me off the ledge, Grit. Great analysis, as always.

Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk

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7 minutes ago, philconnors said:

Couple of things. Not buying the ice solution. Goes against climo. Calera is BMX which is 45 mins south. I think N and NW/NE sections of BHM are going to be fine. We are on the NW side of the SLP and we have an arctic frontal boundary with 20-25:1 ratios over N. AL. How do we get ZR?

Thanks!!  Kinda what I thought...I know living in the extreme NE part of Jefferson County, it helps me out a lot...I'm straddling the Jefferson/St. Clair County line...I work in Helena, but live in Trussville and usually and I can watch the temp drop in the car on the way home sometimes 3-4 degrees in just that short ride...In the Winter months of course 

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4 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

Seems global models can't pick up on the 850mb low that passes to the west of Charlotte and the SW winds begin to pick up in the 850s levels. The 850mb low placement will pretty much tell the story for most areas on the edge. You'd rather be to the North, East or under the 850mb low as it passes so the warmer WSW winds can't screw you.

Wouldn't we want the 850 low pass to our south and east to avoid WSW winds?

 

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8 minutes ago, philconnors said:

Couple of things. Not buying the ice solution. Goes against climo. Calera is BMX which is 45 mins south. I think N and NW/NE sections of BHM are going to be fine. We are on the NW side of the SLP and we have an arctic frontal boundary with 20-25:1 ratios over N. AL. How do we get ZR?

Because there's a layer 1 mile deep above the surface that's 2-3 C. That's how.

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8 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

RDU is in the mix on the RGEM.  I was hoping that the snow line would correct a little more SE on this hi-res runs this morning.  The nam did somewhat, the RGEM went the other way for the Triangle.

snku_acc.us_ma.png

Well that's just flat out depressing.  We might just get totally blanked in Wake County.   Is there any chance that this could actually move south or is it just going to keep moving  NW?   I can't remember the last time NW SC  got more snow than Wake County.  Congrats to the Triad and Charlotte though!

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1 minute ago, Amos83 said:

Wouldn't we want the 850 low pass to our south and east to avoid WSW winds?

 

Small typo. Meant to say to the Charlotte would want to be to the north or west of the 850 mb low so yes, you'd rather the 850 mb low pass to your south and east. Being under it is fine as well...in fact, that's where you'll likely get some of the best lift.

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16 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Whoever is right on that line of sleet/snow is going to really cash in. I was a bit worried about this, seems CLT can never avoid mixing issues. 

Once again I-85 could end up as the snow/mix line.  I love living dangerously!  

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1 minute ago, Wow said:

Once again I-85 could end up as the snow/mix line.  I love living dangerously!  

Worm has gotta turn at some point. FWIW Hi-Res NAM is giving most of Mecklenburg county a lot of ZR and sleet. Totally blanks on snow.....but it also looks suspect even at 2m temps to me. 

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3 minutes ago, snowinnc said:

Well that's just flat out depressing.  We might just get totally blanked in Wake County.   Is there any chance that this could actually move south or is it just going to keep moving  NW?   I can't remember the last time NW SC  got more snow than Wake County.  Congrats to the Triad and Charlotte though!

Well here is the meteo for Raleigh, just NW it may be all snow and just SE may be all sleet.  I feel like if you bisect Wake Co, the NW half will be mostly snow and the SE will be 50/50 mix.  Well atleast I hope I am 50/50 sleet.  Verbatim this is showing 4-6" of snow/sleet.  Pretty much a Jan 96 or 10 gradient.  We don't have HP in the perfect spot, which is what we need for all snow.

Screen Shot 2017-01-06 at 10.25.24 AM.png

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