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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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6 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Well unless the 12Z suite comes in really colder, 1-4" (which has been my official call all along on FB) is good for ATL. More way up in far northern burbs. Too bad the GFS got my hopes up occasionally but this is actually (with a couple of notable exceptions) that way it usually plays out here. The key is the dynamic cooling at changeover and rates for just a few hours- could come down pretty heavt just before ending. Congrats the mountains and CLT-RDU-ORF. I may just head up to about Ball Ground a little later today to get in the butter zone.

Trying due north up 400 in Dahlonega.  Get a little elevation under your belt and hang out on the square eating Pizza.  LOL.

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29 minutes ago, msuwx said:

Always a concern. Hopefully the positive tilt orientation to this thing will fight that impact off.

I will also say that I am issuing a 'radar hallucination freak-out watch' for this system. With the orientation of this thing and the way precip should blossom this evening, there will be screams of this missing people to the south by late today.

1

:lmao: Would love to see the AFD for that one! I'll be watching the meltdown for the first time and not have to worry about meltingdown myself. 

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5 minutes ago, RaleighWx said:

Hey Guys my final call for those interested.

 

Thanks Allan! Your maps are the ones I share most with people in these events - enjoy the weather.

Great/exciting thread all around getting to track something like this that doesn't happen all too often in the southeast - shout out to everyone for posting helpful/interesting comments and mods who keep things running smoothly!

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Just now, magpiemaniac said:

Perhaps the mets at WRAL should looks at model estimates for areas outside the Triangle. They're prognosticating from their echo chamber. They need to shift that map to the northwest and increase their totals slightly.

I'm still not sold on the whole NW shift thing yet.  I still think Raleigh sees a lot more snow than WS

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24 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

I expect to see some mixing down east in North Carolina. I am a long way east (western edge of the coastal plain) but I wonder if the mixing will make it this far north. Will be interesting to watch and I'll report, if I can.

Even if there is some mixing, and I think there could be, you will still get a big storm. I'd rather be on the snow/mixing borderline where you know QPFs won't be a problem than on the northern fringe where temps are fine but moisture could be severely limited.

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Sucky JB as some have said, Says It's goona crank Raleigh on NE from there foot in lot of places. He likes the NAM packages. He's said for days that models would correct west and it appears they are doing that!! No? I'm not saying He's going to be right, but models seem to be falling in line with his thinking right now, that could change as we all very well know................

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1 hour ago, msuwx said:

Always a concern. Hopefully the positive tilt orientation to this thing will fight that impact off.

I will also say that I am issuing a 'radar hallucination freak-out watch' for this system. With the orientation of this thing and the way precip should blossom this evening, there will be screams of this missing people to the south by late today.

Great to see you and NWS agree that CLT is in for at least 6+! I'm definitely a member of the radar freakout committee.  Radar always seems to underperform for these storms.  

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51 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Well unless the 12Z suite comes in really colder, 1-4" (which has been my official call all along on FB) is good for ATL. More way up in far northern burbs. Too bad the GFS got my hopes up occasionally but this is actually (with a couple of notable exceptions) that way it usually plays out here. The key is the dynamic cooling at changeover and rates for just a few hours- could come down pretty heavy just before ending. Congrats the mountains and CLT-RDU-ORF. I may just head up to about Ball Ground a little later today to get in the butter zone.

May I ask if you have a "pro FB site" or is it the personal one, since I don't know your ID lol, good job btw!

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This is a toughie folks when it comes to the Triangle and the northeast Piedmont.  Some real differences between the latest NAM and last GFS.  NAM has center of precip axis well into Virginia.

What to believe... 

I am afraid our science and technology has given us all it can for the moment.

A real challenge for you Mets out there.  Suspect you have to use the ole trick-knee/gut-feel to parse out this last bit.  B)

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