Timothy Clyde Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Pretty good totals expected here in Danville surprised Boone NC may see more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutZero Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: +1 on that statement. What am I? Chopped liver?? Hehe, TDP is former, long-time met here at FFC so maybe we can take some credit for her. Anyway, she's written some of the best discussions I've ever read, including this morning's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Very latest rpm on wyff shows a little precip by 12pm heavy snow burst by 2 pm! Good stuff by 6pm! Looks like all snow after 2pm! Please be right!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 That was a great discussion from GSP. Love the enthusiasm. RAH has shifted the highest axis of accumulations NW, now stretching from the Triad northeastward. They have upped the totals to 8" here. Here are the latest clowns from the GFS/NAM using the kuchera method: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Very latest rpm on wyff shows a little precip by 12a heavy snowburdt by 2 pm! Good stuff by 6pm! Looks like all snow after 2pm! Please be right!!! Turning over to snow that early is a very good sign. I don't think GSP to CLT has to worry much about mixing, but I'm always overly optimistic. My bigger worry would be expecting big totals. Gotta keep an eye on thunderstorms flaring up in the panhandle of Florida and robbing some of the moisture. Hopefully though everyone gets 8 inches or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The 6z nam was not as amped. RDU looks much better. It's tough being on the mix line. Go big, or go home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, burgertime said: Turning over to snow that early is a very good sign. I don't think GSP to CLT has to worry much about mixing, but I'm always overly optimistic. My bigger worry would be expecting big totals. Gotta keep an eye on thunderstorms flaring up in the panhandle of Florida and robbing some of the moisture. Hopefully though everyone gets 8 inches or more Yeah, was very surprised at this, as its 38 right now! Very light stuff at noon! Then at 2, very heavy blob with dark green and yellows South to Greenwood, but a heavy snow return over most of Greenville Spartanburg conties, then nothing till about 6pm, but keeps it as snow by 6, without starting as rain/mix, like yesterday! Don't know the accuracy of these " in house" models!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, was very surprised at this, as its 38 right now! Very light stuff at noon! Then at 2, very heavy blob with dark green and yellows South to Greenwood, but a heavy snow return over most of Greenville Spartanburg conties, then nothing till about 6pm, but keeps it as snow by 6, without starting as rain/mix, like yesterday! Don't know the accuracy of these " in house" models!? You have a 100% chance of wait and see. Gonna be a constant looking out the window and radar for hours to see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, packfan98 said: The 6z nam was not as amped. RDU looks much better. It's tough being on the mix line. Go big, or go home! It's now cast time! Really, remember a lot off storms and people looking at big global models with the event 6-12 hours away, and most say don't bother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 One of the best AFD's I have ever read from GSP this morning. Agreed. That was a fantastic. A real treat to read and see the excitement and personality come out.Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, burgertime said: You have a 100% chance of wait and see. Gonna be a constant looking out the window and radar for hours to see what happens Yeah, definitely a low productivity day at work! Looks like heavy snow really cranks between 7-8pm tonight! The mix line is very thin and all the way South of Lauren's county, and light snow in CLT by 7:30ish! Will be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwp1023 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Jim Cantore is in Raleigh for the storm. Could be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6Z GFS QPF up to 1.1" for CLT. SREF might not totally be in left field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, mwp1023 said: Jim Cantore is in Raleigh for the storm. Could be a good sign. Yep, see that now! RAH is screwed now! Y'all remember the DC event he went to a few years back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 36 minutes ago, AbsolutZero said: What am I? Chopped liver?? Hehe, TDP is former, long-time met here at FFC so maybe we can take some credit for her. Anyway, she's written some of the best discussions I've ever read, including this morning's. Not at all. I just do not live in that forecast area. We do thank you for stopping by this evening!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, westmc9th said: GFS better in the western areas of NC as well? Yes. Noticeable NW jog in heavier precip axis. And LP moved NW as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 o6 GFS 00gfs 06GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 State of emergency for 78 counties in GA, in effect at Noon today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: 6Z GFS QPF up to 1.1" for CLT. SREF might not totally be in left field. 6z GEFS looks to be match the op as well for your area. Overall, a noticeable increase in precip, especially on the NW edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: o6 GFS 00gfs 06GFS Mark have you seen the nws graphics yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Euro, GFS, and GEFS all look great. GFS still not budging. Even the NAM is a little better. Heck, 5 inches of snow and some sleet would still be a big storm for us. Sometimes you have to walk that line to get the big snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, oconeexman said: Mark have you seen the nws graphics yet? Sure have. I really like the setup everyone is using now... Fingers crossed here as this rabbit hole is nothing new round these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Euro, GFS, and GEFS all look great. GFS still not budging. Even the NAM is a little better. Heck, 5 inches of snow and some sleet would still be a big storm for us. Sometimes you have to walk that line to get the big snow. You're at the top of the county and I'm in Willow Springs at the bottom of the county. It will be interesting to see the gradient between us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Well here east of 95 I've watched this one melt away. The gfs and it's ensembles have been rock steady and crushing us for the last 2 to 3 days. If it's been this wrong then I'll never trust it again. Mhx did up our accumulations in the latest 430am winter storm warning from 2-5 back up to 3-6 though so now I'm just gonna sit back and wait for the bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 From Matthew East: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Here's the latest slideshow briefing from NWS Raleigh. These are really informative. Says that snow could start as early as 2-3 pm in the Triad. I'm a little concerned that school systems should dismiss 2 hours early to get everyone home before 4-5 pm. Morning briefing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 17 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Here's the latest slideshow briefing from NWS Raleigh. These are really informative. Says that snow could start as early as 2-3 pm in the Triad. I'm a little concerned that school systems should dismiss 2 hours early to get everyone home before 4-5 pm. Morning briefing Shows some inconsistency between rah and mhx. The orange zone rah has in their briefing is part of mhx northwestern zones. Mhx has me at 3 to 6 while raleigh has me as rain going to mix with a couple inches later saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 33 minutes ago, packfan98 said: From Matthew East: Seems a lot of mets are putting more weight on the GFS. Fishel seems to be going with the NAM. Guses we'll see which one plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Seems a lot of mets are putting more weight on the GFS. Fishel seems to be going with the NAM. Guses we'll see which one plays out. What did he say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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