BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, NC_hailstorm said: Ukie is right on the SC coast at 36,just a hair west of 12z off Charleston. Thanks Man, I always appreciate your input. Always good analysis!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 UK continues the theme of slightly deeper low and a tick NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said: Is there anyone who can tell me where they think the likely area(s) may receive Thundersnow? Or is it too early to know? Stupid question, but I couldn't resist... Thank you in advance... South-East Virginia into North-East North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The ukmet/nam are normally on the NW side of guidance in these setups. Generally the GFS is on the SE side. I'm assuming the EURO will come in tonight and split the middle like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM picking up on an area of intense convection Saturday morning and dynamically cooling the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said: 0z GFS came in very much to my liking I posted earlier this evening before it came out. Believe there will be three main swaths of a Trace to 2"...with potential screw jobs for some. This is the equivalent of a very light passing shower with lots of precip not hitting the ground combined with the main development developing east-south-east of these locals. Some of these areas will not see any snow fall at all if you are not awake extremely early Saturday morning. *The screw job potential is based on dry air, convection disrupting moisture flow, unfavorable development/movement of precipitation, and other local micro issues around MTNS. So there a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I see that, it would suck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just saw that the euro is also a high res model. Knew the nam was run on 4k and 12k, but didn't know gfs is on like a 28k while euro is run on 9k. Is this correct? Also has anyone been paying attn to para gfs today. Want to see how it verifies. And man ukmet is rock solid gold imo. Consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said: South-East Virginia into North-East North Carolina. Someone is going to get crushed based on that radar simulution. You can see the yellow banding feeding into the colder air producing heavy localized snow banding. Kind of reminds me of what hapened with DC last year during their blizzard. A very deep pocket of moisture kept feeding the area with rates of 3+ inches per hour. Would not be surpised to see some locations possibly get 15 inches from this storm in VA . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Anybody have a quick update on how the cold air is rushing in currently? Is it ahead of schedule or lagging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Lookout said: that actually might be one of the more mind boggling comments i've seen here in a long time...well right behind the person you were responding too LOL...yeah, I guess so...Should be fun to verify. I'd think about 1" of sleet and .75" of snow for Fayetteville, GA is a realistic expectation here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avalanche Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 What a IP job depicted in central NC on the Nam!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: The ukmet/nam are normally on the NW side of guidance in these setups. Generally the GFS is on the SE side. I'm assuming the EURO will come in tonight and split the middle like usual. The UK in every run has been more SW to NE oriented with the trough/thermals/precip, whereas the GFS and Euro have been more WSW to ENE oriented. This would be around .9 liquid in CLT on the UKMet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 That warm nose creeping into n/e GA is going to be something serious. Count on it. Never fails. That's climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sakau2007 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mckinnonwg said: Anybody have a quick update on how the cold air is rushing in currently? Is it ahead of schedule or lagging? im at 38. about on schedule i think here in alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Ukie still pushing precip NW .40 to .50 in the western mountains of NC .60 all the way into the foothills of NC now .80 north of I 85 by a little 1.00 closing in on GSP/CLT/RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, sakau2007 said: im at 38. about on schedule i think here in alabama. 35.6 in far eastern walker county barometer is 29.75 still the cold high pressure air moving in ahead of the moisture right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, NC_hailstorm said: Ukie still pushing precip NW .40 to .50 in the western mountains of NC .60 all the way into the foothills of NC now .80 north of I 85 by a little 1.00 closing in on GSP/CLT/RDU I hope it's right, It's been solid all week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mckinnonwg said: Anybody have a quick update on how the cold air is rushing in currently? Is it ahead of schedule or lagging? 1 minute ago, mckinnonwg said: Anybody have a quick update on how the cold air is rushing in currently? Is it ahead of schedule or lagging? It seems to be behind schedule around GSP and another issue is precip coming in earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Great looks for RDU from our friends in the UK and Germany: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutZero Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 35 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Their forecast is not out of line at all given the GFS forecast- 3-5" seems very doable in this case. This is coming from someone that is often very critical of their forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Wow, carywx just laid out down the royal flush... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 UKMet really cuts it close with 850mb temps for CLT to RDU airports. Looks better from southern foothills to Winston for temp/precip combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benholio Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: I can't remember seeing such a streak of run-to-run and ensemble consistency as the GFS has laid down for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: UKMet really cuts it close with 850mb temps for CLT to RDU airports. Looks better from southern foothills to Winston for temp/precip combo I'm trying to find this. Is it 850 or skinny warm nose. Inside even over charleston track is cutting it close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Wow, carywx just laid out down the royal flush... Not me but yes--Full of WIN in all 20 panels.--even those 'narrow' runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: UKMet really cuts it close with 850mb temps for CLT to RDU airports. Looks better from southern foothills to Winston for temp/precip combo Pushing all in with the RGEM/Euro combo. Just re-reading some of the past winter storms where we went through this. As much as I wish the GFS/GEFS was correct it was never the model that got temp profiles correct. The RGEM/Euro did fairly well at this range (inside 36) and the NAM was always to warm (knock on wood). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan9451 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Is there anyway that holds up for central Alabama? That'd be crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I never like to see a SLP come inside of charleston, my benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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