NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Which is it? Hes comparing the gfs run 0z to gfs 18z run. Not to other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, NCSNOW said: Hrs comparing the gfs run 0z to gfs 18z run. Not to other models Ok, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 There's more precip across E GA thru NC/SC on this run, temps overall look similar, nice looking storm, but not amped and warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 30 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Lord have mercy, I'm gonna have a heart attack looking at this!!! Rgem is suppose to be good with thermal profiles right??? BOOM!!!! 18z Image on bottom for comparison... Burrell, I'd love to hear your thoughts on the warm nose and resulting snow minimum over the NW upstate that has been showing on just about every model. We have certainly been victimized by it before. Are you concerned about that? If not for that, we could be looking a really nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 New 00z GFS shows snow burst for ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Surface low placement at hr 30 on the 00z GFS is 100 mi west of Tampa, FL. At the same time on the 00z RGEM, it is located on top of Jacksonville, FL. Huge difference there.Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 South eastern VA is going great. http://i.imgur.com/Cjup87S.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Precip is a bit more expansive in NW NC near the foothills compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Atl got crushed on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 gfs and rgem are prettymuch identical. rdu is jackpot zone. not a bad spot 24hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The GFS gives ATL one of its biggest snow storms ever. 8" and counting by 33 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersNotComing Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I think its time for CAE to tap out. It was fun while it lasted... Hope to see a little more moisture once the cold air reaches us but that's not looking to be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, shahroz98 said: New 00z GFS shows snow burst for ATL Per the GFS most of that QPF would not be snow but probably sleet. 850s don't crash below zero until 10-11pm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, LithiaWx said: Atl got crushed on the gfs 7 to 9 inches, trying not to get my hopes to high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Cheeznado said: The GFS gives ATL one of its biggest snow storms ever. 8" and counting by 33 hours. GFS shows what happens when the 850s are cold enough throughout most of the event...sadly it's kind of on an island right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 So, the 0z GFS gives Clarke County in southeastern Mississippi a smooth 9 inches. If that somehow verified, they'll be talking about it for hundreds of years .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, MotoWeatherman said: Per the GFS most of that QPF would not be snow but probably sleet. 850s don't crash below zero until 10-11pm or so. Could dynamic cooling play into any of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Yeah, GFS totals were a tick lower for the Triangle but precip is more expansive into the west, including in GA and AL, which get crushed in that narrow little stripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The GFS is a good run for many on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mckinnonwg said: Could dynamic cooling play into any of this? The Weatherbell maps count anything frozen/freezing as snow on the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Burrell, I'd love to hear your thoughts on the warm nose and resulting snow minimum over the NW upstate that has been showing on just about every model. We have certainly been victimized by it before. Are you concerned about that? If not for that, we could be looking a really nice event. I think it's a very good sign that the rgem is basically whipping out that low level warm bubble with no trouble. It looks like the hi-res Nam is making quick work of it as well. I think when heavy rates arrive friday night the warm area will be quickly overcome and only cost us maybe an inch of accumulation at most. It also helps that -850's are going to be in the -3 to -4 range for us(if modeled correctly). The key will be watching 925mb temps tomorrow afternoon on mesonalaysis. Also, the models seem to have the calm winds and thus warm surface air located a little to our west at the onset friday night. The worst spot for the warm bubble appears to be from about commerce, GA to right over Lookout's house. But if the rates are going to be as heavy as the rgem depicts, I think they will cash in too as long as they can stay below freezing at 850mb. To be honest I am more worried about the 800 to 850mb layers creeping up above zero on us. It always seems like warm advection in these layers goes 10 to 20 miles farther north than models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mckinnonwg said: Could dynamic cooling play into any of this? I know FFC mentioned it in their earlier discussion. I hope they are preparing an update. I really would like to hear what their thoughts are now. Still, that's a lot of sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishbfm Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RDU still in the GFS good graces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sakau2007 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, beanskip said: So, the 0z GFS gives Clarke County in southeastern Mississippi a smooth 9 inches. If that somehow verified, they'll be talking about it for hundreds of years .... probably overdone, and what does fall there will likely be mostly ice pellets/frz rain/mix. could still be a nasty ice storm deep into MS/AL though. I really think there will be a band where precip is deep enough and temps are cold enough where there is a big ice pellet or freezing rain event through MS/AL. Places like Laurel/Meridian, MS, Selma/Montgomery/Clanton, AL seem like they may have enough QPF and cold air to have a heck of an ice storm, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: gfs and rgem are prettymuch identical. rdu is jackpot zone. not a bad spot 24hrs out. RGEM low is 5-6 mb deeper and thus more QPF. Also, just as cold give or take as the GFS, though maybe a hair NW of GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, sakau2007 said: probably overdone, and what does fall there will likely be mostly ice pellets/frz rain/mix. could still be a nasty ice storm deep into MS/AL though. I really think there will be a band where precip is deep enough and temps are cold enough where there is a big ice pellet or freezing rain event through MS/AL. Places like Laurel/Meridian, MS, Selma/Montgomery/Clanton, AL seem like they may have enough QPF and cold air to have a heck of an ice storm, no? Yeah, operative word was "somehow." Still, won't take much to wreak havoc. I was in Destin for the ice storm there that closed every bridge -- not fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I couldn't find the comment asking abt Birmingham. BMX shows abt 1 inch on the GFS sadly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, WintersNotComing said: I think its time for CAE to tap out. It was fun while it lasted... Hope to see a little more moisture once the cold air reaches us but that's not looking to be the case. It depends on what part of Richland county you're in. I could see Irmo and Pontiac doing fairly well but down by the end of 77 seeing virtually nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Can I ask a serious question here? If winds are expected to be out of the NW/NNW for most of the duration of this storm for Atlanta, shouldn't that help or favor more colder 850mb temps filtering in throughout the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Heres the latest run on the GFS when i comes to totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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