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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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Here is my view on the NAM. Could its overamped solution be correct? Sure. But the NAM and the SREF members all use the NCEP WRF ARW or NMM core. Thus they in essence have alot of similarities in physics schemes, parameterizations. Thus it isnt surprising to see them all showing a similar solution.

For me to start really buying it, I would like to see the RGEM another mesoscale model show the same type of scenario. That would be a different model core showing it and that would be important. Also the globals, although the globals with a bit more coarse resolution can miss the warm nose strength, while the mesoscale models capture it better with their higher resolution.

Taken literally the NAM would be quite the snow gradient across Wake County and the Triangle in general.

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1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said:

what you are forgetting is that the 18Z OP GFS stopped its NW trend and held firm. OP and Para have been step and step together so at 18z the para very very likely quit its NW trend

Negative. The LP on the 18Z GFS moved 50-75 miles NW of the position on the 12Z GFS 

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Yeah NAM is literally 1...maybe 2 degrees away from greatness for Atlanta. It's just the 850s that are the problem. The mid levels look fine to me. Don't see any problems with the 500-800mb layer. 925 layer looks fine as well. I've been on the wrong side of a rain/snow or snow/sleet storm many times though so we'll see...

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Just now, LovingGulfLows said:

Yeah NAM is literally 1...maybe 2 degrees away from greatness for Atlanta. It's just the 850s that are the problem. The mid levels look fine to me. Don't see any problems with the 500-800mb layer. 925 layer looks fine as well. I've been on the wrong side of a rain/snow or rain/sleet storm many times though so we'll see...

The NAM has it raining there til 02z, but I don't buy it based on the sounding.  It looks like PL or even FZRA to me.

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Regarding the NW trend - experience has taught me that when you see a large trend over time to the NW, there is often a slight adjustment back to the south at the end.  Hang in there is you're near the southern edge.  I think there will be some adjustment back to the south at some point.

TW

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6 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

If the NAM winds up being close to accurate, we will definitely have to start taking the ole DWD Icon model serious. It's been showing this solution for several days now.

I did some reading up on the ICON...  "The predecessor of ICON was named GME"...  

Here is a link to the website... https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/01_num_weather_prediction_modells/icon_description.html

It does seem to have been the model with the least amount of change the past several runs...  Where is the best site to see maps?  are they free?

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1 minute ago, tarheelwx said:

Regarding the NW trend - experience has taught me that when you see a large trend over time to the NW, there is often a slight adjustment back to the south at the end.  Hang in there is you're near the southern edge.  I think there will be some adjustment back to the south at some point.

TW

Yup, the big trend north late usually has a small trend back to normal.

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23 minutes ago, SteveVa said:

NAM might just be NAM-ing me and now I'm on the southern fringe of high totals. Not complaining because it still has SE VA at 8-12". If GFS or Euro follow along tonight to a warmer solution for MBY I'll start sweating. NWS Wakefield is still not issuing wsw's even though we are around 24 hrs from the onset of precip.

Hopefully my post won't be deleted again, I know it's a busy time however idk what rule did I break

 

We might be "around 24 hours from onset" but we're not within 24 hours yet. It'll happen bright and early in morning I assume.

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7 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

Yeah NAM is literally 1...maybe 2 degrees away from greatness for Atlanta. It's just the 850s that are the problem. The mid levels look fine to me. Don't see any problems with the 500-800mb layer. 925 layer looks fine as well. I've been on the wrong side of a rain/snow or snow/sleet storm many times though so we'll see...

It's interesting to see how the rain/snow line sets up in the Atlanta area......it always seems to cut the city roughly in half east/west or along I-85.  Seen it too many times to count.  If the NAM does come to fruition and temps are slightly too warm, it could really cut down on things down in your neck of the woods.  Amazing how just about every single setup around here yield the same possibilities.

- Buck

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DT, Panovich, Allan, Robert, and a few other Mets i follow have RDU in the jackpot zone or close to it. They know their stuff so i think we're all just overreacting a little due to past experiences..  too much has to go wrong for us to bust because the set up couldn't be more ripe for us to score big IMHO.

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1 minute ago, audioguy3107 said:

It's interesting to see how the rain/snow line sets up in the Atlanta area......it always seems to cut the city roughly in half east/west or along I-85.  Seen it too many times to count.  If the NAM does come to fruition and temps are slightly too warm, it could really cut down on things down in your neck of the woods.  Amazing how just about every single setup around here yield the same possibilities.

- Buck

Reminds me of Feb 25 2015 When the Cutoff was I-85. Points north got nice snow, just south got flurries :( 

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25 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said:

Where the NAM goes wrong..is further out in time it explodes Asheville mountain area with fantasy precip and shoves it north-west. Out to 26 looks right with little to nothing south-central VA, north-west NC, north-west GA, while the main areas pile up.

Precip progression is key and the main areas see it first. Makes me doubt further out in time.

nam3km_asnow_seus_27.png

gfsp_asnow_eus_fh72_trend.gif

Can someone please explain to me what the heck the NAM is seeing here in South Ms? Why is it showing so much snow accumulation? Is it seeing an increase in ice accumulations or what?

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