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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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4 minutes ago, sakau2007 said:

Is the cold air getting here sooner than forecasted? Nashville is already at 29, Florence, AL (NW corner of the state) is at 34 and Cullman, AL (about 50 miles north of Birmingham) is down to 38. Birmingham is sitting at 47 but the subfreezing temps look like they will invade northern Alabama fairly soon?

 

Also some light blue returns showing up on radar over northern AL though I don't think there is any ground truth.

Yeah, I heard they are getting reports.  T

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29 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see some really amped runs of the HRRR and RAP which are warm and put the bullseye in the mountains in the closing hours before the storm.  These models tend to be really amped in theIr "long" range, so I wouldn't worry about it, though.

I'm using the RAP to verify the initializations of the regional and global models.

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6 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:


Yes, but the precip shield did not reflect it. I would imagine future runs, if low is in similar location, will show a more expansive precip shield to the NW


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That is my thinking it maybe better back to the west just wait till next run 

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1 hour ago, Wow said:

Some good news on the ICON is it moved heavier precip back NW, although you can see some lee side minimums show up

 

 

As a member of the LEE side crew.. This is a constant battle. 

5 minutes ago, HKY1894 said:

Can you link the map you're looking at? I don't know where to find a 500mb map showing current conditions 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19

Use the top tab to toggle 

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2 hours ago, DopplerWx said:

goodness, gefs is a thing of beauty. 

FL4cc7i.jpg

Ift he GFS is wrong it is epically wrong, thats just insane agreement...has anyone ever seen a panel like that before for NC......E15 needs to be the correct one....sticking to my 6-12" call for MBY....if we get mixing issues then "only" 6" if we keep that mixing at bay then closer to 12"...

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4 minutes ago, ncstatered21 said:

Is anyone noticing temperatures tonight in the RDU area? Temperatures looking lower than forecasted from earlier today. This can only help tomorrow. No?


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Wont really matter that much the cold tomorrow is from a different source, it will help though by cooling surfaces etc.....but it wont make or break anything with the main event Sat.....

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1 minute ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Who wants to take the lead on the NAM pbp?

Go for it, FTC.  Proper warm-up approach is to say west warm west warm west warm west warm 50 times!

This cycle really should see the NAM get in line or other models start to cave.  I would expect only minor adjustments to the shortwave track and speed after the 0Zs come in.

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3 minutes ago, sarcean said:

what is the realistic expectation of GSO? Can I safely count on over 6" at this point?

I wouldn't count on it yet...but maybe 3-6"...unless we see a further NW trend,. The 9" mean on the latest SREF has me thinking maybe a big dog is in the cards, though.  The SREF is usually pretty good at this range, so maybe 6"+ is more likely than I think.

2 minutes ago, TiltedStorm said:

sref link?

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

You can select any airport from that link.

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