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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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8 minutes ago, RobertRath said:

Trying to learn here... what's causing the lack of moisture back into Northern AL? 

Basically the surface low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico does not form and start drawing moisture up from the gulf onto the continental land mass until it is well east of you. That is at least part of it, and the gist of it. Mets can explain in more detail.

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16 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

On satellite you can see the SW already tilting. Really beautiful. Models keep trying to slow it down, but it's not working in reality.   

 

You sure? Just did a comparison of 500 mb analysis at 12z today and compared with a latest 0z run GFS. The GFS seem to have the SW slightly less positively tilted than the actual surface analysis of the SW at 12z.

 

fax500.gif

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_3.png

 

Maybe I'm not reading it right....hmmm. 

 

EDIT: Also heights seem to be slightly higher in the East than the latest 0z GFS run. Indicates that the storm is likely to be more north of that particular run.

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11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Anybody see the dreaded warm nose, near GSP? Would we sleet for awhile? I'm worried about ground temps too! Sitting at 47, with thick cloud cover! Only supposed T to get to 39 tonight!

Yes, I expect more mixing here (IMO, this is somehwhat similar to the winter storm 1-2 years prior where I-85 was dividing line between more sleet/rain)

I'm not native to the Upstate - never seen so much sleet in my life

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7 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Basically the surface low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico does not form and start drawing moisture up from the gulf onto the continental land mass until it is well east of you. That is at least part of it, and the gist of it. Mets can explain in more detail.

Area "3" is what we call a dry slot. See Bluestein (1993) for more information. 

 

comma.JPG

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Just now, drfranklin said:

Yes, I expect more mixing here (IMO, this is very similar to the winter storm 1-2 years prior where I-85 was dividing line between more sleet/rain)

I'm not native to the Upstate - never seen so much sleet in my life

Agreed! I think 1-3" is a good call for GSP metro! When local Mets and GSP, are going 3-6", I would be very leery!

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1 minute ago, oconeexman said:

Should we start a "bust" "screw zone" thread? I guarantee there will be some folks sitting in bulls eye that get hosed somewhere. No bulls eye here in NW SC be lucky to get our 1-3".

Something will go wrong. It always does whether it be a warm nose, lack of qpf due to convection at the gulf coast, ground temp issues, etc. 

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