SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 That hard cutoff line SW to NE around CLT is killing me. I've never seen a storm like this before with such a gradient at that location. Miller A with a good track. Piedmont has to cash in it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, RevDodd said: Low is just a tad weaker, perhaps? Enough to make a difference? high adjusted for the increase in pressure, but it's consolidating closer to the coast. This was about a 20-30mil NW shift. Maybe a compromise between NAM and GFS. All the mesoscale models have a more north solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, bargainmusic said: I like the 12z a lot better. Yeah unfortunately what's better for RDU is worse for you and vice versa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Lookout said: tell me about it. it's been maddening for me too because of temps. If you are in the atlanta/athens/gainesville triangle consider yourself lucky. Lets just hope that the models are underestimating the temps at this point....such a waist of QPF.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: And the GFS isn't? You might say the Ukie is close, but it appears nearly every major model is close to being on an island right now. Euro, NAM and GFS, all differ. Euro, GFS, Para NAM, RGEM, SREF, and BUFFKITS all have a big storm. NAM is a lot less impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 So how many runs in a row has the GFS looked basically the same? 10? So now do we finally believe it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, sarcean said: I don't know why RAH is posting this but this is the MOST snow you can receive from this system. Statistically, this solution is unlikely. This is RAH's 95th snow total percentile. Below is HPC's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: Liquid Equiv amounts....razor tight I've never seen such a thing. Somebody tell the guy down in the gulf to turn the hose on "shower" instead of "jet" so we can all get in the game... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said: The tight swath is the only thing that concerns. It definitely appears the GFS lightened the load for metro Atlanta, but if you cut a bit of that off, it somewhat matches the others. I think it is safe at this point we aren't going to see a total collapse, but the models are having a hard time picking up on totals. Yeah the entire storm has a tight cut off when it comes to snowfall totals. You can see the obvious snow axis that runs SW to NE through the cities of Atlanta - Athens - Charlotte - Raleigh when you look at the 18z snowmap. It's so tight....any shifts north or south will screw a lot people. I posted about this "Golden Axis" a couple of days ago. The Axis is tight in Alabama and GA, then slowly expands moving through SC and NC so they have more margin for correction than folks in GA does to get in on this Axis of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 This from Elizabeth Gardner at WRAL. (Raleigh) "There are some indications that temperatures will be warmer as precipitation begins tomorrow. It may begin from Raleigh south as light rain and then transition to a snow/sleet mix before changing over to all snow by Saturday morning. If it does warm that means that snowfall amounts south and east may be lighter than we showed you this morning. Expect more adjustments between now and mid-day tomorrow as the storm system develops." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, farleydawg79 said: Lets just hope that the models are underestimating the temps at this point....such a waist of QPF.. At least you have QPF, im getting fringed with it to my south. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Raleigh is showing a 56% chance of 6+ inches, 40% chance of 8+ inches, and 15% chance of over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looks promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Anybody else in the Rutherford, Morganton, Hickory, Wilkesboro area worried about the lee side dry slot? It sure seems to be showing up on map after map, no matter the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Anybody else in the Rutherford, Morganton, Hickory, Wilkesboro area worried about the lee side dry slot? It sure seems to be showing up on map after map, no matter the model.It is always a worry regardless of the set up :-)Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Anybody else in the Rutherford, Morganton, Hickory, Wilkesboro area worried about the lee side dry slot? It sure seems to be showing up on map after map, no matter the model. Yeah pretty worried about it :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Anybody else in the Rutherford, Morganton, Hickory, Wilkesboro area worried about the lee side dry slot? It sure seems to be showing up on map after map, no matter the model. Most definitely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, calculus1 said: Anybody else in the Rutherford, Morganton, Hickory, Wilkesboro area worried about the lee side dry slot? It sure seems to be showing up on map after map, no matter the model. +1 Im defiantly worried WSW or not. It can very possibly happen. If i get 3in ill honestly be shocked. While all around me jackpots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I'm telling all my friends in the area to figure on 1-2 inches. If it turns out to be more we can be pleasantly surprised. The mechanics of this system seem to definitely be favoring the eastern half of the state.Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Anybody else in the Rutherford, Morganton, Hickory, Wilkesboro area worried about the lee side dry slot? It sure seems to be showing up on map after map, no matter the model. It can happen, but the strength of the upper level disturbance should help us east of the mountains. We always have to worry about that dry slot, & unfortunately its not something that is easily forecasted. Personally, I think the area will see around a quarter of an inch of precip, which is 2-4 or 3-6 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Given the strength (or lack there of) of the SLP and proximity to the coast, I am going to call BS (at the moment) on these SN IP ZR transition zones, it is either going to be rain or snow with a slim corridor of mixing. This fits climo of a Miller A. I do have a hard time believing the NAM and RGEM are that far off on the thermals for the Coastal Plain, especially with the Euro showing a very sharp gradient along the 95 corridor and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: That's actually really good. I mean, I fully expect my part of the county to see some pingers, because that's how we roll, but the RGEM is pretty much keeping the R/S line in the same area as previous runs...just eyeballing it, since I don't have the county breakdown. I think it's a given we mix even with the favorable tracks. The Atlantic is a furnace....this modeled snow is impressive, it always is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 31 minutes ago, Lookout said: tell me about it. it's been maddening for me too because of temps. If you are in the atlanta/athens/gainesville triangle consider yourself lucky. This is a great storm for the upcoming model faceoff since all or them seem to have their quirks with this system. The GFS is gonna get tarred and feathered if it busts based on 10 or so consistent runs like Cheez said. That being said, from a selfish perspective I'm really happy with my location since I'm literally pinpointed in the middle between Atlanta, Gainesville and Athens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS soundings via bufkit for RDU look pretty much like all snow. Warm nose on this one is near 800mb and get's to -2 or -3 when the SLP is closest, which is roughly 4am Saturday morning. Otherwise looks like all snow w/ totals near 1.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Well its been a weird day, with all the NW trend and warm nose talk, but the GFS really wants to give MBY a foot of snow and I just think its got it right ( maybe not a foot lol but its gonna snow good ) its not budging much and that's pretty remarkable.....the para NAM output matching the GFS just reinforces my belief that by this time tomorrow the NAM will have come to its senses and be dropping 20" lollipops on central and eastern NC as it overdoes QPF......6-12" seems reasonable for a lot of central NC and eastern NC north of Hwy 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 That dry socket between hours 30 and 36 makes me a bit worried... Hopefully the precip shield will go further north and rise in intensity and the cold air will make it down to metro ATL sooner than later... Maybe someone can comfort me on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, GlaringSun said: That dry socket between hours 30 and 36 makes me a bit worried... Hopefully the precip shield will go further north and rise in intensity and the cold air will make it down to metro ATL sooner than later... Maybe someone can comfort me on this? Dentist turned meteorologist.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On satellite you can see the SW already tilting. Really beautiful. Models keep trying to slow it down, but it's not working in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: Dentist turned meteorologist.. HKY_WX will you be putting out a map tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vorticity Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 34 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: So how many runs in a row has the GFS looked basically the same? 10? So now do we finally believe it? Isn't there a meme about consistency being a good thing only if you're not an idiot? lol If the models were stable for a decade this would be easier, back in the day we had a handleful of models and we learned there local quirks and could easily improve on them. But these days they've made it a crap shoot ATL NWS certainly is hugging the GFS without hesitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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