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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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10 minutes ago, Wow said:

NAM is sharper with the trough.  Yay.

Very good news.. 

9 minutes ago, beanskip said:
 

No doubt. Love the blend they are using. 

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Just now, Poimen said:

LP near ILM at 42. 

And that normally means a really good storm for us in the Triad.   I have to believe the NAM is a little overdone on precip totals, and a little too warm though.  I do think climatology is starting to play a bigger role... seems like when we started Temps weren't an issue for hardly anyone on the board... and as the runs go by, the fact that we're in the south starts to become evident. 

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2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

The RPM, which has been totally anemic all along, now has 1-2" for Atlanta. Baby steps.....

The one period I'd watch your area is 09-16Z.  The stronger that vort is as it drops in the more likely some sort of snow may break out in that window.  The UKMET/Euro show that and the 18Z NAM shows it from 06-10Z

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4 minutes ago, weatherheels said:

And that normally means a really good storm for us in the Triad.   I have to believe the NAM is a little overdone on precip totals, and a little too warm though.  I do think climatology is starting to play a bigger role... seems like when we started Temps weren't an issue for hardly anyone on the board... and as the runs go by, the fact that we're in the south starts to become evident. 

Yes it sure does.  Not sure if I believe it or not though...temps not an issue back here.  Jan 1987 anyone?

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

NAM also has that razor sharp cutoff near ATL during a good part of the event.  This could end up being a HRRR nowcast

12Z GFS keeps the heavier precip around much longer for our area. If the 18Z NAM were to verify most of the heavy stuff looks like it's gone before 850s really drop to a safe level. Definitely going to be very sharp cutoffs in the ATL/Athens area. I'd hate to be any further east of Athens with the warm nose.

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FFC talking about convective snow bands in their discussion. They sound fed up with the models as well haha


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
322 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2017


...INCREASING CHANCES FOR HIGH IMPACT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
NORTH GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday/...

Potentially high impact accumulating snow event on our hands for
majority of north Georgia and parts of west central Georgia starting in
far north Friday afternoon then transitioning southward by late
afternoon into the overnight. The setup isn`t of a variety that we see
very often in the region as it is not the more typical CAD wedge with
overrunning moisture and resultant diabatic low level effects...but an
advective more large scale forcing interacting with a developing
Gulf/coastal low pressure system and the enhanced risk for convective
banding of heavier snow within the northern deformation zone. Multiple
forcings are at play with conditional instability with the saturated
column...mid/upper level vorticity advection from the west and low
level translated cyclogenesis to the south.

P-type and amounts...progged thermal profiles and very deep saturation
columns support a rain to snow transition with possibly brief sleet
period. The main worry will be the heavy snow potential within
convective banding that could occur by late Friday afternoon into early
Saturday morning that includes the Atlanta metro area. Given the
possible liquid equivalent moisture and snow to liquid ratios upwards
of 12:1 /possibly higher at times/...a band could quickly dump a few
inches within an hour. Some high res models that resolve convective
processes explicitly are indicating multiple bands...though some
discrepancy on exact location. Overall expected amounts of 2 to 4
inches with locally higher north of a line from Hamilton to Forsyth to
Lexington that includes the Atlanta metro area. Have upgraded the
Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning accordingly and started
the onset for farther southern portions including Atlanta after 21z
Friday or 4 PM. This continues through 1 PM Saturday as it should be
diminishing to the east as the low tracks farther up the east coast
...though additional concern is to what little snow could melt through
the weekend and even Monday if these snow totals come to fruition. Even
areas farther south outside the warning location may end up with
subsequent overnight ice developing given the arctic followup. Further
advisory upgrades may be warranted.

Please monitor the forecast updates leading up to this event as some
amounts and timing could be adjusted...but this is our best filtered
estimate to what has been a roller coaster ride of various guidance
member solutions in the last several days...while acknowledging this
atypical event setup.
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