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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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5 minutes ago, griteater said:

WPC went with a GFS/Euro blend in their noted 19z update

That would put me in about 7 -8 inch range.

I agree with Webber for Randolph county 6-12. Really think we end up closer to 12 than 6 up here in NW part of the county for the very same reasons he mentioned. Gonna be fun watching whatever we get add up.

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23 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

Not sure if it has been mentioned, but the SREF plumes are definitely improved over last night.  The 09z run has the mean around 4" for CLT, RDU, and GSO.  There's a pretty even distribution from nothing up to around 8" with no really clumping, along with a few 20"+ outliers and some 0" outliers.  The 15z plumes will be out within the next couple hours.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

I think Alan's call map looks really good at this point.  NE NC is going to get hammered, IMO.

The 15z run ticked totals up another inch or two.  Around 4.5" for CLT, 5" for RDU, 6" for GSO.

Probably is time for an overamped happy hour NAM run now.

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850-700 mb thicknesses look a bit sketchy on the NAM for some areas.  156 dm at hr 39 at RDU, though it crashes to  a more reasonable number in the following few hours.

But it's the overamped, warm NAM...though the NAM is pretty good at finding warm noses in these situations, so you never know.

1008ish mb surface low a little off Hatteras at hr 45.  Nice run for WNC, for sure.  The I-85 corridor looks nice.

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