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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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12 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Most of western NC (mountains) are nearly blanked as well.  Huge difference compared to the GFS, but certainly lines up better with CMC, RGEM, and NAM.

I've been thinking that too for the last couple of days.  GFS has been off by itself.

Didn't want to post until a met did due to being bashed.

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1 minute ago, jc697 said:

I've been thinking that too for the last couple of days.  GFS has been off by itself.

Didn't want to post until a met did due to being bashed.

 

Last night, the 00Z Euro, CMC, and GFS were as closely aligned moving closer to the event. So many assumed it would start to balance.  To see this today really just throws everybody for a loop.

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Just now, Queencitywx said:

12z BUFKIT totals for selected locations: 

KATL: 4.3" snow, 1.5" sleet
KBHM: 1" Snow
KCLT: 9.4" snow
KGSO: 10.8" snow
KGSP: 7.2" snow(does lose .28 to RNSN mix)
KHKY: 4.3" snow
KRDU: 12.4" snow

 

I would take that KGSO total in a heartbeat but think it will be half of that 

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I think the EPS will tell us something, several members last night had little to no snow but many had more. I am hoping that it sticks to a majority of members with at least an inch or two- if not that that is cause for concern. This system is *very* sensitive to small changes in the track of the vort max, I do think we also need to remember how most of the GEFS members were basically identical to the Op. Again, no cliff diving for me yet, but a bit closer to the edge.

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16 minutes ago, griteater said:

Just looked at the UKMet.  It's really weird with the models this morning.  It's like they were converging together last night...now the GFS and UKMet like a sharpened wave and more storm and the Euro and Canadian like a quicker, late hitter.  Temper the GFS amounts I guess, but I would lean more toward the GFS/UKMet solution come go time, JMO

Good call.....I think in the end, most systems do end up a blend of the various models.  Each models bias have to be factored in as well as any obvious errors in how they are handling the data.  However it is somewhat surprising that at this late hour the GFS and Euro are so far apart.

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24 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

12z BUFKIT totals for selected locations: 

KATL: 4.3" snow, 1.5" sleet
KBHM: 1" Snow
KCLT: 9.4" snow
KGSO: 10.8" snow
KGSP: 7.2" snow(does lose .28 to RNSN mix)
KHKY: 4.3" snow
KRDU: 12.4" snow

 

 
 

GFS is cake and many would take what it gives. Wish this area had a site. I can only assume based on GSP, CLT, HKY and AVL. 

You can access data here. Click on Cobb Data once you choose a site

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/

 

To edit, KFQD does well on the 12GFS

 

Screen Shot 2017-01-05 at 1.55.14 PM.png

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25 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

12z BUFKIT totals for selected locations: 

KATL: 4.3" snow, 1.5" sleet
KBHM: 1" Snow
KCLT: 9.4" snow
KGSO: 10.8" snow
KGSP: 7.2" snow(does lose .28 to RNSN mix)
KHKY: 4.3" snow
KRDU: 12.4" snow

 

Would you mind including KORF for future model total posts?

Between the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern forums, we're a bit homeless and overlooked.  Thanks!

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Wouldn't want to be forecasting this storm. Have to give credence to GFS's consistency and ensemble support, but it wouldn't be the first time it was consistently wrong. EE rule is in play here, which doesn't bode well for western NC/N. Ga. folks. I've seen the UK pull of a coup on these before. I don't know, NEVER comfortable with too many eggs in the GFS basket. Given the narrow swath of heavy snow, bust potential seems high. Would esp. hate to be a forecaster in central Alabama right now, given the last Euro run. 

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1 minute ago, Cheeznado said:

My current call for the Atlanta Metro is 1-4" But at this point, who knows?

 

 

Doing a percentage check on the previous EURO ensemble and right around 54% of the Ensembles had a decent snow covering in Metro Atlanta.  When it shifted on the most recent run, it caught me highly off guard to see so many ensembles push the model away.  Interesting nevertheless.

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1 minute ago, beanskip said:

Wouldn't want to be forecasting this storm. Have to give credence to GFS's consistency and ensemble support, but it wouldn't be the first time it was consistently wrong. EE rule is in play here, which doesn't bode well for western NC/N. Ga. folks. I've seen the UK pull of a coup on these before. I don't know, NEVER comfortable with too many eggs in the GFS basket. Given the narrow swath of heavy snow, bust potential seems high. Would esp. hate to be a forecaster in central Alabama right now, given the last Euro run. 

What is EE ?

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2 minutes ago, SouthernStorms said:

The mets here in bama are on both extremes. some saying nothing at all and some (Spann) saying 3" for my area.

I understand, I live in the Birmingham area. I guess it depends on which model they use. I'm going to keep up with the updates from the NWS Bham office as a guide.

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Just now, Stormsfury said:

The Ee rule was an agreement with the EURO and old ETA (now the NAM) at 84 hours.  However, both models are former shadows of themselves and no longer do I apply it like in years past. 

 

Welcome Mike!

Lets see how it plays out as the cards continue to fall. Skip many old timers  around here have been down this rabbit hole many times. 

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