No snow for you Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, burgertime said: GSP to CLT to RDU do well on this run. It's not a monster like the GFS. Kind of split the difference between the GFS and the NAM to my eyes looking at SFC maps. Is this going to be the Burger boom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 At 48-51 good snow in a lot of E NC save the SE Coast....totals are down, but good in NE corner of NC into SE corner of VA This looked like the yucky, non-stream separated CMC runs. Haven't seen the UKMet, but it doesn't sound like it went this direction. More model wobbles will continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Totals don't look great on the Euro map...but with that Vort coming over head you would see a lot of forcing and more snow than the Euro is showing I would suspect. Not a bad run but we're rooting for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: At 48-51 good snow in a lot of E NC save the SE Coast....totals are down, but good in NE corner of NC into SE corner of VA This looked like the yucky, non-stream separated CMC runs. Haven't seen the UKMet, but it doesn't sound like it went this direction. More model wobbles will continue about 1/3rd of the GFS QPF in this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 looks to be around ~9" or so for rdu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GA blanked on this run. GSP to CLT to RDU are 2-4...one little 4+ blip just south of Rock Hill in SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, burgertime said: Totals don't look great on the Euro map...but with that Vort coming over head you would see a lot of forcing and more snow than the Euro is showing I would suspect. Jot a bad run but we're rooting for the GFS. Should be close to about 24 hours away from some precip breaking out in GA. Isn't it kind of a watch radar and temps thing, from here on out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Had such high hopes from consistent models for the last 8 days or so in my area. Cold rain it is. Climo wins again. Won't stop wishing for a southeast trend until the last minute! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I don't know...Euro/CMC/NAM/RGEM almost totally blank Atlanta...might have to just go with that camp and save myself massive disappointment. That's just a hard line of players to beat at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 ~.8" qpf for rdu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: It's about 50-100 NW of the 0z run. Jet is in perfect place for rapid intensification. not worried about surface junk. With the LP placement? Sorry im on phone and cant look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Before everyone cliff dives because of the Euro- I looked at the difference in the vort max between it and the GFS and it is miniscule. Plus, 0-48 hours is not in the Euro's wheelhouse, no evidence at that time range it is better. Also, it has been flopping around a lot more than the GFS, consistency is a big deal in forecasting IMO. So am I worried? Yes. Am going to change my forecast and launch myself into the void? Not yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, burgertime said: GA blanked on this run. GSP to CLT to RDU are 2-4...one little 4+ blip just south of Rock Hill in SC. Most of western NC (mountains) are nearly blanked as well. Huge difference compared to the GFS, but certainly lines up better with CMC, RGEM, and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malak05 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said: I don't know...Euro/CMC/NAM/RGEM almost totally blank Atlanta...might have to just go with that camp and save myself massive disappointment. That's just a hard line of players to beat at this point in time. You tell me it so frustrating now... the GFS has been consistent consistent and all these runs particular Euro/CMC where all over the board yesterday finally agreed with GFS and then went back to something complete different. Perhaps something to be said about how matter is being handled by these guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, burgertime said: GA blanked on this run. GSP to CLT to RDU are 2-4...one little 4+ blip just south of Rock Hill in SC. This is the concern early transfer of energy to the Atlantic low so no precip explodes over N AL/GA. Need the trough slightly sharper and a bit further west like the GFS/UKMET/ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Hard to imagine the two major globals still being in such a disagreement at this point. I'd usually side with the EURO but Ukie and GFS have been pretty darn consistent with more qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: ~.8" qpf for rdu. That would be a decent run for our area. Does anybody have a snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Hard to imagine the two major globals still being in such a disagreement at this point. I'd usually side with the EURO but Ukie and GFS have been pretty darn consistent with more qpf. The problem is that it's not just the EURO showing this. It has two short range models on it's side: NAM/RGEM. Even the CMC sort of agrees. That's what worries me the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, burgertime said: GA blanked on this run. GSP to CLT to RDU are 2-4...one little 4+ blip just south of Rock Hill in SC. RDU looks like 7-8" to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: That would be a decent run for our area. Does anybody have a snow map? 0z and 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 27 minutes ago, UpStateCAD said: sure seems like in the UpState/GSP area we are using a lot of precip to wet-bulb. End up using over half of the precip to bring 2M temps below freezing. I think this particular area has a huge bust potential. That's exactly what I was questioning earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: about 1/3rd of the GFS QPF in this run. Just looked at the UKMet. It's really weird with the models this morning. It's like they were converging together last night...now the GFS and UKMet like a sharpened wave and more storm and the Euro and Canadian like a quicker, late hitter. Temper the GFS amounts I guess, but I would lean more toward the GFS/UKMet solution come go time, JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 A few more interesting maps: A hatched -0 isotherm on the GEFS right over the CLT metro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malak05 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: The problem is that it's not just the EURO showing this. It has two short range models on it's side: NAM/RGEM. Even the CMC sort of agrees. That's what worries me the most. The 2 models that yesterday where aligning more with the GFS which the Euro did as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: 0z and 12z Consistent. Really strange how narrow that band which leaves many out of significant accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Euro shows just about no snow for Alabama, but most of the other models do. Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Expands out over most of the piedmont: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Just looked at the UKMet. It's really weird with the models this morning. It's like they were converging together last night...now the GFS and UKMet like a sharpened wave and more storm and the Euro and Canadian like a quicker, late hitter. Temper the GFS amounts I guess, but I would lean more toward the GFS/UKMet solution come go time, JMO Very interested to see what blend the WPC uses for the afternoon forecast. That will speak volumes. I agree, Ukmet and GFS have been very consistent with the overall set up. Euro, CMC, et all not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Most of western NC (mountains) are nearly blanked as well. Huge difference compared to the GFS, but certainly lines up better with CMC, RGEM, and NAM.We must be looking at a different NAM because the 3km has 6-9" IMBY in the definitely NC mountains. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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