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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said:

How big is this afternoons Euro run ?

Very.  It's been inconsistent to an extent, especially the more northeast up the coast you go where itself and the ensembles waffled significant yesterday from one run to the next on how far west the bigger snows were.  I also expect to see it get colder in your area as its done so now for three runs 

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One thing to keep in mind with regard to accumulations is that even if you are getting 10:1 ratios, you won't get 10:1 ground truth due to compaction and such.

Still, the 12z GFS is making me really wish I was in Greensboro again...that's a legitimate 6-9" storm...hard to do much better than that in those parts.  I still think CLT/RDU are better places to be for this storm, but there's definitely more mixing risk there.  But I'm sitting on the beach in San Juan, so oh well. :lol:

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

From 12z GFS at 1AM Saturday.  Blue shading is strong vertical lift in the upper levels.  Orange and red off the mid atlantic coast is a strengthening jet streak.  Diverging arrow vectors show the upper level divergence allowing precip to really blossom.  Impressive.

 

Awesome Grit, and the NC piedmont is right in the middle of it.  That's why I say it's odd the EURO keeps the precip lower in the piedmont, you'd think it'd be higher as the GFS has come around to.  Hoping we get consistency in this next run. 

Then tomorrow we start sweating other models!! On to the HWMRF-1000, RGM, NAM, HHHHHHHR, etc. :snowing:

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5 minutes ago, griteater said:

From 12z GFS at 1AM Saturday.  Blue shading is strong vertical lift in the upper levels.  Orange and red off the mid atlantic coast is a strengthening jet streak.  Diverging arrow vectors show the upper level divergence allowing precip to really blossom.  Impressive.

8ycapc.gif

 

I think you just explained that better than I have ever read anywhere....KUDOS

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From FFC about an hour ago. An upgrade to Winter Storm Warnings may come as early as this afternoon...

621
FXUS62 KFFC 051627
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1127 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2017


.UPDATE...
Forecast remains tricky with regards to snowfall accumulations and
timing of onset Friday. The overnight ensembles have reiterated
previous solutions with higher snowfall amounts over the metro
Atlanta area as convective banding dumps snow over the area late
Friday through Saturday morning. At this time, have focused the
update on hourly temperatures, dew points, QPF and snowfall
amounts. Will continue to monitor the 12z models as they come in
before doing another round of updates for the afternoon forecast
package, but for now 4"+ snowfall possible for portions of the
eastern metro area, with most of the Atlanta metro generally
seeing 2-3". Winter Storm Watch still in effect and will likely
need to upgrade to Warnings/Advisories this afternoon given the
current forecast amounts.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FFC&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

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Great GFS run and the ensembles all look almost identical. Also love seeing the graph of over an inch of precip that should be snow, and a 99.9% chance of 3 inches or greater for almost all of NC. Yeah, the temps are always a worry in the back of our minds around here, but as of now everything looks great for a big winter storm. 

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16 minutes ago, griteater said:

From 12z GFS at 1AM Saturday.  Blue shading is strong vertical lift in the upper levels.  Orange and red off the mid atlantic coast is a strengthening jet streak.  Diverging arrow vectors show the upper level divergence allowing precip to really blossom.  Impressive.

4

 

Might be able to get some thundersnow out of that. 

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