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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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1 minute ago, griteater said:

That's the CMC scenario.  Seeing the GFS come in though, it tends to be a little weaker with these waves at this time range I'd say...so seeing it sharpen this morning, I don't think we are going to see this all of the sudden go back flatter

That's my hope.  I'd love to see it trend just a little more sharper for good measure.

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2 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said:

Thoughts out there on the west Ga area particulary I-20 corridor....you all think it will hold heavy as it shows?

Because colder air is coming earlier now, the slug of moisture from 22-03Z which is the best chance it seems for heavier stuff in that area may be frozen.  It may be sleet though.  Here is the 12Z SPC WRF at 36 hours, everything moving SW to NE at that time

 

refd_1000m_f36.gif

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Because colder air is coming earlier now, the slug of moisture from 22-03Z which is the best chance it seems for heavier stuff in that area may be frozen.  It may be sleet though.  Here is the 12Z SPC WRF at 36 hours, everything moving SW to NE at that time

 

 

Goose, you've said the cold air is coming in earlier now, but the system is continuing to tick to the NW.  It seems that if the cold was pressing more and earlier, the storm track would be a little farther south.  Of course, you may be talking about a different area than I'm referring too.

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3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Goose, you've said the cold air is coming in earlier now, but the system is continuing to tick to the NW.  It seems that if the cold was pressing more and earlier, the storm track would be a little farther south.  Of course, you may be talking about a different area than I'm referring too.

Only in AL and GA.  It's always a different story for those areas on these Miller A type systems.  The cold has clearly been under modeled there and they don't have a deeper low developing to their SE like NC and VA do.  The whole cold air scenario in NC or VA is different because you have a developing deeper low coming up the coast and also mountains to the west 

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Only in AL and GA.  It's always a different story for those areas on these Miller A type systems.  The cold has clearly been under modeled there and they don't have a deeper low developing to their SE like NC and VA do.  The whole cold air scenario there is different because you have a developing deeper low coming up the coast and also mountains to the west 

Good deal, thanks much!

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4 minutes ago, weatherfide said:

I think you're in a good spot. The trends have definitely shifted the odds in your favor. I am much more concerned that south of I-20 is going to get a nice cold rain only.

I would be more worried they see too little precip TBH then rain at this point.  Maybe Macon but if you mean the immediate southern ATL suburbs I'm less concerned about rain than I am too dry. 

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Awesome look from the GFS for MBY this morning.  Euro is not quite there yet with the QPF it seems though, still has that odd low point in the piedmont of NC.  I'd like to see that increase north and west to agree with the GFS before I get excited about anything over 4 inches.  Great that it seems like most in NC are getting in on the action.  I still think CLT has a bit more wiggle room but I'm not really looking for any further NW trend.  I liked the WPC track posted earlier.  That's about textbook.  

I think many tv mets are catching up to this thing.  Thankfully this is on a weekend so CLT won't be disrupted too bad, but other than Matt East, most I've seen have been WAY conservative.  Kudos so far to GSP, I think they've been just about right on this storm so far.  Great to have a storm on our front porch...and so early in the season!! Can't wait to see what February holds!! lol. 

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