BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Wow said: Ignore the surface output and look at the 500mb - great run. No worries here. I'm waiting for someone to mention the SREF so I can remind them how bad it screwed the pooch in that 2015 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The key is the 500 vort- the 12Z NAM is faster and farther north with it. As Delta said, this does not match basically all other guidance so can be ignored.....for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The RGEM is a legit 6+ hours slower than the NAM just 42 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: Great trend. No, terrible trend for me. GFS baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Incoming wall of awesomeness approaching CLT, RDU at 39. I would think rates could overcome some of the watmer air nearby if qpf as progged now is that heavy. But yes def better for NW areas. Indeed..has been a bit too fast as noted by wpc. that said, the nam and other models are showing precip heavy enough that i would expect we are going to start seeing some dynamical cooling effects. indeed, you can see hints of it already. Note the 0c showing up at 850c below...in general 850mb temps are 3c colder across central ga compared to the 06z run...in part because of that heavy precip. As we get closer i think we will see more of that...these type of things though are normally something the models have a hard time picking up on until we get close. It's very possible that there could be a sudden crash of temps to the south of the stable 0c isotherm at 850 to 950mb and a sudden changeover sooner than the models would indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 It's hard to believe the NAM could be this wrong this close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: NAM gives me about half a foot! But it does look very strung out and wrong... Dont think the low would develop that far ahead of the main trough Exactly. GFS has the low well back into the GOM at the same time. NAM has the base of the s/w back over AR yet already has the low on the SE coast. It tranferred wayy to early so it left the western areas with minimal precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: It's hard to believe the NAM could be this wrong this close to the event. Said by many men. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, mckinnonwg said: the NAM 12K trended better.... Possible Noob Question: I know 4K is dialed in better but the fact that the 12K increased is a good thing...or no Depends on where you look. For GA it decreased...especially far north GA Personally I wouldn't fret over surface details of the NAM right now as my most interest with it is the sharper 500mb trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Even NY and Boston get hit. I'd be surprised if that happened with this airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 NAM jackpots RIC so DT will love it.. the evolution of the system was interesting on this run and definitely showed more of the NS interaction than previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: It's hard to believe the NAM could be this wrong this close to the event. How accurate is it within 48 hrs vs 24 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Queencitywx said: Said by many men. Haha true, I guess. But it's going to have to massively correct pronto, or we're going to see the other guidance continue to step toward it. The trend has clearly been NW for a while now, though not as extreme as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, this storm has a good chance to be the biggest over a more widespread area, since the 2011 storm! IF, IF, temps aren't a concern! They showed that bubble with windflow arrows on TWC this morning, and it looked like through Greenville, the winds were NEasterly, and coming from ATL, they were NWesterly, and they kind of converged on the Lookout bubble. Mack, I hate that dam* bubble..... I live up toward highway 11 in pickens county and there have been to many times it would be raining here even though hundreds of feet higher in elevation than places like anderson and greenwood but, it would be snowing there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: No, terrible trend for me. GFS baby! Just looking at the mid level trends, it's good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: No worries here. I'm waiting for someone to mention the SREF so I can remind them how bad it screwed the pooch in that 2015 event. You will NEVER hear me mention the SREF. I have ZERO confidence in it. It belongs on the scrap heap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, GaStorm said: How accurate is it within 48 hrs vs 24 hrs? No idea. Everybody always says how bad it is post 60 hours. It doesn't improve until inside 48 hours. That's where it's useful, they say. Now, we're inside 36 hours and it doesn't have a clue? Hmmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Haha true, I guess. But it's going to have to massively correct pronto, or we're going to see the other guidance continue to step toward it. The trend has clearly been NW for a while now, though not as extreme as the NAM. NAM will fix itself, usually will be the last to do so. It has a tendency to harp on the wrong piece of energy to place the sfc low. I'm seeing this trend slower with more precip further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Peeps...I wouldn't completely fret over the NAM just yet. Personally I think outside of 24 hours the NAM's value starts to drop off dramatically. The most important take away from this NAM run is the 500mb trough slightly deeper. That's it... The NAM is trying to join the party so give it some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Wow said: NAM will fix itself, usually will be the last to do so. It has a tendency to harp on the wrong piece of energy to place the sfc low. I'm seeing this trend slower with more precip further west. So H5 is correct but it translated to surface incorrect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Here's the 12km snow map. Of course some of this would be sleet from RDU eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: NAM will fix itself, usually will be the last to do so. It has a tendency to harp on the wrong piece of energy to place the sfc low. I'm seeing this trend slower with more precip further west. A slower trend is preferred for all areas, I think. We'll see if the RGEM backs up the NAM. If it does, then we may have some problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, MotoWeatherman said: Peeps...I wouldn't completely fret over the NAM just yet. Personally I think outside of 24 hours the NAM's value starts to drop off dramatically. The most important take away from this NAM run is the 500mb trough slightly deeper. That's it... The NAM is trying to join the party so give it some time. Yeah this could turn out to be a bigger storm for areas further north including NW GA that had barely any accumulations on the map for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The 4km NAM is a little colder at 850 and a little further SE with the surface low off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Here's the 12km snow map. Of course some of this would be sleet from RDU eastward. Still looks good. Not sure why some are so worried and negative all the time. Wow and the mets know what they are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Here's the 12km snow map. Of course some of this would be sleet from RDU eastward. Snow all the way down to the Gulf Coast in MS, AL, & the extreme W FL Panhandle?.....our thermal profiles say NO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: So H5 is correct but it translated to surface incorrect? As far as trend of placement and sharpness of the trough, yes. It's following the trend of all other models. There a little piece of vort energy ahead of the wave that's placing the sfc low way ahead of it which kills off any blossoming of precip over W NC/SC/GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GSP just added Iredell/Rowan/Catawba to the WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Wow said: There a little piece of vort energy ahead of the wave that's placing the sfc low way ahead of it which kills off any blossoming of precip over W NC/SC/GA. However, this is where you believe it is incorrect, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.