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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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4 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:


Wow!!! That is a major increase...


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It was.  I was using the Kuchera Accumulated Snowfall which takes into account the higher ratios.  I imagine that the snow depth chart minus a couple would be more realistic for the ground truth.  Here is the snow depth map.

snod.us_ma.png

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Just now, Cheeznado said:

Boy FFC is awfully conservative and their AFD is pretty worthless- no mention of how the models have increased the qpf, their map has no area from Columbus to the mountains over 2-3".

RGEM has tons of sleet for ATL, 7mm, and 3mm of snow.  Its beyond its best range as of now and the RGEM also is not always great on it 06 or 18Z runs, but that is interesting.  If it still shows that later today may need to be considered.

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1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Look at those color drop offs between ATL and GSP! GFS's warm nose is going to kill some accumulation numbers through there. I've seen it time and time again. That thing better stay away from my house

image.png

guess who is slap dab in the middle of the screwzone there? ....:gun_bandana::axe:

That being said...a don't think it's going to be quite as bad/extreme as the gfs keeps painting as...mainly because the column is cold enough that steady rates should be able to get snow the surface and crash the surface temps more/faster than the gfs and others have been showing. The 06z gfs made it a closer call though...but at the same time it increased liquid totals quite a lot. Up to 1.33 liquid here...i would have to believe that although the airmass isn't terribly dry aloft...a combo of initial evap cooling combined with with precip that heavy there is likely to be more dynamical cooling that is being shown in the upper savannah river valley...especially since strong waa will be absent. There is even the possibility of a lot of sleet in this area...if things shake out just right for a length of time.   If we were talking a 0.25 to 0.50....the bubble would probably be screwed but that is a lot of precip. Quite a bit might depend on just how warm the area gets tomorrow. If clouds/precip move in sooner...those mid 40s the gfs has been showing  ( even upper 40s east of the savannah river) will probably be too high which obviously could make a difference later.  But no doubt some will be wasted still though. 

  It certainly is a nail biter here though and i'd much rather it being shown being cold enough period.  If things warm any further I might end up having to head to gainesville or something but it's extremely frustrating that it's even an issue when temps are going to be much much colder every where else...in this case maybe as little as 20 to 25 miles in places...where there could be some exceptionally high totals. 

 

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

RGEM has tons of sleet for ATL, 7mm, and 3mm of snow.  Its beyond its best range as of now and the RGEM also is not always great on it 06 or 18Z runs, but that is interesting.  If it still shows that later today may need to be considered.

I am not discounting the possibility of some part of the Metro getting less that what the GFS shows but if the reason is part of the area is sleet, than some area in GA just north of there will get a lot more than 2-3". My beef with their clown map is *no* area in all of GA is going to get more than 3"?

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2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

I am not discounting the possibility of some part of the Metro getting less that what the GFS shows but if the reason is part of the area is sleet, than some area in GA just north of there will get a lot more than 2-3". My beef with their clown map is *no* area in all of GA is going to get more than 3"?

I'm a bit suspicious of where the RGEM shows sleet, its showing it on the NW side of the precip where the CAA should be strong enough that is not happening.  So its possible its just end of run RGEM stuff that wont happen

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7 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Boy FFC is awfully conservative and their AFD is pretty worthless- no mention of how the models have increased the qpf, their map has no area from Columbus to the mountains over 2-3".

Ya I thought it was as well. Euro and gfs even have a T-2" down here. Yalls way was way better last night's runs for sure. As you know. 

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4 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Boy FFC is awfully conservative and their AFD is pretty worthless- no mention of how the models have increased the qpf, their map has no area from Columbus to the mountains over 2-3".

yeah...it could have been better and probably should have at least mentioned the possibility of more. Equally as  frustrating is watching the local on air mets...making definitive statements that *at most* people will probably see just an inch or two..with isolated 3 inch pockets "in the mountains"...without even mentioning the possibility of more.  I understand trying to temper expectations and not over hype but given the model data currently that is quite absurd. I don't understand why they can't say  "hey look..this is what we are forecasting but there is a chance there could be quite a bit more if it works out just right".  Otherwise, you end up in a situation where once again people are not fully informed of how much there could be and end up getting stranded and in accidents..yet again. 

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Last 4 runs of the GFS you can clearly see the trend of digging the shortwave further south across the OK panhandle with increase ridging across the Carolinas.  QPF has responded to that as well by ramping up and also inching northward.  I would expect this trend to continue.  This would be good snow new for places farther north in GA and further west in the Carolinas.  Small changes make a huge difference.

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh36_trend.gif

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13 minutes ago, ajr said:

Snowfall forecast from WRAL - in the article Elizabeth Gardner references "some computer models that are holding out". Does anyone know which models are still in the air for the RDU area?

16401908-1483613477-646x485.jpg

Pretty sure that is just a contextual reference to some models showing more snow and some less that's all.

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13 minutes ago, scottk said:

Whys it so hard for me to realize that 99% of the time the snow is always going to end up N-NW of where it was originally thought to be?


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The NW trend happen more often than not the last 48 hours leading up to a storm.

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The RGEM says the lee-side warm bubble gets evaporated much faster than the GFS. I like that the rgem still shows the bubble in the exact same spot as the GFS, however, as soon as heavy precip arrives it flips this area over to snow and they only lose 1 inch at most of potential accumulation. The GFS has this area losing out on 6 or 7 inches of snow. You can see it clearly in the 10pm and 1am panels. At 10pm, the bubble is evident on the snowfall map, at 1am, it is gone and snow has accumulated at the same rate everywhere that 850's are below zero in this area.

Grant it, the rain/snow line is a little farther north on the RGEM when compared to the GFS, but I can live with that as long as I don't get screwed by the stupid lee-side warm bubble.

rgem_asnow_seus_15.png

rgem_asnow_seus_16.png

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