windyinnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 BAM! GSP issues a Winter Storm Watch with their AM package. Locations include... NE GA, Upstate SC, & the Southern portion of the NC Foothills & Piedmont. Snow Accumulations... 3 to 5 inches. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/#2017-O-NEW-KGSP-WS-A-0001/DMX-N0Q-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 That gradient on that Euro qpf was crazy around the upstate! Had .45 or so around downtown and about 30 miles S, around Greenwood or so , is sitting at 1.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 In the meantime RDU stays conservative .SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday night/... As of 405 Am Thursday... ...Increasing potential for a winter storm to affect sections of central NC Friday night and Saturday... The exiting s/w early Friday will induce a nly flow behind it, initiating a period of low level caa. The column cools below freezing to about a few thousand feet above the surface by Friday evening. Meanwhile a fairly substantial s/w will be exiting the southern Plains late Friday, crossing the TN Valley Friday night. This system will tap moisture residing over the gulf newd into our region. As the system gets closer, mid-upper divergence increases after 00Z Saturday, while a baggy/weak 850mb low takes shape just to our sw. The increasing moisture and lift will lead to widespread precipitation breaking out over central NC. Very light precip, primarily in the form of light rain, possibly mixed with sleet across the north, may occur as early as 4-6 PM. As the evening progresses, expect the precip to expand and increase in intensity. The column is sufficiently wet in the favored dendrite region, and with lift increasing after 00Z, expect periods of snow to overspread central NC late Friday evening into the overnight hours. The highest threat for accumulating snow will occur after midnight. Based on the current projected track of the sfc and 850mb lows, expect the potential for a band of heavy snow to extend from the southern Piedmont newd through the eastern Piedmont into the northern coastal plain. Within this region snow amounts of 1-2 inches appear highly likely with isolated heavier amounts. Farther to the northwest, where the air is drier, the nw Piedmont should see at least an inch. If the track of the sfc/850mb varies 50-75 miles from current projections, this will result in an adjustment (either farther northwest or farther southeast) of the band of moderate snow. The translation eastward of the s/w will induce sfc cyclogenesis off the se U.S. coast late Friday night through early Saturday. The movement of this low along the coast may produce a period of moderate snow over portions of our coastal plain and possibly the eastern Piedmont Saturday morning. As this low moves farther off the coast Saturday afternoon, should see the snow diminish across central NC Saturday afternoon. Have decided to go a conservative with the increase in snow amounts from the previous forecast as difficult to increase snow amounts two fold based on one model run that is much wetter compared to its earlier counterparts. For now will advertise the potential for 3-5 inches across large swath of central NC by the time the snow tapers off Saturday afternoon. Since the models have been highly variable, and the start time for the adverse winter weather is not until late Friday night, will hold off on an issuance of a watch at this time, though if 12z models runs come in just as wet, high probability that a watch will be issued later today. Right now, not seeing much potential for a period of freezing rain or sleet to occur. Highest potential for snow/sleet combo appears across our far southeast counties. If this occurs farther north/west, this would cut into snow totals. Temperatures Saturday will struggle to reach freezing most locations. Temperatures Saturday night will drop into the teens to near 20. Thus, what is on the roads Saturday afternoon will likely remain, and make driving treacherous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 DG on wyff 4, must be the Glenn Burns of GSP!!!!! SMDH! Just showed a model, don't know where he even dug it up from!? Shows about an hour of snow Friday night, and that is IT!! While the Fox met, showed all possibilities, even showed the NAM and RPM, and said we could get 2-6", and are under a WSW! DGs model gives us 0!? They are all hyping the cold to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 QPF going up on the GFS looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Queencitywx said: QPF going up on the GFS looks like QPF has doubled this run IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 This may be one of those rare times that being South of 85, could be a slight advantage in GSP area! I may get more than Travelers Rest, as it looks now! Last time that happened was March 1 2009! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 BOOM!!!! 6z GFS is an I-85 special! Over 10 inches Charlotte, Greensboro, RDU! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Dang!! 8.5" for ATL and 10.5 for CLT! That is amazeballs!! Well... looks like we're back to where the GFS was (almost) the other day. BTW Mack... some mets were showing the RPM model, it was the only giving me basically nothing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I sure would love to see what the EPS had to say. Maybe someone with access will wake up soon?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I like the look for the Triangle; foot plus. Not being pessimistic, but if we cut the totals in half we still have a good storm. Seen too many times the models showing too much or not accounting for some mixing. Could be different this time but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 0z EPS mean looked much better for everyone. It was up over an inch across the board. Looked much improved back over N GA and the upstate of SC. Over 6 inches now for RDU north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The 6Z suite was pure awesomeness. However, I echo what Falls just said. Past experience suggests that one should expect about half of what these clown maps spit out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I like the look for the Triangle; foot plus. Not being pessimistic, but if we cut the totals in half we still have a good storm. Seen too many times the models showing too much or not accounting for some mixing. Could be different this time but.... Yeah, from now on I'm focusing on the snow depth maps and cutting 1-2 inches off to be more realistic. Latest NAM is 7.4 and GFS is 8.7 for RDU. Trim off about 2 inches for BL issues or not as much qpf and you have a good 5-6 inch snow. I think we would all be happy with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Man 6z nam and gfs starting to increase qpf production on the northwest side for Frosty and I. Hope to see the trend continue for both myself and everyone on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I was awoken by the dog and decided to glance at the 6z GFS...that was a mistake lol. Looks like 5-8" across northwest Atlanta. Amazing. NAM got way better as well. FFC issued a Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 329 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...MUCH OF NORTH AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HAMILTON TO FORSYTH TO LEXINGTON. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES. * TIMING...BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AS A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...BECOMING ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL END FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SLICK MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlountCountyALwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 In that slotted area between central and north AL. Maybe .5 to 1 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 can anyone load southernwx.com? im having issuesI was finally able to get in. Sent from my VS870 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Here are some pipe busting temps Monday morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 ^Thanks. I know wrong thread but kinda related...with leftover snow-pack and arctic air 6z GFS is DANGEROUS 33 degree rain NC/VA area on Tuesday. No doubt some icing issues for some if it does not trend warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 hours ago, ncskywarn said: DT'S 1st call map. I actually like DT's map. Funny to say this but it's the conservative approach at this time. Edit: Maybe a little more in the NW because of the latest model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, JoshM said: Here are some pipe busting temps Monday morning! GFS has temperatures down to near 10 in Atlanta multiple nights in a row. If downtown got 6-8" and had those temps to follow it would be until mid-week before things got anywhere close to normal. The tick north continues on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, JoshM said: Here are some pipe busting temps Monday morning! WOW at the -2 low at Shetleys house! i thought there were gonna be no temps lower than 35 till February and no snow till February!! #WHOOPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Look at those color drop offs between ATL and GSP! GFS's warm nose is going to kill some accumulation numbers through there. I've seen it time and time again. That thing better stay away from my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 42 minutes ago, Poimen said: The 6Z suite was pure awesomeness. However, I echo what Falls just said. Past experience suggests that one should expect about half of what these clown maps spit out. I dunno arent most of these maps 10:1 ratios? Someone posted a map yesterday suggesting ratios closer to 13-15:1 for a lot of central and eastern NC.....most models are saying around 1" QPF or so IMBY and with this setup thats not terribly unreasonable and if ratios are 12:1 then 8-12" isnt far off. laast Euro run using a 15:1 ratio...so half this and thats probably closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: I dunno arent most of these maps 10:1 ratios? Someone posted a map yesterday suggesting ratios closer to 13-15:1 for a lot of central and eastern NC.....most models are saying around 1" QPF or so IMBY and with this setup thats not terribly unreasonable and if ratios are 12:1 then 8-12" isnt far off. I'm not saying they're necessarily wrong, but just saying that past experience has taught me to temper my expectations somewhere below the clowns. Hope you score big down east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wow at the 6z GEFS! It followed the op and really increased totals across the board. At least 4 inch mean for all of NC, and now parts of NE GA and the upstate of SC. I'm guessing the ensembles are locked in. This is probably the last run where we should put much emphases on the ensembles. Time to depend on the operationals and hi-res models. Earlier 0z New 6z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GSP Honking a bit more for the I85 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Poimen said: I'm not saying they're necessarily wrong, but just saying that past experience has taught me to temper my expectations somewhere below the clowns. Hope you score big down east! Oh I agree that clown maps are called that for a reason, but then again every once in a awhile we do get hammered.....I would think a general 3-6" for most of NC with a band of 6-10" is a safe legit expectation.....but if this bust it will be to the high side I think.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, packfan98 said: Wow at the 6z GEFS! It followed the op and really increased totals across the board. At least 4 inch mean for all of NC, and now parts of NE GA and the upstate of SC. I'm guessing the ensembles are locked in. This is probably the last run where we should put much emphases on the ensembles. Time to depend on the operationals and hi-res models. Yep, it's about now-casting time, and radar watching! Almost!! This has been a great storm to track! Let's keep the good mojo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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