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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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11 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Its not just with snow it happens in rain events as well it seems. The finger of precip extends way out in front of the system and coming from the direction it is usually hits ne ga and upstate. Not sure if its the upslope affect or what.

Had a good example of this , the January '11 event! Strong band to about Augusta to CAE, some 40dbz returns , long before the main precip 

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Just now, PackGrad05 said:

I chalk this up to the enormous spread of the ensembles.  The EURO ENSEMBLE has a spread from 0" to 6+" for RDU...   equal chance of any scenario...

This has bust potential all over it with a different track or 850s not verifying, which I'm not sold on yet.

Where is 850 currently progged to go?

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6 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

The SREF plumes are still looking pretty anemic for a lot of areas.  We're talking about a mean of around an inch for CLT and RDU, and 1.5" in GSO.  We'll see if they turn for the better tonight.

 

sref plumes gave me well over a foot  inside 24hrs in the 2015 storm and i got 4", dont trust them like i used to.

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I  was actually there for that 1992 one.  I don't believe it was forecast well at all but was on a weekend.

That must have been quite a memorable storm for the Atlanta area. It is still quite challenging to forecast winter precipitation in Atlanta (I'd probably be more conservative than the GFS with a 2"-4" idea right now). Fortunately, today's models are well ahead of what was available then. It will be interesting to see how the storm plays out as it moves across the Southeast. 

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13 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

The SREF plumes are still looking pretty anemic for a lot of areas.  We're talking about a mean of around an inch for CLT and RDU, and 1.5" in GSO.

I don't think it's anything to be worried about. It's generally  underestimates at this lead from my experience...WRF-ARW and WRF-NMM are pretty awful at this lead outside of 48 hours. I'd wait until tomorrow night or so to utilize the SREF guidance. Just my two cents. 

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9 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

18z Arpege looks good. It spread precip a little farther west in to the NC mountains/foothills compared to the 12z run. 

 

Interesting to note that the arpege and the Icon both initialized their 18z runs with the northern stream further west than where the gfs or nam had it for their initialization frames.  I think this forced the s/w to dig further southwest and gave it time to phase more with the northern stream. Compare on the Meteocentre site.  Very interesting.

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7 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

You can see the GFS getting juicier and ticking north over the last 6 runs as well. Nothing major, but enough to throw precip further back towards the mntns.

5db297c4-4b3d-49a0-8249-e0fdebf31fff.gif

I think I have a 7-9" bullseye right over my house! It's tiny and looks like the path our tornado took!?! Coincidence, I think not

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First 2 frame are the initialization frames for the ARPEGE and ICON. Last is the NAM. All 18z runs.  You can see how they have the northern jet further west and south than the NAM (and the GFS).  The models overall have been trending with this movement since yesterday.  This difference is forcing the s/w further southwest which changes the timing and gives it room to go neutral tilt by 60 hrs.  Icon goes full neg tilt by 72 hrs.

iyxTiNr.gif

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2 minutes ago, Wow said:

First 2 frame are the initialization frames for the ARPEGE and ICON. Last is the NAM. All 18z runs.  You can see how they have the northern jet further west and south than the NAM (and the GFS).  The models overall have been trending with this movement since yesterday.  This difference is forcing the s/w further southwest which changes the timing and gives it room to go neutral tilt by 60 hrs.  Icon goes full neg tilt by 72 hrs.

iyxTiNr.gif

A Neutral Tilt would be amazing.  A boy can only hope.

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22 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

You can see the GFS getting juicier and ticking north over the last 6 runs as well. Nothing major, but enough to throw precip further back towards the mntns.

5db297c4-4b3d-49a0-8249-e0fdebf31fff.gif

This looks about right to me. Living in Bham, we usually get this dry slot where it goes above and below us. 

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