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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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Just now, MotoWeatherman said:

This cat is far from being resolved.  Just rewind back to Monday and look at the posts and model solutions that were popping out.  Fast forward two more days (Friday) and I have a feeling significant shifts are still to come regarding jackpot areas.

Just look at the Ensembles, still a huge spread.  NAM is looking a little like the GFS  to me.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
334 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2017

...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...

Confidence is increasing for widespread winter precipitation late
Friday through early Saturday. While it is still early to
specify precipitation type or accumulations for any one location,
the current forecast calls for mostly snow possibly mixed with
rain at the onset of the event. Currently, the greatest potential
for accumulating snow is along and north of a Columbus to Macon to
Augusta line.

A swath of heavier snow is currently forecast for the I20 and I85
corridor in west central Georgia extending northeast along the
I85 corridor through northeast Georgia. This includes the
northeast Georgia mountains.

Within the band of heavier snow, accumulations of 2-3 inches,
with locally higher amounts are possible. Far northwest Georgia
currently has forecasted accumulations up to an inch, however,
confidence is not as high across far northwest Georgia and amounts
could go higher. For areas on either side of a line from
Lagrange to Forsyth to Eatonton to Augusta, up to an inch is
possible, however, more rain mixed with snow is possible and may
lower overall accumulations.

While it is still to early to pinpoint exact onset, precipitation
is expected to start across northwest Georgia during the afternoon
hours on Friday and continue to spread southeast through Friday
night and into Saturday morning. As we approach the onset of this
event, we hope to provide a better timing estimate.

Travel may become difficult late Friday afternoon across north
Georgia spreading south and east with the wintry precipitation,
continuing into Saturday morning. With high temperatures on
Saturday only expected to reach the mid 30s north of the I85
corridor, travel could remain difficult through the day Saturday
into Sunday...particularly in the north Georgia mountains. Stay
tuned for further updates from the National Weather Service or
local officials regarding travel impacts in your area.

Currently, no watch or warning has been issued, however, as we
move closer to the event a watch may be issued for portions of
north and central Georgia.
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Just now, LovingGulfLows said:

The NAM keeps developing a back end SW-NE band of snow in Alabama and GA right around hour 60 through 66.

Like I said last night, this is extremely similar to the huge rain shield just a couple days ago, patterns tend to follow tracks obviously, and at that time it rained for hours upon hours in Atlanta with an extreme cutoff to the NW  

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2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

 

Nothing more than 2 or 3 inches though maybe a little more in higher elevations. Jackpot ENC once again some 6 inch amounts but CLT wont like that run doesnt even have 1 inch there

Better than the goose egg it showed previously for majority of WNC. Trends. 

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2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

NAM looks really anemic to me, dont see more than 4 inch amounts anywhere through 66

The 2 models showing the riskiest setup are the NAM and the CMC (models with the least stream separation).  Good news is that it's the long range NAM and the CMC.  Bad new is, it's not out of the realm of possibility, though low chance.  The CMC did make a little progress in the 12z run though

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1 minute ago, Cheeznado said:

It's all about trends with the NAM at this juncture. Remember the NAM is still not that accurate until we hit hour 48 or so.

I'm just ready to see that precip void between the TN band and the middle GA band fill in a bit.  It will stink to see more snow just to my north AND south.

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2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

 

Nothing more than 2 or 3 inches though maybe a little more in higher elevations. Jackpot ENC once again some 6 inch amounts but CLT wont like that run doesnt even have 1 inch there

If I'm not mistaken, one of the mets here has said the NAM is struggling with precip amounts recently. It's more or less the trend that we're watching with it.

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12z Euro gives me 0.8" qpf at temps between 30 and 32. Verbatim 7-9 inches. EPS avg is around 3-4" for my area.

Latest NAM has me at 5", 12z GFS has about 1-2" for me but with a bullseye 50 miles to the south.

I'm getting more confident, but being in extreme SEVA you can never get your hopes up.

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5 minutes ago, SteveVa said:

12z Euro gives me 0.8" qpf at temps between 30 and 32. Verbatim 7-9 inches. EPS avg is around 3-4" for my area.

Latest NAM has me at 5", 12z GFS has about 1-2" for me but with a bullseye 50 miles to the south.

I'm getting more confident, but being in extreme SEVA you can never get your hopes up.

Your sitting pretty for sure.. If the GFS gets on board I think you should get 4 inches easily perhaps a lot more. Snow down there is fun but watch out for the crazy drivers!

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27 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I'm going with 3-6" for GSP.

my experience living my entire life in to GSP area...I'd say this will be about a 2-3" for GSP. Not complaining.

Typically, these storms that come across the TN valley and then take a nose dive, then gets itself back together off the coast...just doesn't seem to have enough moisture for our neck of the woods. Those mountains have a tremendous affect on our weather...more than most want to appreciate.

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