BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd WPC is not including the UKMET in its blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I know this isn't the same setup, but I can't help but remember the huge Feb '14 storm in regards to the GFS vs EURO battle. GFS had it rolling south and out to sea in the 3-5 day range while the EURO amped it and brought it up the coast instead. We all know what happened there. EURO nailed that storm from 6 days out and clobbered the GFS. BUT this is a new day, new setup, new storm, but I feel like a lot of folks are totally discounting the EURO solution altogether. IMO, that's a bad decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 As it stands right now, it looks like the bullseye is around Raleigh and south and east from there... however some of what is south/east of Raleigh will be sleet to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: UKIE Deserves to be crowned champion and gets the belt after this one of it hangs on and verifies.been tracking this storm hard for over a week now and it has owned every other model, espeacilly the 5h pattern cold press last week when they all dropped it but the ukie. Also 1st to nail lp track along gulf Coast off ne florida coast. Great disco guys keep it up. Hate being swamped at work on days like today 4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd WPC is not including the UKMET in its blend. I'll take the WPC for 1000 Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd WPC is not including the UKMET in its blend. But 1) They are basing that on the more amped 00z run, and 2) as typical with WPC, they are more concerned about what is happening off the NE Coast than they are with what's going on down in Dixie THE 00Z UKMET WITH A VERY STRONG JET ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT...DEEPENS THE LOW AND CYCLONICLY TURNS IT TOWARD THE COAST/NEAR NW NOVA SCOTIA WHICH FITS WITH A TYPICAL BIAS AND LEADS TO AN OUTLYING SOLUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 ^ Actually, you and I are both wrong QC as they are going with a non-UKMet blend for the system going thru the south on Thursday. Here's what they say about our storm, but granted, it's prior to the 12z runs coming in AS SUCH CONFIDENCE OVERALL HAS REDUCED WITH INCREASED SPREAD. CONTINUITY AND GENERAL MIDDLE GROUND WOULD SUGGEST SOMETHING CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECENS MEAN. AS THE UKMET IS A BIT AMPLIFIED BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE ECMWF...AND THE 12Z NAM IS A BIT FLATTER BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFS/GEFS WILL SUPPORT A 12Z NAM/00Z UKMET BLEND OF MASS FIELDS AS A COMPROMISE TO REPRESENT THE 00Z ECENS MEAN. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: But 1) They are basing that on the more amped 00z run, and 2) as typical with WPC, they are more concerned about what is happening off the NE Coast than they are with what's going on down in Dixie THE 00Z UKMET WITH A VERY STRONG JET ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT...DEEPENS THE LOW AND CYCLONICLY TURNS IT TOWARD THE COAST/NEAR NW NOVA SCOTIA WHICH FITS WITH A TYPICAL BIAS AND LEADS TO AN OUTLYING SOLUTION. Yeah, 12Z seemed more reasonable and less amped, but had a better system. Hopefully they consider that tonight in their update. I think we'll get a good idea here in about 30 minutes where we stand. I think the EURO makes a move one way or another...toward GFS or Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: ^ Actually, you and I are both wrong QC as they are going with a non-UKMet blend for the system going thru the south on Thursday. Here's what they say about our storm, but granted, it's prior to the 12z runs coming in AS SUCH CONFIDENCE OVERALL HAS REDUCED WITH INCREASED SPREAD. CONTINUITY AND GENERAL MIDDLE GROUND WOULD SUGGEST SOMETHING CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECENS MEAN. AS THE UKMET IS A BIT AMPLIFIED BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE ECMWF...AND THE 12Z NAM IS A BIT FLATTER BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFS/GEFS WILL SUPPORT A 12Z NAM/00Z UKMET BLEND OF MASS FIELDS AS A COMPROMISE TO REPRESENT THE 00Z ECENS MEAN. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. I can no longer say I've only been wrong once. I'll take that blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I love how the board quiets down just before the Euro drops..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malak05 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: I love how the board quiets down just before the Euro drops..... This everyone is on pins and needles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: I love how the board quiets down just before the Euro drops..... It's like the cone of silence from Twister. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KENW0728 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 If this is one for the banter page, I apologize in advance. As I'm new to the area, what will the impact of 2-3 inches of snow have on ATL? I'm in West Cobb, so I've heard horror stories of winter storms of the past. With the cold sticking around, will roads be safe by Monday? Schools, other services? I am from SE Wisconsin, so the school I taught at was in session with 6-8 inches--may have delayed the start of the school day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, leedev said: confidence is high in SC and GA. Euro modeling has been inconsistent past couple of years. Prove it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, Queencitywx said: Prove it. Don't feed the trolls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malak05 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, KENW0728 said: If this is one for the banter page, I apologize in advance. As I'm new to the area, what will the impact of 2-3 inches of snow have on ATL? I'm in West Cobb, so I've heard horror stories of winter storms of the past. With the cold sticking around, will roads be safe by Monday? Schools, other services? I am from SE Wisconsin, so the school I taught at was in session with 6-8 inches--may have delayed the start of the school day. Born and raised on the west side of GA It will depend on temps after storm and sunlight... If temps don't recover and if cloud cover is available the snow will stay for several days and with not much wind melted snow will refreeze at night and make a nice ice wonderland. A inch of snow in this setup is enough to put the breaks on the majority of the SE for a few days. The more snow and colder temps the longer the impact here. A 4 inch snowfall with low temps has ability to shut down the city for close to a work week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 One other thing about this is how cold it gets afterward- the 12Z GFS has Atlanta with a low near 13 Monday AM and 3 days in a row in the teens. First time in the teens here since 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malak05 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, Cheeznado said: One other thing about this is how cold it gets afterward- the 12Z GFS has Atlanta with a low near 13 Monday AM and 3 days in a row in the teens. First time in the teens here since 2015. That would shut down the city for nearly the whole work week for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Given that we live in the South and are used to disappointment, my rule (FWIW) is to take all the model runs within the last 12 hours, cut each of their snow totals in half, and then go with the lowest one. Half of the 12z GFS in my area is 1", so that is my RDU call for now. The potential obviously exists for more, but we're 3 days out. A lot can still go wrong. Does anyone have the 12z UKMET qpf/snowfall through 96hr by any chance? Not going to lie, the 72hr panel posted earlier was tantalizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, Cheeznado said: One other thing about this is how cold it gets afterward- the 12Z GFS has Atlanta with a low near 13 Monday AM and 3 days in a row in the teens. First time in the teens here since 2015. As the old saying goes, "It gets cold after snowstorms, and warm after ice storms" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Bufkit drops 5.9" at CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, malak05 said: That would shut down the city for nearly the whole work week for sure Highs Sunday and Monday 30 or below on the GFS. yes, snow jam 2017 with no school or work for at least 2-3 days if we do get at least 2" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Looks like GSP loses the first .15 to mixing according to bufkit. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Can i have a link to Bufkit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: One other thing about this is how cold it gets afterward- the 12Z GFS has Atlanta with a low near 13 Monday AM and 3 days in a row in the teens. First time in the teens here since 2015. I'm assuming if there is a snowpack it will be well into the single digits ? I hit 0 degrees in Jan 2014 with a snowpack. First time I can ever remember being that cold. And we were 10 degrees colder than forecast ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Bufkit drops 5.9" at CLT Sold! Where do I check out? What is bufkit based on? Sounds similar to what the Ukie would put out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just a tick more stream sep than last run at 30. Pac wave looks healthy in N Cali Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Can i have a link to Bufkit? http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kgmu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, SnowNiner said: Sold! Where do I check out? What is bufkit based on? Sounds similar to what the Ukie would put out. Bufkit is an interpretation of the parameters set by the GFS extracted data.http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kclt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Looks like GSP loses the first .15 to mixing according to bufkit. we'll see. I really expect that, especially if this is coming in Friday afternoon!? I guess best part would be bulk of precip would come down overnight, and that always helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kgmu Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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