SteveVa Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: I don't think the low itself moved NW, but the precip shield certainly did. Maybe about 50 miles or so. CLT now in the 4-5" range. I'd call that a huge win at this point. Exactly, I'm pretty sure when hurricane Matthew was unfolding some more experienced people around here commented that GFS still has a problem with sharp NW precip cutoffs and they were right as the model trended much wetter for my area. I don't know is it fixed, but it's still worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Just curious, where are you guys looking at the UK and CMC this early? My sources do not update for another 1/2 hour. CMC sfc maps come out early on StormVista (h5 comes later) You can get the UKMet early at this link, but it only begins at hr96, nothing before that...and it will ruin your neck trying to view it sideways on the page http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=60&carte=1021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Lookout said: nc folks will like this one...the dwd-icon drops 0.50 to 0.75 for a pretty big area with almost an inch liquid in the mountains. looks cold enough aloft at least for much of north ga and sc too. \ How accurate is this model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said: I think it moved away. The GFS has been consistent through ATL on the last four runs and the CMC has only decreased it's action over the area. It might be different for your spot. The risk with the GFS is that it tends to be consistently bad when its off. I will say if the GFS has not moved by this time tomorrow I'd be more certain. For now I really want to see the NAM/UKMET/Euro join it soon and the RGEM by tomorrow late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, colonel717 said: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=dwd_icon&stn=PNMPR&hh=000&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=00&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=000&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=2016&mm=12&dd=10&mode=archives&stn2_type=anal&run=00&date_type=dateo What model is this- produced by whom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: What model is this- produced by whom? Looks like it was developed by a German company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: What model is this- produced by whom? German model it appears. https://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/dcmip-2012/icon-mpi-dwd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: What model is this- produced by whom? The Germans, I think. They're pretty efficient folks. I trust them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: How accurate is this model? I haven't heard of it either but this is the meteogram for Raleigh (top) and Atlanta (bottom). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: I haven't heard of it either but this is the meteogram for Raleigh (top) and Atlanta (bottom). That's a foot of snow for Raleigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, FallsLake said: That's a foot of snow for Raleigh... LOL...GFS gives us 1-2", CMC 4-6" and German model gives us a foot. I am going with the model that shows us the least snow...thats almost always how it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: I haven't heard of it either but this is the meteogram for Raleigh (top) and Atlanta (bottom). So the metoegram has Atlanta getting .47 inches of precip. accumulation when 850 dip below freezing while Raleigh gets nearly an inch of precip. accumulation when 850s are below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, griteater said: To your question, no. On the second part, I have pretty high confidence now that we'll get precip from CLT to RDU Seems like the consensus is the precip min starts at CLT and increases east toward RDU. I think RDU cashes in with this one. Whatever CLT gets I think RDU gets 50% more with the Atlantic fetch. Hopefully we can get a bit of a stronger system with the warm gulf waters, etc to tick up these totals just a bit. 4 solid inches is always my goal. Just enough to cover the grass and make the street disappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 It is kind of funny that two days ago people were saying they'd much rather have the Euro show high totals instead of the GFS and now we've gotten our wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, chapelhillwx said: The Germans, I think. They're pretty efficient folks. I trust them. What has ever gone wrong when you trust the germans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 26 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: This is the 6th run in a row that has Atlanta at least 4". Biggest change is that earlier we were more on the northern fringe of the heaviest snow, now right in the middle. Rooting for you guys in GA! Very encouraging with 6 runs in a row! So many times especially in the Atlanta area you miss out on almost everything while just to your northeast where we are located in SC we will get hit. When was the last 4+ snow event in your area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowNiner said: Seems like the consensus is the precip min starts at CLT and increases east toward RDU. I think RDU cashes in with this one. Whatever CLT gets I think RDU gets 50% more with the Atlantic fetch. Hopefully we can get a bit of a stronger system with the warm gulf waters, etc to tick up these totals just a bit. 4 solid inches is always my goal. Just enough to cover the grass and make the street disappear. Temps and NW trend still my #1 concern FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 nc folks will like this one...the dwd-icon drops 0.50 to 0.75 for a pretty big area with almost an inch liquid in the mountains. looks cold enough aloft at least for much of north ga and sc too. \ Finally a model that we NC people can believe in thanks for posting lookout!!! LolSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 FWIW (not much), The 06z NAVGEM was bomb similar to the DICON but maybe even more wet. The 12z is out to 24hrs and it appears even more separated/ in tact with the shortwave out west compared to it's earlier run. Get your popcorn ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, chapelhillwx said: It is kind of funny that two days ago people were saying they'd much rather have the Euro show high totals instead of the GFS and now we've gotten our wish. Exactly and still people are saying trust the GFS it has been consistent when a few days ago it was showing almost 3 ft of snow in NC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishbfm Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The latest GFS 10:1 totals seem crazy for ENC...I'll keep expecting a northern move until proved otherwise. (which I'd love in Raleigh) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said: Rooting for you guys in GA! Very encouraging with 6 runs in a row! So many times especially in the Atlanta area you miss out on almost everything while just to your northeast where we are located in SC we will get hit. When was the last 4+ snow event in your area? For ATL, it'd have to be the January 9-10, 2011 storm. Great memories from that storm! Actually...KATL didn't get to 4'' officially. But they came close at 3.7''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: What has ever gone wrong when you trust the germans? German engineering in da house....oh snap, dog. I'd really like to know what the Ukie looks like in regard to precip. GFS and EURO are still pretty light for the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 It looks like UKMET QPF for CLT is around half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, Queencitywx said: It looks like UKMET QPF for CLT is around half an inch. But there would be more after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The Ukmet looks like a decent track for ATL - Athens - Greenville - Charlotte - RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, griteater said: But there would be more after that Yep. Good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 could be virga, but there is precip beginning east of dallas right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sakau2007 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The last 4"+ snow in Birmingham was in March of 1993. The last 3"+ snow in Birmingham was in January of 2000. 17 years since I've seen 3 inches in my backyard. Cmon. I'm long overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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