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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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8 minutes ago, griteater said:

Mac a good rough estimate for the snow line in our area in this setup is 543, so a little south of that 540 line.  Of course, looking at soundings as we get closer is the best course of action for a particular location

I like our back yards right now. 

There was some significant big dogs on the euro ensemble plots. 11 of them were 6"+.  Also, if we get one of these big dogs, I think we have the best shot at a below zero morning for the first time since 1985.

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4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I like our back yards right now. 

There was some significant big dogs on the euro ensemble plots. 11 of them were 6"+.  Also, if we get one of these big dogs, I think we have the best shot at a below zero morning for the first time since 1985.

 

Very much agree on the cold air afterward. Lastest GFS has KFQD around 11 on 1/9.. 

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CAE holds serve :)

 

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Made only minor changes to current forecast(raised pops slightly)
regarding potential winter storm...

Significant differences remain in the model guidance
including large spread in pops Friday through Saturday(timing
issue) and timing of the advection of colder air into the region.
So uncertainty remains in the evolution of possible storm system
which may produce wintry weather for central SC and the CSRA.
However...Believe there is a moderately high threat for wintry
precipitation somewhere in the region Friday night and especially
the Saturday morning time frame.

Models continue to indicate a large scale upper trough will
develop over the eastern CONUS over the weekend and a modified
arctic air mass will eventually settle over the area. Short wave
trough moving from the southern Plains Friday into the lower
Mississippi valley Friday night will trigger weak cyclogenesis in
the northern Gulf of Mexico. Isentropic lift/moisture flux across
the region Friday into Saturday. Nam and ECMWF stronger/faster
with moisture flux during the day Friday than GFS. Will continue
forecast for scattered light rain mainly during the afternoon and
into the early evening. The question that remains is how fast cold
advection will develop Friday night as weak low pressure moves
across central or north Florida to the Carolina coast Saturday
morning. The ECMWF is further north with surface low than CMC and
GFS and therefore warmer solution. GFS cold advection stronger
late Friday night. The model consensus continues to indicate a
threat for winter weather late Friday night and Saturday with a
change over from rain to snow/sleet at some point. Higher
confidence for snow from CAE to CLT. Less confidence across the
CSRA and southeast Midlands where change over may be delayed if
low tracks closer to the coast and 850mb low further north.

For now we show highs in the mid and upper 30s
Saturday, but it`s very possible temperatures will remain nearly
steady or fall below freezing through the day. While there is the
potential for accumulating snowfall, it`s still too early to
determine amounts. However, impacts to travel are possible across
the area. The precipitation ends rather quickly Saturday
afternoon as the low pulls away to the northeast.
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7 minutes ago, snowinnc said:

Even though I have been a member here for a few years I'm still a novice at reading the maps. Living in central North Carolina should we have more of a concern about this system ticking more NW?   It seems like in the past things have continually gone northwest to the point where it completely goes too far north but it seems like no one else is concerned quick. Are my concerns legitimate or should most of the major movement be done already?

Usually OK if you're in the western half of the Piedmont, however it can turn into a battleground with temps in the eastern half of the Piedmont as warmer air is allowed in from the south. This is why I-85 usually becomes synonymous. 

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6 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I like our back yards right now. 

There was some significant big dogs on the euro ensemble plots. 11 of them were 6"+.  Also, if we get one of these big dogs, I think we have the best shot at a below zero morning for the first time since 1985.

I think we have a good shot at some snow.  I'm worried that this storm overall is as grit mentioned, a "late bloomer" and belongs to eastern nc/sc.  All the models kinda show that with the bullseyes way out east when the storm is in the Atlantic. For clt, we've got to get a good fetch of snow while the storm is in the gulf to our southwest and south.  Once it gets to the Atlantic, it's all the eastern counties IMO unless a deform band sets up, and there's no way to tell if we get that or not at this stage. If I'm guessing right now I'd say we're at 1-3 inches tops, unless the models start correcting.  I'd be rooting for the GFS to trend NW another 100 miles and keep the temp profiles. 

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3 minutes ago, TiltedStorm said:

Climo says that the system will hug the panhandle. Haven't seen the trend yet. Anybody think it's time to look at soil temps?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Way to early and I can tell you with high confidence they want be an issue. Everyone has a nice clear cold night ahead.

Nam may try to get a clue this run and nam us

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These events will push north in the models 90% of the time. if North East North Carolina is in the bullseye right now I would expect Northeastern VA and even Southeastern Maryland to be the bulls eye by this time Friday morning in the models.  I still think alot may change in the models today.

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3 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

SE VA/NE NC looks like the place to be at this point, IMO. I'd feel good if I were in Elizabeth City, Norfolk, etc.

Totally agree with you. I think areas a little inland like Suffolk down to Ahoskie to Rocky Mount will jackpot unless it keeps trending NW. They usually do very well with late blooming systems like this one

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This thing has I-85 special written all over it. I would say that the way the GFS is trending towards the EURO and the GFS consistently handling the cold air better, this thing will slightly outperform climo and shift the snow line 30-50 miles to the south of I-85. 

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1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

I'm starting to get concerned with boundary layer temps over the Savannah river valley friday night. The GFS has insisted on keeping this strip of area as rain until about midnight, which is really cutting down on totals.  It seems odd to me with 850's so cold, especially when it's showing places like atlanta and columbia dropping below freezing very fast. Hopefully it's wrong.

I haven't had much time to post much lately but i too have been watching this closely. This is my lookout screwzone bubble in full effect. For those that aren't aware, it's when high pressure is northwest of the mountains which initially causes downslope flow and warming ahead of the system while at the same time causes an area of convergence (northeast winds over the upstate and northwest winds over ga) in the upper savannah river valley in the low levels and sometimes even as high as 850mb...which causes this area to be the very last place to get low level cold air advection. It can be absolutely maddening and can seriously screw this area...and it's happened a number of times. Some of my most painful memories of screw jobs involve heavy rain at 35 or 36 degrees while it was snowing to the east, north, and west..and even southwest...and a bubble of warm air up to 850mb sitting over me that never moved or was overcame.

 The good news is that the models do eventually evaporate it (which those other events the models never did and they were right) and   that wetbulb temps are just low enough off the surface that precip falling into it should allow a changeover even though temps/dewpoints at the surface are pretty high...but should drop to 32/33 after a while.  But the bad news totals are likely to be impacted because of this. Likewise any additional warming would really hurt/delay any changeover. 

In order to avoid this, this area needs to have more high pressure to the northeast and northeast low level flow sooner ahead of the system or a stronger push of cold air from the northwest tomorrow/tomorrow night. 

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2 minutes ago, Lookout said:

I haven't had much time to post much lately but i too have been watching this closely. This is my lookout screwzone bubble in full effect. For those that aren't aware, it's when high pressure is northwest of the mountains which initially causes downslope flow and warming ahead of the system while at the same time causes an area of convergence (northeast winds over the upstate and northwest winds over ga) in the upper savannah river valley in the low levels and sometimes even as high as 850mb...which causes this area to be the very last place to get low level cold air advection. It can be absolutely maddening and can seriously screw this area...and it's happened a number of times. Some of my most painful memories of screw jobs involve heavy rain at 35 or 36 degrees while it was snowing to the east, north, and west..and even southwest...and a bubble of warm air up to 850mb sitting over me that never moved or was overcame.

 The good news is that the models do eventually evaporate it (which those other events the models never did and they were right) and   that wetbulb temps are just low enough off the surface that precip falling into it should allow a changeover even though temps/dewpoints at the surface are pretty high...but should drop to 32/33 after a while.  But the bad news totals are likely to be impacted because of this. Likewise any additional warming would really hurt/delay any changeover. 

In order to avoid this, this area needs to have more high pressure to the northeast and northeast low level flow sooner ahead of the system or a stronger push of cold air from the northwest tomorrow/tomorrow night. 

Thank you for this.  This is the best explanation for this I have read yet, and I'm sure others will appreciate.  

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3 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

Look for the NAM to hold the energy stronger, longer in future runs.  I've seen it many times.

Agreed. This is classic NAM.... holding the energy longer and stronger within the first 40 hours or so then start to loose it.... As the storm gets closer I'd expect the NAM to hold it longer as well. I believe by 0z tonight we should have a much better idea of what will happen.

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