packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The 12z para was practically off Boca...sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 GFS and Canadian still showing 4 to 6 here, and the GFS has been shifting NW with each run. Have to see what the Euro does next, but that would still be a solid storm. If the NW trend continues it could be even bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 UKMet not as suppressed as I thought. This would be snow from upstate to Raleigh and NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: UKMet not as suppressed as I thought. This would be snow from upstate to Raleigh and NW The precip maps are available to 72. I can't tell much from tau 72 at all really when comparing to the GFS to try and guess where things go precip wise thereafter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: UKMet not as suppressed as I thought. This would be snow from upstate to Raleigh and NW West of GFS if you compare...not bad for 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 UKMet precip at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Bottom line, GFS and UKMet are both good runs storm wise. Southern crowd in our forum would want GFS, middle to northern crowd would want UKMet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: UKMet precip at 72 ok now that might lighten my funk a bit, if the temps are right and the 10:1 ratio is applied, I could be getting between 5-7.5" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Bottom line, GFS and UKMet are both good runs storm wise. Southern crowd in our forum would want GFS, middle to northern crowd would want UKMet What do you think....12z at 96 vs 0z at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: ok now that might lighten my funk a bit, if the temps are right and the 10:1 ratio is applied, I could be getting between 5-7.5" of snow Nope, that's in millimeters of liquid equivalent lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: ok now that might lighten my funk a bit, if the temps are right and the 10:1 ratio is applied, I could be getting between 5-7.5" of snow I believe that is 5mm of precip not .5". So 2" or so from that frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, chapelhillwx said: Nope, that's in millimeters of liquid equivalent lol. Ell oh ell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, chapelhillwx said: Nope, that's in millimeters of liquid equivalent lol. -facepalm-.......I might as well just go to bed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Nice to hear the ukmet wasn't a disaster. I usually believe the NW trend but I was really feeling like us in the upper SE were going to be smelling the snow to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 16 minutes ago, CoreyandFrosty said: Yea. I use to post at Talkweather but it's broken now. I don't think it's ever going to be fixed. I love this website too though. They got it up and running again except now it's southernwx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 GFS Ensemble mean looks ever so slightly less sharp with the trough in the SE, but precip and temps are very similar to previous run. A little heavier precip in E SC. Looks like a little less ridging out west. Sfc low off the coast slightly weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 It stinks that we're now in the time frame when it's almost impossible for big dog scenarios to show up. It's almost like the ingredients that create big snows for the SE can't exist inside of 120 hours.That's entirely not true, I'll never forget what the models did Christmas '10 in a similar situation. I'll never throw in the towel for a big dog until the SW is on the West coast. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: GFS Ensemble mean looks ever so slightly less sharp with the trough in the SE, but precip and temps are very similar to previous run. A little heavier precip in E SC. Looks like a little less ridging out west. Sfc low off the coast slightly weaker got a pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The friggin NAVGEM is wetter than the NAM and Canadian in GA and SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 29 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I don't know why we even take models seriously past 4 days or so. Once you get within 3 or 4 days then that's when reality hits. Anything past 4 days is purely entertainment and not to be taken literally. Exactly! Then again, no one should take these model runs "literally." In contrast, one needs to realize we will never be able to sample the entire atmosphere, thus it's unreasonable for us to expect any individual model run to verify 100%. Moreover, it's conceivable that one of the 64 individual runs of the long range (384 hr. GFS) might even closely verify simply because of the number of subsequent runs during that period...not necessarily because it foresaw the dynamical evolution 16 days in advance, for example. I realize I'm not sharing any groundbreaking information (nor directing this post towards you, specifically), but rather a reminder that these models are fallible and one should anticipate subtle to major changes as we get closer to a prospective event; especially given that the models will contain more substantive data and be within an ever diminishing lead time. For the aforementioned reasons, it's important that the general populace understands that these model runs are used as valuable guidance to forecasters (aren't the forecast), and that even then, there's no such thing as a forecast that is "set in stone." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, packbacker said: What do you think....12z at 96 vs 0z at 84 Yeah, you can see that the UKMet isn't as deep, isn't as sharp with the trough in the SE with this run vs. it's last run. It's pretty much perfect for us from upstate to Raleigh and NW. Previous run was perfect to the NW of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Hi everyone, can we please not post the link in main threads like this to the other forum? Do not want to spam. Thanks. Some weather input: GFS PARA (2 runs old) and 00z GFS is good for GA and into Midlands of SC. The 00z is a tad warmer and needs to be watched though. CAE received 7 inches or so while Florence jackpots with around 8.5-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said: That's entirely not true, I'll never forget what the models did Christmas '10 in a similar situation. I'll never throw in the towel for a big dog until the SW is on the West coast. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah, it was more hyperbole than anything else. How often do we see huge, massive snow hits in the 200+ time frame that peter out massively come game time? An awful lot. But on rare occasion, they do happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The friggin NAVGEM is wetter than the NAM and Canadian in GA and SC What does it mean bias wise? That the GFS is too suppressed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: Exactly! Then again, no one should take these model runs "literally." In contrast, one needs to realize we will never be able to sample the entire atmosphere, thus it's unreasonable for us to expect any individual model run to verify 100%. Moreover, it's conceivable that one of the 64 individual runs of the long range (384 hr. GFS) might even closely verify simply because of the number of subsequent runs during that period...not necessarily because it foresaw the dynamical evolution 10 days in advance, for example. I realize I'm not sharing any groundbreaking information (nor directing this post towards you, specifically), but rather a reminder that these models are fallible and one should anticipate subtle to major changes as we get closer to a prospective event; especially given that the models will contain more substantive data and be within an ever diminishing lead time. For the aforementioned reasons, it's important that the general populace understands that these model runs are used as valuable guidance to forecasters (aren't the forecast), and that even then, there's no such thing as a forecast that is "set in stone." But unfortunately a lot of people see these images on social media 5+ days in advance and take them literally. I wish there was a rule that the general public including people in here couldn't see any weather model past 4 days. That way people wouldn't see these crazy model runs and get their hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said: But unfortunately a lot of people see these images on social media 5+ days in advance and take them literally. I wish there was a rule that the general public including people in here couldn't see any weather model past 4 days. That way people wouldn't see these crazy model runs and get their hopes up. Many argue the models have gotten worse but in reality the reason for that perception is that they go so far out now. 20 years ago we had virtually nothing beyond 72 hours. So forecasts to day 4 or 5 were strictly guesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 NAVGEM the progressive model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah, it was more hyperbole than anything else. How often do we see huge, massive snow hits in the 200+ time frame that peter out massively come game time? An awful lot. But on rare occasion, they do happen. You are full of....hyperbole I kid of course GFS Ensemble Members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: You are full of....hyperbole I kid of course GFS Ensemble Members lol it's true! Looks like several good hits in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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