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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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EPS looks much like the OP as far as the axis of heaviest snows.  The mean went up to just over 2 inches in the axis that got the heaviest snows on the op.  This comes after very little on the 0z EPS run.  Looks like much better agreement with the Euro.  Hopefully we can get a clearer picture by this time tomorrow.

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2 minutes ago, deltadog03 said:

I also want to throw this out there...NO models did very good with this latest storm rainfall amounts...just saying...the models are ALL struggling.  CMC did the best I believe..hahaaha

Yeah that's a good point.  I was thinking about that earlier.  I'm not concerned about any qpf output 4 days out.  My first and foremost concern is always, always temps.  They tend to get out of line in a hurry in the SE and all you got left is little lambsydivey.

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Yeah that's a good point.  I was thinking about that earlier.  I'm not concerned about any qpf output 4 days out.  My first and foremost concern is always, always temps.  They tend to get out of line in a hurry in the SE and all you got left is little lambsydivey.

We're always on the same page there CR.  Verbatim, the Euro Ens Mean looks fine.  It's has a nice track off the Carolina coast for both of our areas...but it was warmer than it's last run, just like the Op.

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1 minute ago, deltadog03 said:

I ask this, anyone thought about convective feedback possibilities and choking out some moisture? 

I don't worry about that until I know the cold air and a system will be there.  Seems to be the last 24 hours and radar watching is when that talk starts.  It's the least of our worries at this point.

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3 minutes ago, deltadog03 said:

I ask this, anyone thought about convective feedback possibilities and choking out some moisture? 

I see this as more of a light to moderate event as opposed to a big dog that is slowing down and winding up....also, it's not a setup that supports a long fetch of extended overrunning from New Mexico to NC

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Just now, griteater said:

I see this as more of a light to moderate event as opposed to a big dog that is slowing down and winding up....also, it's not a setup that supports a long fetch of extended overrunning from New Mexico to NC

Good point. I didn't think about that. 

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I see this going to a really non event in the N. Foothills. I said all along if anybody does any good in NC it will be from RDU east. That's my forecast and I'm sticking to it. Until 12z tomorrow, then we'll see if any changes are needed. Good luck down South and East!!!


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3 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

I see this going to a really non event in the N. Foothills. I said all along if anybody does any good in NC it will be from RDU east. That's my forecast and I'm sticking to it. Until 12z tomorrow, then we'll see if any changes are needed. Good luck down South and East!!!

Funny, cause the area I like the most right now is NW Piedmont and N Foothills...up into Jonathon's area.  Bump this post later and rub it in when you are correct  :snowman:

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Funny, cause the area I like the most right now is NW Piedmont and N Foothills...up into Jonathon's area.  Bump this post later and rub it in when you are correct  :snowman:

Has anyone checked the WPC prediction maps lately?  Usually they have an area that's at least 100 miles NW of what the models are showing highlighted as the one to get the most snow.  In this case, it would be Big Frostyland.

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