FlatLander48 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, MotoWeatherman said: And while we are at it...here is the bottom dweller JMA for 12z Saturday. Sign me up...LOL. Hasn't the JMA been pretty consistent along with the UKMET showing a sizable storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, MotoWeatherman said: And while we are at it...here is the bottom dweller JMA for 12z Saturday. Sign me up...LOL. Does the JMA improve in the closer time frames? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said: Hasn't the JMA been pretty consistent along with the UKMET showing a sizable storm? It hasn't really been that consistent the past three days at all. Just now, GaStorm said: Does the JMA improve in the closer time frames? All models do but I put the JMA down at the bottom for novelty purposes. Just below the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Is it wrong I'm still holding out hope for the GFS?...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malak05 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said: And while we are at it...here is the bottom dweller JMA for 12z Saturday. Sign me up...LOL. Trying to equate temps listed and that fact that most of that falls Sat AM then I would imagine a swath of mostly snow from the Northern Border of GA to South Carolina and down well south of ATL of 5-8 inches of snow that's eyeballing the totals and temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, MotoWeatherman said: All models do but I put the JMA down at the bottom for novelty purposes. Just below the NAM. Ok. Kind of what I thought since it has been mentioned before but not much on verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, malak05 said: Trying to equate temps listed and that fact that most of that falls Sat AM then I would imagine a swath of mostly snow from the Northern Border of GA to South Carolina and down well south of ATL of 5-8 inches of snow that's eyeballing the totals and temps? If the JMA verified it would be pretty much all snow from the south ATL burbs northward. But I don't trust it as much as I trust the NAM (Not Accurate Much) model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 19 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said: And while we are at it...here is the bottom dweller JMA for 12z Saturday. Sign me up...LOL Moto, it is straight up sweet with the damming high too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Moto, it is straight up sweet with the damming high too Agreed...and not to far off the look of the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Was the precip shield more expansive to the NW on the UKmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 hour ago, ajr said: LOL..in this winter. I would take that in heartbeat for you guys down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malak05 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Well the 18z NAM is running... to hopefully help get the awful EURO taste out of our mouths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, NC_WX10 said: Was the precip shield more expansive to the NW on the UKmet? Site only shows out to 72 hours so who knows. But based on the upper level and surface look I would speculate yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like we need that energy coming out of Canada to get some better seperation from the Pacific disturbance moving in off the coast of Oregon and slow down a tick as it dives into the GOM. The UKmet has been cosistant with a decent seperation (compared to the EURO) thus colder air and more snow into deeper parts of the S/E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said: Agreed...and not to far off the look of the UKMET. On the flip side (lol) is the French model which is warm and west. Mtns to central VA would love it. It's similar to the Euro with lacking stream separation and not pressing the NS cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said: Was the precip shield more expansive to the NW on the UKmet? Thats a real tough answer if you're comparing to the Euro because the Euro timing is totally worlds off from any other model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said: Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like we need that energy coming out of Canada to get some better seperation from the Pacific disturbance moving in off the coast of Oregon and slow down a tick as it dives into the GOM. The UKmet has been cosistant with a decent seperation (compared to the EURO) thus colder air and more snow into deeper parts of the S/E I just want more separation. The more connected the faster it moves and the less it develops which means less of everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Ji said: LOL..in this winter. I would take that in heartbeat for you guys down there Oh sure, I'm not hating that look in MBY. That narrow strip and limited accumulations elsewhere is just dubious. In the south, you want nice accumulations EVERYWHERE around you, especially to the south of you to feel somewhat confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Thats a real tough answer if you're comparing to the Euro because the Euro timing is totally worlds off from any other model What's going to happen in the end SnowGoose? lol.....you always have good info with model biases etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 32 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: I thought this was a nice post from Allan's twitter (Raleighwx)...para NAM looks pretty good at 84 hours. NAM supposed to be better than it was at long leads. Good low position and cold at 84. EURO is my buddy, but I think this run is wonky. I have a growing concern for temps in our area, so that looks good. I can't shake that idea of the Euro being way off with its h5 ideas. Only thing I can say is that the UKMet led the way with the stronger cold northern stream press to get us to this point, so maybe it is on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said: Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like we need that energy coming out of Canada to get some better seperation from the Pacific disturbance moving in off the coast of Oregon and slow down a tick as it dives into the GOM. The UKmet has been cosistant with a decent seperation (compared to the EURO) thus colder air and more snow into deeper parts of the S/E We want the s/w to separate from the northern stream faster so it can slow down and develop, and allow the northern wave to move across and establish high pressure ahead of it. The longer it holds on with the northern stream, it weakens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: We want the s/w to separate from the northern stream faster so it can slow down and develop, and allow the northern wave to move across and establish high pressure ahead of it. The longer it holds on with the northern stream, it weakens. Seems like the key to this whole thing takes place about 48 hours from now and seeing how separate the s/w can stay from the trough. Do we start keying in on short term models at this point for clues like the RGEM and NAM, or are the globals still a better indicator? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, griteater said: What's going to happen in the end SnowGoose? lol.....you always have good info with model biases etc. Someone once told me there is a tendency between the French/Euro model when they agree. I cannot remember what it is, but someone in the SNE forum recently brought it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: I have a growing concern for temps in our area, so that looks good. I can't shake that idea of the Euro being way off with it's h5 ideas. Only thing I can say is that the UKMet led the way with the stronger cold northern stream press to get us to this point, so maybe it is on to something It's been a while since 99% of the model runs showed no temp problems for our area (just need a storm). I know the NW trend lurks. But if we get them all to go to crap at this point 4 days out, man that's going to be a punch in the gut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Someone once told me there is a tendency between the French/Euro model when they agree. I cannot remember what it is, but someone in the SNE forum recently brought it up Whoever that person is, I hate them, lol. Thanks for your tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: Whoever that person is, I hate them, lol. Thanks for your tidbits Nah, the French model will surrender. No worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Whoever that person is, I hate them, lol. Thanks for your tidbits Darn French...and NE folks. EPS looks better. Let's see what tonight brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 18z nam is decreasing separation again. ULL looks anemic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: Darn French...and NE folks. EPS looks better. Let's see what tonight brings. Haven't bothered to look yet, but just going strictly by the h5 setup and stream interaction, here are the 2 camps Euro/French/CMC vs. GFS/UKMet/JMA/NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Darn French...and NE folks. EPS looks better. Let's see what tonight brings. I forget what storm it was but we were riding the french model a couple of years ago. Not sure how it's been doing lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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