Shawn Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I would like to put this here (show's a real chance to my North): Quote Confidence in the long term period remains low on details but the 00z GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement with a potential winter storm over the Southeastern States. However significant timing issues remain. Both models show an amplified upper trough over the eastern CONUS into the weekend with a modified Arctic air mass over the area. Temperatures likely well below normal over the weekend. Confidence high on that point. Moisture streaming southeast from the Intermountain West and Great Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley by late Friday. Low pressure developing in the Gulf of Mexico tracking northeast across Florida...possibly a favorable storm track for winter weather. Cold air appears in place Saturday and the predominate precip type is snow given partial thickness and sounding profiles. Raised pops to chance Friday night and Saturday with potential for accumulating snow during a portion of the period. Clear late weekend into early next week but cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Shawn said: I would like to put this here (show's a real chance to my North): You don't think there is a good chance for this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raine1212 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 As always, we are iffy here, 40% chance for Saturday morning, per NWS. will keep up with you guys for my area in Evans, GA. Excellent work guys and Thank you for the updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 lol, I give up last night as the GFS caved, then the EURO, CMC, and Ukie go boom. Figures. I certainly appreciate the play by play of all you late nighters! I just can't stay up or I'm worthless the next day. GSP says it's going to snow. How much, who knows?! That's a good summation of where we are at this point. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...Though some uncertainty in the medium range portion of the forecast remains, it appears now that a decent chance for some wintry precip is taking shape across the area this weekend. Picking up at 12Z Friday...there is general model agreement in the overall pattern, with a broad upper trough over most of the CONUS and a chilly surface high nudging into the central plains. Major model disagreements in the timing/intensity of shortwaves rounding the upper trough, as well as uncertainty in the timing and track of a Gulf low that will provide moisture return into the southeast, though, make this forecast far from simple. The first question that must be answered is in regards to the timing of the arrival of the best upper support and moisture into the area, which is highly dependent upon the track of the previously mentioned Gulf surface low. As far as timing of this feature, the 00Z GFS has only just come into agreement with the faster ECMWF. The previous forecast, along with WPC, had been favoring an ECMWF-heavy model blend to deal with uncertainty in the timing of the low and associated best moisture arrival. This forecast reflects the same preference yet again, especially considering the 00Z GEFS mean bears more similarities to the deterministic 00Z ECMWF than the deterministic 00Z GFS. The ECMWF clears all moisture from the area by around 12Z Saturday, so the highest pops (though they are just chance) are maintained from 00Z-12Z Saturday. With profiles cold enough along and north of I-85 to support snow (and a rain-snow mix south of that) Friday night through Saturday morning, snow was the main p-type advertised in this package. Though the GEFS mean is more similar to the ECMWF than its own deterministic parent, the spread in the timing of the moisture arrival is so great that some slight chance pops will be maintained through the day Saturday and into Sunday morning, with precip starting as snow, transitioning to a rain-snow mix Saturday afternoon and then tapering off with a slight chance of snow very early Sunday morning in Piedmont and Foothills zones. Mountains will see all snow. As of the latest model runs...the 00Z GFS has taken up the former ECMWF trend of muting QPF response for the majority of the GSP CWA with a more southerly Gulf low track. The ECMWF, on the other hand, now mirrors earlier runs of the GFS that were more aggressive with moisture and therefore QPF. The main point to take away is that there is still MUCH uncertainty in any accumulations at this point. Stay tuned to future forecast updates for revisions. Finally, the forecast is actually greatly simplified by Sunday as a strong, cold surface high noses its way into the southeastern CONUS. The remainder of the medium range will therefore be dry, with both maximum and minimum temps about 10 degrees below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, J.C. said: You don't think there is a good chance for this area? Eh there is an abnormal high chance... but KCAE putting snow in the forecast for Lexington is never good.n I figure if we get a system at all, it will hug the coast or even come slightly inland on the Gulf. If so, happy new year to SC and 36F and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 16 minutes ago, odell.moton said: Yup I notice that too Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Hard to get excited about the Euro when it has absolutely no EPS support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 NAM looks like poo at 57. Strung out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: NAM looks like poo at 57. Strung out again. Long range NAM, FTW! Let's see the GFS gives us a bone! We need to stop the south ward slide! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Shawn said: Eh there is an abnormal high chance... but KCAE putting snow in the forecast for Lexington is never good.n I figure if we get a system at all, it will hug the coast or even come slightly inland on the Gulf. If so, happy new year to SC and 36F and rain. I know what you mean but with this set up the 850s should be further south, I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: NAM looks like poo at 57. Strung out again. It is. But it's in better shape than the same time stamp at 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: NAM looks like poo at 57. Strung out again. Looks better to me... The Eastern Canada vortex is much further east and heights in the Eastern Conus are higher which should create more room for amplification. Also, the wave out west is a little more consolidated and healthy looking compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Yeah nam much improved. The vort stays closed longer and much less interaction. Vort stronger across the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 12Z NAM has a 999 in Colorado at 60 hours. Was 1003 on the 6Z run. Definitely stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: Looks better to me... The Eastern Canada vortex is much further east and heights in the Eastern Conus are higher which should create more room for amplification. Also, the wave out west is a little more consolidated and healthy looking compared to 6z. I am kind of curious however about the elongated bundle of energy that stretches down from north of Intl falls into Iowa, with the way the s/w is significantly further east out west comparing 6Z to 12Z, if it has any significance to what type of consequence it will have on the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 72 hr NAM has snow breaking out in OK and KS as the western energy has significantly moved east southeast from its 6Z position. Guess you guys were right about it looking better. Energy in Great Lakes is kinked back more southwest on this run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Earlier hours of the NAM are telling. Not like we are relying of 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Interesting to note that the GEFS is actually trending the s/w stronger and farther south as the E Pac ridge trends stronger. Trend loop if you have a MC subscription: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/models/model_center.html/?&model=gfsens&run_time=06z¶m=500mbHGHT&map=NA&run_hour=78&loop=trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Shawn said: Earlier hours of the NAM are telling. Not like we are relying of 84 hours. No most def not. But imo good to see that its not as ridiculous looking as last night as you get into the latter frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 NAM is actually a trend in the right direction, juicier/more amped/further north with precip/moisture shield in 72-84 hour range than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: Interesting to note that the GEFS is actually trending the s/w stronger and farther south as the E Pac ridge trends stronger. Trend loop if you have a MC subscription: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/models/model_center.html/?&model=gfsens&run_time=06z¶m=500mbHGHT&map=NA&run_hour=78&loop=trend Thanks for posting, good catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Also, the NAM Para looks healthier with the wave than the regular NAM....same as last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 NAM is much improved. Notice the West coast ridge really pumping up compared to the 6z run which is going to really force our s/w to dig south and separate from the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 NAM is much improved. Notice the West coast ridge really pumping up compared to the 6z run which is going to really force our s/w to dig south and separate from the northern stream.Wouldn't that cause our storm to be amped and do a NW trend in GFS?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, TiltedStorm said: Wouldn't that cause our storm to be amped and do a NW trend in GFS? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Would cause it to amp up and trend NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Haven't posted in a while but I've been around here longer than most..... couple of really quick thoughts. #1. Love where we are at this point. To have a system showing up relatively consistently for several days this far in advance is great to see. The likelyhood of us getting at least a marginal winter event is looking good. #2. don't be shocked to see the models lose the system all together in the next day or so then have it come back (this happens with nearly every good storm we get around here). #3. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the GFS or the Euro throw us another big dog at some point. Very minor changes to the flow will cause major swings in the models (as others have said). #4. assuming we get within 48 hours of the storm and it is still showing up on the model DO NOT trust the crazy high qpf output the NAM shows.... I don't remember it ever being right on a winter storm for us. #5. we rarely get to track major winter storms around here so enjoy the ride the next few days..... just a few weeks ago many on here where lying at the bottom of the cliff after announcing winter was over or at the very least pushed back until February. Happy New Year everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I know it's the 84 hour NAM but the trends are good. 84 hours 700mb moisture and vertical velocities look great back in southern half of MS/AL. On to the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, TiltedStorm said: Wouldn't that cause our storm to be amped and do a NW trend in GFS? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Only if the GFS has the same look and feel like the NAM does at the same time step. The latest model discussion here is for the NAM (not the GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Wow said: NAM is much improved. Notice the West coast ridge really pumping up compared to the 6z run which is going to really force our s/w to dig south and separate from the northern stream. No doubt. Good start to the 12z suite for sure. Still think/hope that we see the models hold our s/w together more and more as we approach go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 6z Para GFS looks slightly better than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: 6z Para GFS looks slightly better than 0z. Looks like it just continued trending SE with the precip. LP is near Tampa at 105. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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