Reb Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Wow said: At 48 hrs, the NAM is lockstep with the 12z GFS. Out to 84 looks even more amped than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: EPS was definitely a step backward. Very light amounts for the ENS Mean. I hope that's not the trend. That was to be expected with the speed. It is focusing too much on the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Anybody remember 2 or three years ago, the big storm for NYC and CT, RI and such and the threads up there were bickering about runs of models and how each sucked and then they were looking at the NAM, one of the big two ( GFS and Euro) did a lot better?? Anybody recall that and what model!? I'm wanting to say it was GFS? It comes out on top, every once in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Reb said: Out to 84 looks even more amped than GFS. Not at 500mb...from what I can see. I compared 84 NAM to 90 GFS. GFS way more amped. NAM looks flat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 You can really see what each model is going to do looking at the 48 hr maps (valid 18z Jan 4). Euro has the 540dm line all the way into E Washington at that time while the GFS and NAM have it well back into Montana and the 546dm line cut off. Already obvious from there that the Euro was going draw it in more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Anybody remember 2 or three years ago, the big storm for NYC and CT, RI and such and the threads up there were bickering about runs of models and how each sucked and then they were looking at the NAM, one of the big two ( GFS and Euro) did a lot better?? Anybody recall that and what model!? I'm wanting to say it was GFS? It comes out on top, every once in awhile. nam and euro showed 2-3ft for nyc, and gfs showed much less and verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: nam and euro showed 2-3ft for nyc, and gfs showed much less and verified. Yes ! That's the one! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 model wars....We know how that ends right?? I actually put a little weight in all solutions and would say a blend btwn the euro and gfs is likely. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Matthew East on Facebook : All talk of model biases, strengths & weaknesses, etc... all valid, but we're dealing with handling of one small feature a little differently over the next 48 hours resulting in HUGE end result differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 TWC, I know, but they just showed their forecast maps for Friday night and Saturday, lots of snow and ice on that map, with precip shield of snow back into KY!! Going with the GFS, they are!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Kendra Kent keeping an eye on it! But, Chris Justus, is the man! And posts his thoughts on FB! He's a snow weenie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, Wow said: You can really see what each model is going to do looking at the 48 hr maps (valid 18z Jan 4). Euro has the 540dm line all the way into E Washington at that time while the GFS and NAM have it well back into Montana and the 546dm line cut off. Already obvious from there that the Euro was going draw it in more. Forgive me, I'm sure this is an ignorant question, but here goes. Why can't we knit together the best short range model (SREF, HRRR etc) and the best mid range model (NAM???) to determine where the starting point should be for the best long range models (GFS, Euro, UKMET etc) in say 48 hours? Isn't that ultimately what we are trying to figure out? What will the starting point be on Wednesday night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Matthew East on Facebook : All talk of model biases, strengths & weaknesses, etc... all valid, but we're dealing with handling of one small feature a little differently over the next 48 hours resulting in HUGE end result differences. Yes this is what I'm talking about. We should get come kind of consensus pretty soon I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: nam and euro showed 2-3ft for nyc, and gfs showed much less and verified. As good as the euro is at times it has its failures too..including its share of winter storms around here but for some reason there is this almost myth like belief that it's always right or that chances for a storm are not valid until or unless the euro shows it. Maybe it's because the gfs is ran 4 times per day and there is more info for the average person to digest from it but regardless it seems like the euros busts are hardly ever remembered while the gfs busts are always remembered. Fact is, although it's much better to have the euro on board than not, just because it's not right now doesn't mean the gfs is wrong or that something half way or leaning toward the gfs is either. It might very well win in the end but it's not a sure bet in my eyes that's for sure. .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 20 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Not at 500mb...from what I can see. I compared 84 NAM to 90 GFS. GFS way more amped. NAM looks flat Yes but maybe not as flat as EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 12z para gfs is dead on with the op. both with the thurs wave and the sat big dog. 2 runs in a row where the para has matched the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Lookout said: As good as the euro is at times it has its failures too..including its share of winter storms around here but for some reason there is this almost myth like belief that it's always right or that chances for a storm are not valid until or unless the euro shows it. Maybe it's because the gfs is ran 4 times per day and there is more info for the average person to digest from it but regardless it seems like the euros busts are hardly ever remembered while the gfs busts are always remembered. Fact is, although it's much better to have the euro on board than not, just because it's not right now doesn't mean the gfs is wrong or that something half way or leaning toward the gfs is either. It might very well win in the end but it's not a sure bet in my eyes that's for sure. .. Mathew was a great example. The Euro for a few days was sliding Mathew out to the east in behind Nicole as she broke down the ridging to his NE. The GFS stayed on a more westward solution and ended up being correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: 12z para gfs is dead on with the op. both with the thurs wave and the sat big dog. 2 runs in a row where the para has matched the op. A little more realistic with snow amounts with greater than one foot over most of central NC. Not the three feet from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, FallsLake said: A little more realistic with snow amounts with greater than one foot over most of central NC. Not the three feet from the GFS. I think most will be okay with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 RAH is leaning towards the Euro. Confidence in the forecast goes down the tubes after that as models diverge due to a system in the western Pacific that may or may not eject some dynamic energy that could evolve into a stronger southern stream low pressure system for the weekend. This scenario has not been corroborated by the other models and is inconsistent at this point and therefore this scenario has for now been thrown out as an outlier. Instead the forecast is based on the ECMWF solution which does not produce the southern stream low pressure system until much much later and instead develops a low over the Gulf of Mexico and brings it up the southeast coast on Saturday. It is very early to hammer out any details but at this time there is the possibility that precipitation falling, especially from the Triangle northwestward could fall in the form of snow. At this point, about half of the ensemble members are producing some measurable snow and the other half are not. If this scenario were to occur it would be in the Friday night through Saturday morning time frame and exiting by Saturday afternoon. Lows Friday night will drop into the 20s with highs on Saturday only in the mid to upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 19 minutes ago, Lookout said: As good as the euro is at times it has its failures too..including its share of winter storms around here but for some reason there is this almost myth like belief that it's always right or that chances for a storm are not valid until or unless the euro shows it. Maybe it's because the gfs is ran 4 times per day and there is more info for the average person to digest from it but regardless it seems like the euros busts are hardly ever remembered while the gfs busts are always remembered. Fact is, although it's much better to have the euro on board than not, just because it's not right now doesn't mean the gfs is wrong or that something half way or leaning toward the gfs is either. It might very well win in the end but it's not a sure bet in my eyes that's for sure. .. Nice to see you bud! That's a great point. Very good point actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The northern stream is more north/south oriented on the GFS/UKMET while the Euro is more baggy and pressing it more back to the SW.That needs to straighten up and kick east for separation for the energy. NAM early on looks like that so far too. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Solak said: RAH is leaning towards the Euro. Confidence in the forecast goes down the tubes after that as models diverge due to a system in the western Pacific that may or may not eject some dynamic energy that could evolve into a stronger southern stream low pressure system for the weekend. This scenario has not been corroborated by the other models and is inconsistent at this point and therefore this scenario has for now been thrown out as an outlier. Instead the forecast is based on the ECMWF solution which does not produce the southern stream low pressure system until much much later and instead develops a low over the Gulf of Mexico and brings it up the southeast coast on Saturday. It is very early to hammer out any details but at this time there is the possibility that precipitation falling, especially from the Triangle northwestward could fall in the form of snow. At this point, about half of the ensemble members are producing some measurable snow and the other half are not. If this scenario were to occur it would be in the Friday night through Saturday morning time frame and exiting by Saturday afternoon. Lows Friday night will drop into the 20s with highs on Saturday only in the mid to upper 30s. and for good reason, EPS is miserable for RDU. 7/50 ensemble members with 2"+ none above 4" or so, most are on the low end of the 2-4" range out of the 7. That's terrible. EPS has bounced back to higher totals before - but the trend is lower and lower with each run. Until that changes, look for them going all-in on the EPS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jon said: and for good reason, EPS is miserable for RDU. 7/50 ensemble members with 2"+ none above 4" or so, most are on the low end of the 2-4" range out of the 7. That's terrible. EPS has bounced back to higher totals before - but the trend is lower and lower with each run. Until that changes, look for them going all-in on the EPS mean. No reason to go all in on anything until the wave gets on the coast/shore and is sampled better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, BornAgain13 said: No reason to go all in on anything until the wave gets on the coast/shore and is sampled better. Exactly. If I was making the forecast I'd lean Euro too. Just the way it works, we'll see here shortly within the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 32 minutes ago, Lookout said: As good as the euro is at times it has its failures too..including its share of winter storms around here but for some reason there is this almost myth like belief that it's always right or that chances for a storm are not valid until or unless the euro shows it. Maybe it's because the gfs is ran 4 times per day and there is more info for the average person to digest from it but regardless it seems like the euros busts are hardly ever remembered while the gfs busts are always remembered. Fact is, although it's much better to have the euro on board than not, just because it's not right now doesn't mean the gfs is wrong or that something half way or leaning toward the gfs is either. It might very well win in the end but it's not a sure bet in my eyes that's for sure. .. Late January or beginning of February last year Euro had been showing 14-16 inches of snow for most of the week in the NW corner of SC before a storm hit this area. We ended up with nothing close to that, we had about and inch of snow and about two inches of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 sw coming in faster on the 18z. think this may be a north scenario, hope im wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 First wave looks further north. Looks a tad warmer also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I will say that the GFS is trending toward the Euro wrt the polar jet trending wesrward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, Wow said: I will say that the GFS is trending toward the Euro wrt the polar jet trending wesrward. Oh no, heartbreaker run incoming!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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