Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Crazy how far apart the Euro and GFS are. But even the smallest detail can make all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Not sure if this has been posted but just something to think about as we all watch these weenie runs of the GFS. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd TWO CAMPS OF SOLUTIONS EMERGE AT THE START OF DAY 3/THU...WITH THE 00Z GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA...THUS PRODUCING MORE SEPARATION WITH THE RESIDUAL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...AND THEREFORE ALLOWING THE NORTHWEST TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH LONGER. THE OTHER CAMP OF SOLUTIONS IS REPRESENTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER WITH THE CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH...THUS ALLOWING IT TO SLIGHTLY PHASE WITH THE RESIDUAL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST...WHICH THEN ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO EXIT THE NORTHWEST MORE QUICKLY. WHILE THE ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD IS HIGH...THEREFORE INDICATING LOW CONFIDENCE...RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN HIGHER WITH THE ECMWF-SCENARIO...WITH THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z PARALLEL GFS LEANING STRONGLY IN THE ECMWF DIRECTION. COMBINE THE 00Z CANADIAN...AND ITS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE THE 00Z GFS IS THE ODD MODEL OUT. THUS...THE PREFERENCE IS ABOUT 70 PERCENT IN THE ECMWF DIRECTION FOR ALL 7 DAYS...WITH MORE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BLENDED EARLY FOR DETAIL AND AMPLITUDE...AND MORE ENSEMBLES USED LATE DUE TO HIGHER UNCERTAINTY. THESE CHOICES HOLD AS WELL FOR THE EAST COAST...WHICH IF THE 00Z GFS WERE TO BE CORRECT...WOULD SUPPORT A WINTER STORM FOR PARTS OF THE EAST COAST NEXT SUNDAY. HOWEVER...FOR REASONS LISTED ABOVE...ITS SOLUTION IS NEAR THE WESTERN AND DEEP EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH ONLY ABOUT 4 OUT OF 100 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING IT AT THIS TIME. INSTEAD...PREFER A SOLUTION MORE OFFSHORE AND PROGRESSIVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Here is the Arpege at the end of it's 12z run. It looks similar to the Ukmet with timing and strength. I think this is a good compromise between the GFS solution vs. the CMC/Euro solutions. Verbatim, I think the Arpege and Ukmet are showing a nice 2 to 4 inch type event for most on this forum with a weak surface low tracking across the northern gulf. The good thing about these runs is, while weak, they are giving the first wave plenty of time to clear out and allow cold air to filter in. you beat me to it. it's precip is actually more expansive than the gfs at hour 102. overall though it is a nice compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER said: Where at in eastern NC? Just wondering where. WBell has 2-3 inches along a line centered from Fayetteville to VA Beach...it's a little NW of Wilmington before the accumulations start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 WPC tells us to get real, euro is king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I would gladly take a blend of the Euro and GFS and take half of what the GFS showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: WBell has 2-3 inches along a line centered from Fayetteville to VA Beach...it's a little NW of Wilmington before the accumulations start Thanks for all the info guys. I know I troll in the banter threads but I truly do enjoy the work you guys do ahead of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: WPC tells us to get real, euro is king. That WPC write up was "translation: southern snow...we don't bother with that group down there" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 So basically EURO is still showing snow just not nearly as much as the GFS???Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: That WPC write up was "translation: southern snow...we don't bother with that group down there" Yeah, JB must work for them. Lol. Let's all think positive and make it happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: That WPC write up was "translation: southern snow...we don't bother with that group down there" Yep, that's pretty much the way I took it too. They will forecast snow for us only if they have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: That WPC write up was "translation: southern snow...we don't bother with that group down there" Translation... we only care what happens along the coast from VA north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Brad P is doing a live facebook stream around 2:30. He always has great analysis of latest model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 17 minutes ago, griteater said: In all seriousness, a blend isn't bad right now. Could be a lot worse. Throw the GFS Ens Mean and UKMet into the blender too. Looks like the CMC Ens Mean was a little more suppressed this run on the sfc charts, but looked a little better/sharper with the trough at h5...it's pretty cold overall This is going to be one of the great model wars with the GFS/GEFS, it is on such an island. The differences at day 3 are just amazing...phase happy/leaving energy behind Euro v/s the progressive GFS. That ULL either gets left behind and then trails or it doesn't, I am not sure what a middle ground would look like. Someone is going to give come tomorrow 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I feel the solution falls in-between the gfs euro. The gfs has been king lately and rules the northern stream. Everyone has their gfs pom poms out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 One thing...in last night's Euro Ensemble run, there were as many mid atlantic centered hits as there were SE centered hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: This is going to be one of the great model wars with the GFS/GEFS, it is on such an island. The differences at day 3 are just amazing...phase happy/leaving energy behind Euro v/s the progressive GFS. That ULL either gets left behind and then trails or it doesn't, I am not sure what a middle ground would look like. Someone is going to give come tomorrow 12z. Middle ground would look like the UKMet/French Model. You like Great Britain and France, right? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Middle ground would look like the UKMet/French Model. You like Great Britain and France, right? lol What is a french model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: One thing...in last night's Euro Ensemble run, there were as many mid atlantic centered hits as there were SE centered hits So half its ensembles, weren't agreeing with the op solution, of suppressed!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 At least, by Wednesday morning we will know whether or not we get the wave separation to support a blockbuster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: What is a french model? http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=arpege&map=na&run=12&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 UK/GFS/Euro at 72....two agree and one doesn't. It would be great to score a win for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 If it makes anyone feel better the NAM kicks it out similar to the GFS... PS this should make no one feel better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Alan tweeted the GEFS snowfall lines. Take out all the high outliers and the mean was around 1-2 inches for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, griteater said: Middle ground would look like the UKMet/French Model. You like Great Britain and France, right? lol Your right...the UK does have a better surface reflection then the Euro and is in the middle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Who has the jma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: If it makes anyone feel better the NAM kicks it out similar to the GFS... PS this should make no one feel better Hey, you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 FWIW since the Euro upgrade was released last winter I've found its tended to have significant suppression issues on storm systems in the 48-96 hour range at times. The January blizzard was one where it performed badly until inside 48 hours, although it was not yet officially operational until 2/15 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Alan tweeted the GEFS snowfall lines. Take out all the high outliers and the mean was around 1-2 inches for RDU. At this point this is probably the most realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Who has the jma? Not sure if you're joking but in case you aren't - lines up with GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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