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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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4 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Good point...and this is the best time of year as far as sun angle goes. It's why i much rather have snow/ice this time of year than in feb or march..the potential for it to hang around on the ground a lot longer. 

+1000. Back end seasonal snows are gone faster than it takes them to accumulate. Been a long time since we had a dead of winter big sized event and got to enjoy for several days afterwards. 

Great chance here to get a 7 to 10 day stretch of true winter weather. 

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7 minutes ago, griteater said:

Out to 72 on Euro, ever so slight trend to get the northern stream out ahead of the Pac wave, but it's very slight...not separating the streams anything like the GFS

Looking at the 850 charts between the Euro and GFS they look the same.  The Euro is slightly north and closer to the SC coast. What am I not seeing that causes the divergence at hr 84?

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7 minutes ago, griteater said:

Out to 72 on Euro, ever so slight trend to get the northern stream out ahead of the Pac wave, but it's very slight...not separating the streams anything like the GFS

Still letting the northern jet shred it up. So odd to see the Euro and GFS against their biases.

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1 minute ago, RiftMania said:

Looking at the 850 charts between the Euro and GFS they look the same.  The Euro is slightly north and closer to the SC coast. What am I not seeing?

The main difference is at 500 and how the two resolve the system that comes ashore in the PAC NW. 

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1 minute ago, Jonathan said:

Unbelievable that we have THIS much separation between these two models within 96 hours. Just goes to show the complexity of the pattern.

Yep and likely won't figure out until Wed when the energy out west can be modeled within 60 hours or so on all models including mesoscale NAM. Hoping to figure it out sooner but not holding my breath.

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1 minute ago, Jonathan said:

Unbelievable that we have THIS much separation between these two models within 96 hours. Just goes to show the complexity of the pattern.

so typical of potential southeastern winter storms....would be nice to see for once the models latch on to a big storm solution and stick with it at this range. 

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Here is the Arpege at the end of it's 12z run. It looks similar to the Ukmet with timing and strength. I think this is a good compromise between the GFS solution vs. the CMC/Euro solutions.

Verbatim, I think the Arpege and Ukmet are showing a nice 2 to 4 inch type event for most on this forum with a weak surface low tracking across the northern gulf. The good thing about these runs is, while weak, they are giving the first wave plenty of time to clear out and allow cold air to filter in.

GZ_D5_PN_102_0000.gif

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Just now, Poimen said:

On the bright side, if we split the difference between the GFS/EC...we're still looking at about 15" for RDU! 

In all seriousness, a blend isn't bad right now.  Could be a lot worse.  Throw the GFS Ens Mean and UKMet into the blender too.

Looks like the CMC Ens Mean was a little more suppressed this run on the sfc charts, but looked a little better/sharper with the trough at h5...it's pretty cold overall

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