No snow for you Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Why? lol...happy at a model that vastly changes from run to run? We're not SNE, but we kinda know better at this point. Lol. I meant with this GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, No snow for you said: Lol. I meant with this GFS run. If that solutions holds, I will make you a moderator for a day here in the SE forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: If that solutions holds, I will make you a moderator for a day here in the SE forum Dang it. I guess I will never become a mod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 A few of the 18z ensemble members had this kind of solution so it's one of several possibilities. We're still 5-6 days out ya know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 So this "bad" GFS run gives me 3 inches of snow with freezing rain on top here in foothills of NC. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 If that solutions holds, I will make you a moderator for a day here in the SE forumLol! Ian cursed us mentioning a NW trend on Twitter. Ugh. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I remember it being said that you when the model drives a low into the CAD then it is wrong. Not sure what the actual weather would be but I would bet that a low pops off the SC, GA coast if this model run came to fruitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Finally dives at 150 over SC , but way too late. A shame, lots of QPF that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Ukmet still shreds the shortwave... looks like a very weak surface low reflection around New Orleans at 144hrs. My guess is that there would be some light snow streaking across our area with this solution.. maybe 1-3 inch type deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: If that solutions holds, I will make you a moderator for a day here in the SE forum Sounds like you are calling bollocks on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 According to this GFS run, WNC goes from Snow, to IP, to Rain, then back to Snow as the 850s crash. Would be an interesting scenario, to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 CMC has another decent run with snow from central Bama to NE NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Ukmet still shreds the shortwave... looks like a very weak surface low reflection around New Orleans at 144hrs. My guess is that there would be some light snow streaking across our area with this solution.. maybe 1-3 inch type deal? Looked like if finally brought some of the Pac wave out, but way north, basically through Montana before dropping it southeast into a very broad trough centered over Missouri...definitely not the sharp trough like GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Sounds like you are calling bollocks on that run. He knows I will drop the ban hammer harder than j burns for that one day. Time to clean up the SE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Looked like if finally brought some of the Pac wave out, but way north, basically through Montana before dropping it southeast into a very broad trough centered over Missouri...definitely not the sharp trough like GFS I was gonna ask if you get 12 or 6 hr panels on ukmet. This stuff is Tuesday night before it gets into raob data. Right now these waves are in the middle of nowhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: I was gonna ask if you get 12 or 6 hr panels on ukmet. This stuff is Tuesday night before it gets into raob data. Right now these waves are in the middle of nowhere 24 hour increments only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: I was gonna ask if you get 12 or 6 hr panels on ukmet. This stuff is Tuesday night before it gets into raob data. Right now these waves are in the middle of nowhere Oddly enough the main piece of energy in question has been has been spinning over Washington all day today. I would think it's been sampled fairly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Here at my location in Danville Va, 0z gives us close to 3", but just a little ways up the road, Roanoke to Lynchburg get 10-15". Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Oddly enough the main piece of energy in question has been has been spinning over Washington all day today. I would think it's been sampled fairly well. The kicker sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Man, our blocking in Greenland has trended weaker and weaker. I'm wondering if everything won't start trending this way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, burrel2 said: Oddly enough the main piece of energy in question has been has been spinning over Washington all day today. I would think it's been sampled fairly well. The SW that ejects the SW that spawns the second system is in Russia atm. Wont be in AK for another 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: The kicker sw Yea, and i'm sure the energy in the pacific will affect how hard the main s/w pulls out towards the pacific over the next few days. It seems like subtle changes will greatly affect the evolution of our system when you have a small cut offs just meandering around under a ridge like that. I remember following a shortwave around Southern Califronia a few years ago that looked like it was going to provide a storm for us. After a few days of promising model runs showing big winter storms, it wound up never kicking east and just sat there and spun around for a few days waiting for any semblance of cold air to be gone before ejecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 FWIW, the 18z NAVGEM was a perfect scenario/crush job. The 00z is squashed/suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Lakes low says "Hi" on the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Everybody is saying the GFS was a bad run but the snow map i'm looking at shows a decent hit in parts of North GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 15 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Man, our blocking in Greenland has trended weaker and weaker. I'm wondering if everything won't start trending this way... Agree. This hasn't been mentioned but it's definitely trended weaker. If we have to rely solely on timing, we're gonna be screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 15 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Everybody is saying the GFS was a bad run but the snow map i'm looking at shows a decent hit in parts of North GA. All ice. Maybe a short front end thump but then ice->rain. Looks like around a half inch in the favorable areas, maybe more snow than zr in Rabun County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 So the GFS Ensemble Mean is actually weaker than its previous run at 18z with the Oregon wave that kicks out...so the mean has a light snow event from N GA to Upstate thru a good bit of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 00z GFS Ens Mean Sat aftn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: 00z GFS Ens Mean Sat aftn That looks pretty good for a lot of folks on the board, grit. Not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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