BristowWx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 The issue seems there isn't a mechanism to force/bring it north. SER is on vacation. Well deserved as it's been working hard lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, griteater said: Sfc low moves across N FL and then off to the NE. some light snow in NC/SC....very light, but this is the setup we should shoot for overall...with expectations low. Yep agree with you and wow. It's a gamble could just root for 1st wave and have a shot at a dusting to 1 inch lollipop, but no doubt the 2cnd wave is so close really being a big dog and trajectory right on our benchmark. By big dog I'm talking 3 inch + snow and not Jan 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Until the EURO bites on something, NWS and local Mets aren't going to bite, either. Especially, Fishel. He hangs his hat on the EURO for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Does the cold air look to be marginal or are we solid in that department? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Not expecting much with this one frankly. Certainly not a big storm- *maybe* a really light dusting, but at this point I am anticipating nothing or flurries here. Hope I am wrong though..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, Wow said: The wave is there, just needs a little more separation between it and the PV. Very close, feeling good. Euro looked a lot like its own Ens Mean from last night CMC Ens Mean looks pretty good with the second wave: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Euro is really just on the cusp on showing something great. 850s look great just need the low to turn the corner a bit better. IMO, great look 5 days out for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Does the cold air look to be marginal or are we solid in that department? We are good on the cold. It's qpf only issue. This is one that's really better to be east of 85 as opposed to west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: We are good on the cold. It's qpf only issue. This is one that's really better to be east of 85 as opposed to west. For now...until the NW trend commences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: We are good on the cold. It's qpf only issue. This is one that's really better to be east of 85 as opposed to west. A Shetley special! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Does the cold air look to be marginal or are we solid in that department? If the 50 things in the setup work exactly right it's cold enough for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Not expecting much with this one frankly. Certainly not a big storm- *maybe* a really light dusting, but at this point I am anticipating nothing or flurries here. Hope I am wrong though..... When you say "here" are you referring to all of North GA ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Not bad day 6. These usually get NW and we end up cursing the NW trend. But.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: For now...until the NW trend commences. Let's all hope. Need just a nudge for a sharper trough and we'd be in business state wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: For now...until the NW trend commences. I can see the track getting closer to the coast, and if it does, then the precip shield will expand much farther to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 ^ Awesome, thanks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 That's a good look at day 6, straighten the trough out a bit and we should be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Great trend with the Euro. Love where we sit right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 We really won't have a good handle on this, until we get in the HRRR range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Great trend with the Euro. Love where we sit right now. Explain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, jburns said: Explain Track is close to something big based on past storms. Just need a little tweeking, and plenty of time for that. As long as they are showing a storm signal, we have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Got some wiggle room. If the low rapidly strengthens it will pull in NW.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Well I like the fact the Euro has a storm, I hate that precip is weak and doesn't start till the system hits the Atlantic. That rarely works out. Need to tap the gulf. It looks like it passed where it needs to be but there's no moisture tap. Baby's steps maybe? That run didn't make me rejump off the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Track is close to something big based on past storms. Just need a little tweeking, and plenty of time for that. As long as they are showing a storm signal, we have a shot. 3 Ok Great. You're using analogs. Which? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just now, jburns said: Ok Great. You're using analogs. Which? Just know usually when we have a track going off the coast can bring us good storms. Hopefully more runs will show more moisture and it pulling NW. The NW trend has been pretty reliable the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, jburns said: Ok Great. You're using analogs. Which? Somewhere in tha meteorological, Einstein like brain, Jan 2000 is floating around!! That's his only anal log! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Somewhere in tha meteorological, Einstein like brain, Jan 2000 is floating around!! That's his only anal log! Love the Jan 2000 analogue.. if we could get a repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 More hits this time on the GEFS for Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 We all know that the Euro has had a bias of over-amping storm systems. I don't know if it is still there after the recent upgrade. If it is, then we should see it spit out a ridiculous storm in the 72 hour time-frame only to temper it back to a weaker system as we approach verification time. The model runs over the next 24 hours should give us a general idea of whether we are looking at a track that is farther away from the coast or if we have a closer trend developing. I am not really looking at the precip output as much as I am the track at this point. As many have said already, cold air does not appear to be a problem. Now we can focus on the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 E12 gives Shetley close to 2 feet. That would be rather ironic. Anyway, that would be the benchmark storm for virtually this entire forum for years to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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