January 2017 Discussion & Observations

[PB GFI]

This argues for a trough in the East .

 

 

 

PATTERN BREAKDOWN ON THE  EPS DAY 15 ? 

AGAIN ??? 

 

 

NEG EPO/NEG WPO adjust the NEG east .

 

 

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

 

Looking at the value for the PNA for the Boxing Day blizzard, you would have thought there was no ridging in the West for our storm. But there was a very sharp ridge in place that allowed the energy to take such a nosedive as it did. Maybe it was because it was a bit east of the traditional location where you would expect it to result in a +PNA?

I think the ao/nao drove that storm...they both were very negative for a long time...

[frd]

38 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I think the ao/nao drove that storm...they both were very negative for a long time...

I agree it was related to the AO and to a degree the NAO.

I believe the winter's only real dive ( D, J , F ) for the - AO and - NAO happened near that time frame and prior, maybe it was later in March that we had another big drop in those indices.   

[nzucker]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

By January 10th the pattern has completely broken down on the gefs 

As I said to Isotherm, the AK block is TOO FAR WEST. A ridge overthe Aleutians lowers heights out west...we need the block over Fairbanks/Yukon Territory.

Given the weak -NAO west, I'd still expect a slightly colder look. But it's not ideal.

[nzucker]

3 hours ago, PB GFI said:

This argues for a trough in the East .

 

 

 

PATTERN BREAKDOWN ON THE  EPS DAY 15 ? 

AGAIN ??? 

 

 

NEG EPO/NEG WPO adjust the NEG east .

 

 

A ridge over eastern Labrador is NOT a -NAO. You can see lower than normal heights over Greenland. The AK block being so far west also displaces the PV into Asia. Not as much of a ridge bridge.

[PB GFI]

6 hours ago, nzucker said:

A ridge over eastern Labrador is NOT a -NAO. You can see lower than normal heights over Greenland. The AK block being so far west also displaces the PV into Asia. Not as much of a ridge bridge.

?

What does that have to do about a post about a -  EPO/- WPO  pushing on the SE ridge correcting the EPD day 15 ridge again ? 

 

- EPO/-WPO sends HP down through Manitoba into the UPW , it mutes the ridge it means . The mean NEG aims itself  between Montana and the lakes not Washington state .

 

Look at the old day 15 - vs the New Day 8 

 

 

Look at what day 8 at 500 looks like now . That NEG off Japan correlates to a trough in the east .  

 

I made no mention of the NAO , my posts are Pacific weighted .

 

[Allsnow]

Gefs and eps was ran out of metfans basement today 

[Morris]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Gefs and eps was ran out of metfans basement today 

He's making funny faces.

[nzucker]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Gefs and eps was ran out of metfans basement today 

Much more of a -NAO there as the block curls back into Greenland. Models have been waffling about whether that block can retrograde and build across the pole, or if the ridge moves on into Ireland like earlier this December. That's a BEAUTIFUL pattern, and if the NAO continued to develop, you could easily see a closed low in the TN/MS Valley leading to a major snowstorm.

The one area where I disagree with Isotherm is that I do NOT see January as a repeat of December. The AK block looks stronger and more permanent, there is at least transient ATL support (vs none in Dec), and climo allows for us to receive more significant snowfall from SWFEs and overrunning on Jan 10 than on Dec 10...

[PB GFI]

Thats a day 10 snowstorm. 

The 6z day 12 GEFS is stronger in the east with the trough again  than the old day 14 at 6z which had the BS ridge 

The models keep having to adjust to the NEG over Japan / WPO and the ridge bulding through Alaska/EPO.

 

The EPS is colder Jan 5 thru 10 at 0z the new day  7 to 12 then its 8 to 13 from yesterday at 0z .

Cant post side by sides , will do so later , but you guys can go look for yourself.

 

 

[PB GFI]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Last winter proved that transient cold lasting 3-5 days is enough for snow if we get the right storm track.

I think this period is 15 days not 3 to 5 .

I argued this back in Dec and Dec 8 thru 21 ended up  - 4 when that period was called transient too .

This will be stronger, the EPS shows that  and this time it will snow .

My  issue with the guidance in this pattern is day 13 to 15.

Either the trough in Europe WPO EPO features are all wrong or the ridge is .

The guidance is correctly reading the -PNA so it just kicks the ridge up .

But if we go back in here where we started the disco you can see all the adjustments. 

Yesterday the GEFS was posted and the post was the pattern breaks down.

A  day later the day 12 ensembles are already leaking the trough back through the lakes 

 

That SER is going to have a tough time staying there with those other features .

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

I think this period is 15 days not 3 to 5 .

I argued this back in Dec and Dec 8 thru 21 ended up  - 4 when that period was called transient too .

This will be stronger, the EPS shows that  and this time it will snow .

My  issue with the guidance in this pattern is day 13 to 15.

Either the trough in Europe WPO EPO features are all wrong or the ridge is .

The guidance is correctly reading the -PNA so it just kicks the ridge up .

But if we go back in here where we started the disco you can see all the adjustments. 

Yesterday the GEFS was posted and the post was the pattern breaks down.

A  day later the day 12 ensembles are already leaks the trough back through the lakes 

 

That SER is going to have a tough time staying there with those other features .

Great post.

Question - do you know the record for a negative PNA, and do you believe that we will see a flip (even if short lived) to positive in January?

[PB GFI]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Great post.

Question - do you know the record for a negative PNA, and do you believe that we will see a flip (even if short lived) to positive in January?

 

I dont see a long term POS PNA in the means . There could be a transient feature but on balance , I think a piece of the trough will keep splitting off and head west over the Rockies and maintain the NEG  .

For us I believe another piece will focus itseld through the upper midwest.

I am PACIFIC oriented in my forecasting and believe what is downstream  pattern wise is the driver and not the ATLANTIC. 

I dont really concern myself with the NAO , thats for the KU hunters , I trade Nat Gas along with other products so I am more focused on temp anomalies and pattern recognition. 

 

Dont get me wrong , the SER will be present but its in SE after the 5th . That may actually help not supress systems , but when I see the WPO/ EPO negative , I dont buy the  buldge all the way to New England. 

When the WPO and EPO break down , then it will be time to roll up the shirt sleeves .

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

The reason the guidance is only showing Jan5-10 for the coldest is the strong -EPO spike forces the low south near British Columbia and 

this eventually brings the SE Ridge back into play post January 10th. This coming cold pattern won't be as cold as the one in mid-December.

But we can get by with stale cold with small neg departures for snow with the right storm track. 

 

wow if that's true, there was some talk of Jan 85 cold just a few days ago....time will tell

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

wow if that's true, there was some talk of Jan 85 cold just a few days ago....time will tell

There was no chance of Jan 85 cold here in the January 5-10 or 12 time frame. That was a much different pattern.

[PB GFI]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

The reason the guidance is only showing Jan5-10 for the coldest is the strong -EPO spike forces the low south near British Columbia and 

this eventually brings the SE Ridge back into play post January 10th. This coming cold pattern won't be as cold as the one in mid-December.

But we can get by with stale cold with smaller neg departures for snow with the right storm track. 

 

 

Chris go to day 15 ( Jan 13 )  on the EPS . Stick your hand over the NE.

Look at how deep that trough is in Japan .

Look at the Pos through Alaska. 

Look at the trough in Europe .

You know what that is going to yield in the EC the 10 th thru the 15th.

 

We just saw the correction day 8 thru 13 , why is the same Euro error going to be right ? 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

There was no chance of Jan 85 here in the January 5-10 or 12 time frame. That was a much different pattern.

Hopefully we can get a 2nd shot of cold later in the month.  If the EPO and/or WPO break down too fast it's torch time....I have my doubts as to whether we ever get a real -NAO so I think our help comes mainly from the PAC

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

 

 

[bluewave]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Hopefully we can get a 2nd shot of cold later in the month.  If the EPO and/or WPO break down too fast it's torch time....I have my doubts as to whether we ever get a real -NAO so I think our help comes mainly from the PAC

 

The weeklies have been hinting at a more +PNA potential later in January as the La Nina weakens. But we'll see how things go.

[nzucker]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

wow if that's true, there was some talk of Jan 85 cold just a few days ago....time will tell

It won't be that cold with the EPO block so far west and the main PV in Eurasia. To get Jan 85 cold, you need a ridge oriented over western Canada/Yukon/eastern AK with a PV coming through New England or the eastern GL. Not going to happen with the trough out west and the heart of the cold on the other side of the hemisphere

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The weeklies have been hinting at a more +PNA potential later in January as the La Nina weakens. But we'll see how things go.

I'm surprised the SE ridge has been so strong given the weak Nina....as it weakens further we're practically in a La Nada state

[PB GFI]

Just now, bluewave said:

 I think the peak of what cold we get is in the Jan-5 to 10 or 12 time frame. But the pattern is set for a relaxation following that.

 

Ok , so now its 5 thru 12th ?  jk.

On balance 5th thru 20th is the call , is there a 1 or 2 day spike because of a cutter , sure 

We cut in great patterns , but it would just drill back in .

I dont just look at models , I look to see why they are wrong .

Yesterdays GFS ensembles are already pulling back .

I see your argument , I just respectfully disagree .

All good man 

 

[PB GFI]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

I'm surprised the SE ridge has been so strong given the weak Nina....as it weakens further we're practically in a La Nada state

 

The WPO and EPO went pos after the 20th , the SER was not strong December 5 thru 20 .They go NEG again , so the models mute it .

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

wow if that's true, there was some talk of Jan 85 cold just a few days ago....time will tell

Such chatter for the first half of January was irresponsible. The January 1985 pattern featured a super block. Nothing like that was modeled.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, PB GFI said:

 

The WPO and EPO went pos after the 20th , the SER was not strong December 5 thru 20 .They go NEG again , so the models mute it .

a muted ridge would work-that gives us a storm track to our south....of course we do need it just muted enough....

[nzucker]

Just now, PB GFI said:

 

Ok , so now its 5 thru 12th ?  jk.

On balance 5th thru 20th is the call , is there a 1 or 2 day spike because of a cutter , sure 

We cut in great patterns , but it would just drill back in .

I dont just look at models , I look to see why they are wrong .

Yesterdays GFS ensembles are already pulling back .

I see your argument , I just respectfully disagree .

All good man 

 

I think we all basically agree that there's a window for snow and cold from Jan 5-15, give or take a day. The main Nor'easter potential looks to be Jan 6-9 w the NAO block and models already showing something to the south. There's some disagreement on the intensity or extremity of the pattern. But even Bluewave admits we may reload with a +PNA later in January.

[PB GFI]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

a muted ridge would work-that gives us a storm track to our south....of course we do need it just muted enough....

 

I think the day 10 threat is real .Gona focus that 1st.

We need that to drop .

[Allsnow]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

wow if that's true, there was some talk of Jan 85 cold just a few days ago....time will tell

Who talked about that Jan 1985? That's idiotic to bring that up. Is that something from a weenie board? 

[PB GFI]

5 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I think we all basically agree that there's a window for snow and cold from Jan 5-15, give or take a day. The main Nor'easter potential looks to be Jan 6-9 w the NAO block and models already showing something to the south. There's some disagreement on the intensity or extremity of the pattern. But even Bluewave admits we may reload with a +PNA later in January.

 

I like the day 10 storm , if the Atlantic blocking holds its real  .

I saw the weeklies , I have been burned each of the last 2 years with them so I dont look anymore.

We made our point , good disco.

Watching for  poss snow.

[nzucker]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I'm surprised the SE ridge has been so strong given the weak Nina....as it weakens further we're practically in a La Nada state

As Isotherm points out, the pattern resembles a much stronger Nina, and that is why he used 73-74 and 75-76, two strong cold ENSO events, as analogs. The weak Nina is being augmented by the -AAM/cold stratospheric vortex/NPAC SST cooling/low ozone...making it look like a strong La Nina in the H5 means.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Ok , so now its 5 thru 12th ?  jk.

On balance 5th thru 20th is the call , is there a 1 or 2 day spike because of a cutter , sure 

We cut in great patterns , but it would just drill back in .

I dont just look at models , I look to see why they are wrong .

Yesterdays GFS ensembles are already pulling back .

I see your argument , I just respectfully disagree .

All good man 

 

No problem. I just try to look for the peak times in 500 mb patterns. Jan 5-10 or 12 looks like it will be the coldest in the January 1-15 period.

Beyond that I have no idea how long any relaxation in the pattern will last. I will be most interested to see if we we can put together 

a decent -EPO/+PNA interval in the January 20 to February 28th time frame with the weakening La Nina. Would be nice if we could

build a bridge over the top with a -AO.